Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
I live at the edge of her district....see lots of signs.
“the Souls for Polls the Dems were counting on did NOT show Speedy. Sorry for you!!”
To be exact, Sorry for the Ds.
“358K / 9 days is 40K votes per day to reduce lead to 0.”
Very unlikely to reach 0.
Dem lead under 300k is winnable.
Under 200k is gravy.
Under 100k, I’ll do a back flip. But probably end up in hospital.
I only like polls showing us winning.
floridalife68,
You are on the ground in FL, fighting in the trenches. We owe you a debt of gratitude.
We love the voter registration adds and door knocks.
I believe the net voter registration adds will be the margin of victory.
Go to the beach and enjoy.
Cheers.
WOW!!! Good to hear confirmation from someone firsthand!
They are certainly much more enjoyable.
No they won’t. FL is under GOP government.
And there’s another poll showing Trump up 2.5%...so let it go.
Population of Liberty County is small. It’ll be red on Election Day.
Garbage poll. Trump is going to win Texas with a comfortable margin. If Trump thought he was losing Texas, don’t you think he would be here? We are winning AZ, and you don’t win AZ and lose Texas. Many false assumptions in that poll, that Texas Republicans are mad at Trump about the virus, but in fact, we are made at Abbott for keeping the lockdowns going.
No, we are going to hold AZ. We are up almost 3% in that State.
So why did you say AZ is going to flip?
Yes, it has been measured in national polls like Gallop and Rassmussen
The GOP is going to turnout more then 81% this year!
A great news tweet from super-political-bettor Robert Barnes. He puts huge $$ in his bets and, when talking to pollster Richard Baris, knows so much about the micro details of vote trends. He’s worth listening to.
From 12 hours ago, about Rust Belt voters in particular:
Robert Barnes @Barnes_Law
Important trend from a wide range of data sources: the @benshapiro type voter in religious conservative northern communities, from the dutch reformed in western Michigan to the Pennsylvania dutch, middle class lutherans & methodists across the midwest are coming home to Trump.
“So why did you say AZ is going to flip?”
Misunderstanding. AZ isn’t going to flip from R to D.
AZ is going to flip in the betting markets from Biden to Trump.
Florida and NC recently flipped in betting markets from Biden to Trump on PredictIt. NC is close to 50/50 and just went back to Biden at 51 cents.
AZ is right now at 56 cents Biden. That means 56% odds Biden takes AZ according to those betting.
I think AZ will flip to Trump in betting markets before the election.
Take a look at the USA map at https://www.predictit.org/
When AZ and NC are red in that map and we are close to that, the map looks pretty much where we were heading into the 2016 election. Trump will need to win one of PA/MI/WI/MN for the presidency.
VBM has some sizeable numbers today.
Ds increasing lead by 10k.
Last Sunday only increased lead by 2k.
With no mail today, seems unusual. Maybe people are dropping VBM ballots off in person at offices.
probably already dropped off and just now counted, assuming counters work Sunday.
This also suggests these numbers are post rejection screening.
Possible.
Moves D VBM returns over 66% as Ravi noted.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.