Posted on 10/24/2020 3:59:08 PM PDT by springwater13
Republicans are rocking early voting in Florida. Republican lead in IPEV is now 227k. Democrats overall lead is down to 365k and decreasing by 30k or so daily. It is now very possible that the Democrats early voting lead will be under 100k before election day when Trump's hundreds of thousands of high propensity voters will swarm the polls.
There are some weak spots. Republicans are under performing in early voting in Jacksonville (Duval), Sarasota, Orlando.
They are waaaaaay overperforming in Miami-Dade County.
(Excerpt) Read more at joeisdone.github.io ...
Lot’s of Republicans/Indies will vote on election day including myself.
Oops. Election officials lost all those pro-Trump votes. Gosh durn it all. Here come new ones for Biden. We’ll be careful with those.
Someone want to tell me that could not happen? Grim, cynical satire from me today. Tomorrow?
I saw an analysis here that the rats need about +330K to end up winning, so this is a good trend. Obviously if you live in an underperforming area, go get you family and friends to vote
We’ve been saying....we would go to a polling place and not use a mail in ballot.
Why is LS tweeting how well the Rs are doing in Miami-Dade, in contrast to your commentary?
Sorry. I misread your post.
I just don’t see how anything can be deduced this year based on past early voting models. People who may have voted in person in previous years may be voting by mail this year, and vice versa, due to the pandemic and concern over mail voting fraud.
They(Republicans) are waaaaaay overperforming in Miami-Dade County
Lot’s of Republicans/Indies will vote on election day including myself.
—
Yup. I don’t want my ballot wandering around the streets on its own, subject to the whim of strangers. I fill it out. I feed it into the voting machine.
If you go to the tabs in the map I posted on the link, click on where it says “advantage map.” The blue areas are where Biden is significantly over performing thanks to massive Democrat mail-in ballots.
Jacksonville Metro Area - Duval, St. JOhns Biden is overperforming 2016 by over 10%.
Orlando and its suburbs - Orange, Seminole. Biden is also overperforming by 10%.
Southwest Florida is also weaker than I would like to see.
Sarasota is the biggest problem at 12% Biden overperformance.
Lee, Collier is 6-8% Biden overperformance.
If you live in any of these areas, go to the early voting polls and VOTE!
Trump is gonna win Florida EASILY..Republicans usually vote on election day this is only the early voting
Maybe he’s including VBMs? I don’t know.
It’s right here in the data.
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
As of right now, Rs have an In Person Early Voting 1,100 lead in Miami Dade. And they are only down 1,400 in Palm Beach.
Look at byecomey’s updated site. There is added a “supervoter” estimate based on TargetSmart showing Rs have 300,000+ supervoters left and Ds are in the hole :)
So are Is.
We live in a democratic hell hole of Broward County, Florida...I am getting all my nieces, nephews, workers, etc...voting early. to make sure they get locked in and not have to chase them on election day However, my wife, parents, and Super Voter family Members vote on election day here
Thanks. Trump told the press today that a Red Wave is rising.
President Trump Knocks Obama’s “Crowds” and Warns Media “Red Wave Is Rising!”
The calculations are straightforward. Here’s where they are being done. No secret sauce. Just algebra with the TargetSmart numbers linked.
https://github.com/joeisdone/joeisdone.github.io/commit/69aecf061548fc5eef6253a22d0e1a32492ae3d1
The proposed number for rats to won is double that number.
I would try and get any Trump supporter you know to the polls early. I have a feeling the media is holding some negative stories about Trump to release as “major bombshells” the 72 hours before Election Day to try and demotivate and demoralize. It’s not worth risking any votes or any second thoughts.
This is a fundamental advantage the Democrats have with their aggressive early voting. They have banked in so many early votes that no matter what negative information comes out about Biden, it doesn’t matter.
If we have 300000 supervoters left, and they are 300K plus up, isn’t that not a good thing?
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