I doubt it is possible to predict how voting patterns will pan out this time. If Republicans are a no show during early voting, that would be very bad. But I don’t think any of us can predict PATTERNS for this year based on patterns that were valid over the last few elections.
Perhaps the best indicators will be relative enthusiasm Dem vs Rep in individual counties, but even that is tough. There are GOP supporters who will vote against Trump over COVID, and minorities who will vote FOR Trump - as registered democrats - because he’s genuinely dealing with issues that matter to them.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m watching your threads closely. But in truth I can read either outcome into the numbers. I’m as worthless as a poll. My assumptions can change my predicted outcome!
“Don’t get me wrong. I’m watching your threads closely. But in truth I can read either outcome into the numbers. I’m as worthless as a poll. My assumptions can change my predicted outcome!”
Yep. I hear you.
I do think the Dem VBM return rate is a key number. With 50% of Ds voting by mail, the VBM return rate will be in the ball park of their overall turnout.
Reminder, 74% of Ds voted in 2016. 81% of Rs.