Posted on 10/19/2020 12:05:33 PM PDT by John W
By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.
Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.
Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But it’s unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Nov. 3.
There is uncertainty about the accuracy of polling in certain swing states, the efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts and even the number of mail-in ballots that for one reason or another will be disqualified.
“There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. “The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.”
(Excerpt) Read more at currently.att.yahoo.com ...
Hahaha... they didn’t factor in that their voters can’t follow simple directions, thus hundreds of thousands of mailed in votes have been disqualified.
That prompted me to contact my Town Hall to check if Honey’s and mine had passed muster. Indeed they did!
Who could have ever imagined that our failed public education system might one day save the Republic?
Poifect!
“huff/wa post/cnn/msnbc/ny times/vice/buzzfeed/la times/chic trubune/mother jones :)”
Slate is as bad as CNN but CNN is on TV.
It almost sounds like they’re giving excuses why their polling was so wrong.
FWIW - I voted today in person (early voting started today). I live in a fairly rural part of my county which is mostly rural w/ some suburban areas...very red county with a couple of purple pockets due to demographics. One of the poll workers said last election they got 40 people a day max, during early voting. At my polling station my wife and I were the 200th and 201st person to vote @ 11:00 a.m.
I forgot Slate!!
I get confused between Slate and The Beast.
Thought the Beast was moderate.
I looked them up just now.
They are monsters.
Voting early allows a certain flexibility over the days leading up to Election Day.
One could vacation in a same day registration state.
Or go for a bus tour of voting sites with a few friends.
Surprise win?
It will be a surprise if Trump loses.
There are already reports that while democrat voting is high, Republican early voting is also very high and much higher than many thought.
The Democrats had planned to mobilize their base to show up and vote very early—their goal was to exceed their early voting numbers from 2016.
That plan has failed miserably by any metric. This video walks you through the details:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
Covid has _really_ hurt the Democratic mobilizing efforts imho.
Examples:
—Nevada—most casino workers aren’t at work where they can be mobilized
—New Hampshire—many college students are not at college so they will not be mobilized to vote in the state
and I am sure there are many other examples.
Covid will further depress in person voting by Democrats (since polling clearly indicates Democrats are more afraid of getting the virus than Republicans).
As the video shows, the Republicans have had very strong early voting turnout in key states (apples to apples, compared to 2016) even though most Republicans say they want to vote in person.
Bottom line—big Republican advantage over 2016—I am thinking three to four percentage votes in the popular vote over 2016, which means every swing state goes to our side.
GW Bush won in 2004 with the same sort of job approval numbers. The job approval ratings are crucial for an incumbent. Trump is hanging in there.
The actual truthful polls?
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