Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Florida Early Voting Stats (Close of Business10/24): Republicans now have a 227k lead in in-person early voting in FL
Joe is Done ^

Posted on 10/24/2020 3:59:08 PM PDT by springwater13

Republicans are rocking early voting in Florida. Republican lead in IPEV is now 227k. Democrats overall lead is down to 365k and decreasing by 30k or so daily. It is now very possible that the Democrats early voting lead will be under 100k before election day when Trump's hundreds of thousands of high propensity voters will swarm the polls.

There are some weak spots. Republicans are under performing in early voting in Jacksonville (Duval), Sarasota, Orlando.

They are waaaaaay overperforming in Miami-Dade County.

(Excerpt) Read more at joeisdone.github.io ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-47 next last
To: LS; Ravi; Coop; bort; SpeedyInTexas

Also, the site isn’t going to push updates for about 3 hours, unfortunately. Something happened at the server end and I won’t be able to get to it until then.


21 posted on 10/24/2020 4:38:30 PM PDT by byecomey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Mozzafiato
I just posted another article, from it:

Overall, Black voter and Hispanic voter turnout as a share of the early and absentee vote is higher than at this stage in 2016. But that’s mainly due to voting by older, high-propensity voters, who were expected to turn out any way, Tyson said. Democrats have led the way in turning out far more of these reliable voters than Republicans, who have 401,000 more high-propensity voters itching to cast ballots in person.

The RATS are using up their ammo ...

22 posted on 10/24/2020 4:44:35 PM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: frank ballenger
Oops. Election officials lost all those pro-Trump votes. Gosh durn it all. Here come new ones for Biden. We’ll be careful with those. Someone want to tell me that could not happen?

Why didn't it happen in 2016 for Trump/Clinton?

23 posted on 10/24/2020 4:49:30 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: springwater13

Not going to work especially since they(MSM) have attacked him non-stop for the last 3 years.


24 posted on 10/24/2020 4:50:22 PM PDT by conservativepoet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: wareagle7295; byecomey
If we have 300000 supervoters left, and they are 300K plus up, isn’t that not a good thing?

It's a good thing. The GOP is cutting into the Dem lead (VBM + IPEV) by about 30K ballots cast per day. And seven heavily GOP counties just started IPEV today. Nine days left until 11/3. Potentially 9 x 30K (average deficit reduction) = 270K. Could conceivably be a virtual draw going into election day. Not a good position for Democrats. Some people are estimating a 100K overall lead for Dems going into election day. Still not a good position for Dems, given that so many are voting by mail and so afraid of the Wuhan Virus, and the GOP still has so many voters chomping at the bit to vote in person. Republicans traditionally win on election day.

Byecomey has mentioned this stat frequently, but it's worth repeating. In 2016 the Democrats led by 310K ballots cast in NC after early voting. They lost the Tarheel State by ~178K votes. That's an election day swing of nearly a half million votes in one state (presuming all Dem ballots = Dem votes).

25 posted on 10/24/2020 4:59:26 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Coop; bort

I think that’s Bort who likes to mention the stat, but yes.


26 posted on 10/24/2020 5:05:37 PM PDT by byecomey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: byecomey

How does a party have negative super voters? Why isn’t 0 the lower bound?


27 posted on 10/24/2020 5:06:16 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: byecomey; bort
You're correct. bort = NC, bc = FL. My apologies to you both.

In my defense, I'm an idiot.

28 posted on 10/24/2020 5:08:28 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: byecomey

Aren’t all locations closed now?


29 posted on 10/24/2020 5:31:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Mozzafiato

GOP had a massive registration effort, which added many new GOP voters. The GOP will have 40% show up on election day, the Democrats 10%.


30 posted on 10/24/2020 5:32:33 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas
Speedy, what are the #s telling you about Florida. No rose colored glasses- just the truth. Are we doing well? 😉
31 posted on 10/24/2020 5:40:36 PM PDT by redheadedshannon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

The 2016 number is EV supervoters. Eating into ED supervoters. That’s what the TargetSmart math is saying.


32 posted on 10/24/2020 5:42:27 PM PDT by byecomey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Or to put it another way, the Democrats and NPAs now have more 2020 Early Voting Supervoters than in 2016. Occam’s razor says that they’re dipping into 2016 ED supervoters.


33 posted on 10/24/2020 5:45:35 PM PDT by byecomey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: LS

Well that makes it more convenient!


34 posted on 10/24/2020 5:52:38 PM PDT by byecomey
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: j.havenfarm

I’m confident Duval (Jax) and Sarasota will perform...not sure about Orlando....


35 posted on 10/24/2020 5:52:39 PM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man, a subject.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: springwater13

This early voting lead is just telling the democrats how many votes they need to fabricate to win


36 posted on 10/24/2020 5:57:42 PM PDT by JerryBlackwell (some animals are more equal than others)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Changing voter affiliation is easy in FL. More than a few IPEV Ds are really Trumpies who switched to vote for Comrade Bernie in the March 17 D primary.

These ersatz Ds are IPEV for PotUS.


37 posted on 10/24/2020 5:59:46 PM PDT by gasport (Vote Democrat . . . Win stupid stuff)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: gasport

I doubt there are any ersatz Rs.


38 posted on 10/24/2020 6:01:16 PM PDT by gasport (Vote Democrat . . . Win stupid stuff)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: redheadedshannon

No rose colored glasses.

Ds are over performing in vote by mail.

Rs are taking it to them with in person early voting.

I think D turnout will exceed 2016. In 2016 D turnout was 74.4%. Maybe 77-78% this year. We will have a better feel with another week of VBM and IPEV.

We need R turnout to approach 2016 when it was 81.2%

I think it will be a close race in Florida with Trump winning in the 1.0-1.5% range.

He won 2016 with 1.2%.


39 posted on 10/24/2020 6:09:57 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: byecomey

“The 2016 number is EV supervoters. Eating into ED supervoters. That’s what the TargetSmart math is saying.”

Got it.


40 posted on 10/24/2020 6:11:06 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-47 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson