No rose colored glasses.
Ds are over performing in vote by mail.
Rs are taking it to them with in person early voting.
I think D turnout will exceed 2016. In 2016 D turnout was 74.4%. Maybe 77-78% this year. We will have a better feel with another week of VBM and IPEV.
We need R turnout to approach 2016 when it was 81.2%
I think it will be a close race in Florida with Trump winning in the 1.0-1.5% range.
He won 2016 with 1.2%.
One important note.
If D turnout goes up and R turnout stays the same, how does Trump win with a similar percentage to 2016?
New voter registrations. Rs cut Dem voter registration lead in Florida to 134k from 300k.
Same in PA, NC, AZ
Biden and Dems canceled voter registrations and the ground game because of the virus.
If Trump wins, history will fault the Biden ground game.
Trump would have cruised to re-election with a great economy if the virus hadn’t come along. In the end the virus may have knee-capped the Dem ground game and helped Trump in that respect.
Steve Schale, Dem Florida strategist has publicly complained about Dem voter registration in Florida - or lack thereof.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/republicans-bright-spot-voter-registration-push-73708311