Posted on 10/22/2020 6:25:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 553,687
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 90,913
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 462,774
Election Eve 2016: Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 96,450
Day by Day numbers here, 2016/2020: http://www.electionczar.com/floridaearlyvote.html
“Keep in mind over 3.8 million voted early in 2016 “
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If my math is right that’s’s about 3.4 Million early votes so far...
There were 9.4 Million votes TOTAL in Florida in 2016...so we’re at ~36%...
Still 12 days to go...
We might be seeing an avalanche, or the lines will be shorter on November 3rd...?
Very nice. Our totals match up closely. It’s good to get confirmation.
Miami-Dade and Sarasota did not hurt the ratio like I feared yesterday. Pleasant surprise.
I thought Florida had something like 6 million early voters in 2016?
https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf
I should have clarified...
3.8 million voted early IN PERSON in ‘16.
VBM totally separate figure.
Makes sense! Trend is our friend!
In some states you request a ballot and your registration is on it. In other states-—TX, GA, VA, WI, MI, MN-—there is no registration on a ballot.
I doubt it is possible to predict how voting patterns will pan out this time. If Republicans are a no show during early voting, that would be very bad. But I don’t think any of us can predict PATTERNS for this year based on patterns that were valid over the last few elections.
Perhaps the best indicators will be relative enthusiasm Dem vs Rep in individual counties, but even that is tough. There are GOP supporters who will vote against Trump over COVID, and minorities who will vote FOR Trump - as registered democrats - because he’s genuinely dealing with issues that matter to them.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m watching your threads closely. But in truth I can read either outcome into the numbers. I’m as worthless as a poll. My assumptions can change my predicted outcome!
No...in the state of Florida, Republicans, Democrats, Others & Unaffiliated voters can vote for any candidate listed as running, as they choose!!! Just listing Republicans and Democrat vote counts does nothing at all to predict which way Florida voters will vote for the candidates. You must actively include the “Other & Unaffiliated” votes cast to come to any meaningful vote predictions.
IMHO....I predict POTUS, Donald J. Trump will be the victor of the POTUS race in Florida as many Hispanics, Latinos, African-Americans and, Law Enforcement Officers & their families who are listed and registered as Democrats, will be casting tens of thousands of votes for Donald J. Trump!!!
“ Also some of the D’s will be voting for Trump.”
It’s easy to change party affiliation in FL. Some Rs became D in the spring in order to help the D party nominate Comrade Bernie.
They will be counted as D voters in EV. They will actually vote for PDJT.
Both are cannibalizing their vote.
Rs did gain in voter registration in key states, FL, NC, PA, AZ. Those are mostly new votes.
We’re in Florida and have gotten at least 4 mailers from the Trump campaign encouraging us to early vote. Interestingly, we’ve got nothing from Democrats yet. Four years ago we got a lot of anti-Trump mail.
“Don’t get me wrong. I’m watching your threads closely. But in truth I can read either outcome into the numbers. I’m as worthless as a poll. My assumptions can change my predicted outcome!”
Yep. I hear you.
I do think the Dem VBM return rate is a key number. With 50% of Ds voting by mail, the VBM return rate will be in the ball park of their overall turnout.
Reminder, 74% of Ds voted in 2016. 81% of Rs.
And....folks, no matter what the Fake News Media says....Political rally attendees count because they harden the base voters. Biden has no Rally attendees, Trump has hundreds of thousands across the nation.
As far as Florida is concerned, the two (2) Trump Political rallies this Friday 10/23/2020 in “The Villages and Pensacola” will once again reveal that massive pulling power that Donald J. Trump has with his base supporters. Biden/Harris have no pulling power with their base voters at all!!! And that is also a strong ditto for the Ex-POTUS, Barack “ZERO” Hussein Obama, as his yesterday massive campaign failure for Joe Biden unfolded without any fanfare or success at all in Philadelphia, PA!!!
“I predict POTUS, Donald J. Trump will be the victor of the POTUS race in Florida”
And you will be right.
So what I am reading is that this is first day in awhile where the D lead has been cut?
there is no registration on a ballot.
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In Texas you choose which party’s ballot you want to vote
during the primary. You are committed to that party for any
run offs. The cycle starts anew in two years.
“So what I am reading is that this is first day in awhile where the D lead has been cut?”
Hey, like first day since 2018 election. Haha.
IPEV just borke +100000 R!
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