Posted on 10/24/2020 3:59:08 PM PDT by springwater13
Republicans are rocking early voting in Florida. Republican lead in IPEV is now 227k. Democrats overall lead is down to 365k and decreasing by 30k or so daily. It is now very possible that the Democrats early voting lead will be under 100k before election day when Trump's hundreds of thousands of high propensity voters will swarm the polls.
There are some weak spots. Republicans are under performing in early voting in Jacksonville (Duval), Sarasota, Orlando.
They are waaaaaay overperforming in Miami-Dade County.
(Excerpt) Read more at joeisdone.github.io ...
Also, the site isn’t going to push updates for about 3 hours, unfortunately. Something happened at the server end and I won’t be able to get to it until then.
Overall, Black voter and Hispanic voter turnout as a share of the early and absentee vote is higher than at this stage in 2016. But that’s mainly due to voting by older, high-propensity voters, who were expected to turn out any way, Tyson said. Democrats have led the way in turning out far more of these reliable voters than Republicans, who have 401,000 more high-propensity voters itching to cast ballots in person.
The RATS are using up their ammo ...
Why didn't it happen in 2016 for Trump/Clinton?
Not going to work especially since they(MSM) have attacked him non-stop for the last 3 years.
It's a good thing. The GOP is cutting into the Dem lead (VBM + IPEV) by about 30K ballots cast per day. And seven heavily GOP counties just started IPEV today. Nine days left until 11/3. Potentially 9 x 30K (average deficit reduction) = 270K. Could conceivably be a virtual draw going into election day. Not a good position for Democrats. Some people are estimating a 100K overall lead for Dems going into election day. Still not a good position for Dems, given that so many are voting by mail and so afraid of the Wuhan Virus, and the GOP still has so many voters chomping at the bit to vote in person. Republicans traditionally win on election day.
Byecomey has mentioned this stat frequently, but it's worth repeating. In 2016 the Democrats led by 310K ballots cast in NC after early voting. They lost the Tarheel State by ~178K votes. That's an election day swing of nearly a half million votes in one state (presuming all Dem ballots = Dem votes).
I think that’s Bort who likes to mention the stat, but yes.
How does a party have negative super voters? Why isn’t 0 the lower bound?
In my defense, I'm an idiot.
Aren’t all locations closed now?
GOP had a massive registration effort, which added many new GOP voters. The GOP will have 40% show up on election day, the Democrats 10%.
The 2016 number is EV supervoters. Eating into ED supervoters. That’s what the TargetSmart math is saying.
Or to put it another way, the Democrats and NPAs now have more 2020 Early Voting Supervoters than in 2016. Occam’s razor says that they’re dipping into 2016 ED supervoters.
Well that makes it more convenient!
I’m confident Duval (Jax) and Sarasota will perform...not sure about Orlando....
This early voting lead is just telling the democrats how many votes they need to fabricate to win
Changing voter affiliation is easy in FL. More than a few IPEV Ds are really Trumpies who switched to vote for Comrade Bernie in the March 17 D primary.
These ersatz Ds are IPEV for PotUS.
I doubt there are any ersatz Rs.
No rose colored glasses.
Ds are over performing in vote by mail.
Rs are taking it to them with in person early voting.
I think D turnout will exceed 2016. In 2016 D turnout was 74.4%. Maybe 77-78% this year. We will have a better feel with another week of VBM and IPEV.
We need R turnout to approach 2016 when it was 81.2%
I think it will be a close race in Florida with Trump winning in the 1.0-1.5% range.
He won 2016 with 1.2%.
“The 2016 number is EV supervoters. Eating into ED supervoters. That’s what the TargetSmart math is saying.”
Got it.
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