Posted on 10/18/2020 1:18:46 PM PDT by Coop
For those who may be interested in two previous, related posts:
State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections
There are 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, two per state. Washington D.C. has no senators, nor do the U.S. territories. As of today the U.S. Senate is comprised of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of VT, Angus King of ME) that caucus with the Dems. So numerically it’s a 53-47 GOP advantage, while recognizing that certain unnamed Republicans are reliably problematic when push comes to shove. So the GOP majority is functionally a bit tenuous. Primary elections can take care of those problem children another time. Right now we need to focus on confirming conservative judges and avoiding another Dem House impeachment farce.
The Vice President serves as the President of the Senate. S/he only gets to vote if there’s a tie. Should the hair-sniffing, child-groping nepotist win next month, the Democrats would need to win only three Senate seats to reclaim the majority (meaning they chair the committees, and Chuckie Schumer would set the agenda). Senators serve six-year terms. Elections are staggered, so generally only a third of the seats are up during every even-year election. And normally both senators from one state would not be up for election during the same cycle. Special elections, such as those in AZ and GA this year, can throw off this model. That’s why in 2020 there are 35 seats up for grabs, four of which are open seats (no incumbent – three R [KS, TN, WY], one D [NM]). As with the House and essentially all elections, the power of incumbency is real. Many of these Senatorial elections will not be particularly competitive. But a portion will be.
I respectfully request that readers of this thread chime in with information on events related to Senate races in their areas, info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, and… [it pains me to say this] polls.
I do not anticipate significant ticket splitting in this election. If Trump does well, he could pull some races not generally viewed as competitive (NM, VA, NH) into contention. Of the Senate races on the ballot this November, 23 are Republican and 12 are Democrat. Advantage: Dems. However, 23 races are in states Trump won; of the remaining 12 states Trump lost, five were by <5 points (see emboldened state names). Advantage: GOP. As always, the Democrats will be very well funded. GOP candidates running in swing states (MI, NC, MN) will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like LA or IL will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRSC funding.
2016 Trump margins can be found here. The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a state leans, right or left, based on previous elections. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are currently rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning they are as “down the middle” politically as states can get. R+3 means a state is about three points more Republican than NH, and D+8 means a state is about 8 points more Democratic than WI. According to Cook the most Republican state is Wyoming (R+25), and the most Democratic state is Idaho. Just kidding! It’s Hawaii at D+18.
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| State | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| Alabama | 28.3 pts | R+14 | Coach Tommy Tuberville | |
| Alaska | 15.2 pts | R+9 | Sen. Dan Sullivan* | |
| Arizona | 4.1 pts | R+5 | Sen. Martha McSally* | |
| Arkansas | 26.6 pts | R+15 | Sen. Tom Cotton* | |
| Colorado | -2.8 pts | D+1 | Sen. Cory Gardner | |
| Delaware | -11.5 pts | D+6 | Lauren Witzke | |
| Georgia | 5.7 pts | R+5 | Sen. David Perdue | |
| Georgia | 5.7 pts | R+5 | Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins* | |
| Idaho | 31.6 pts | R+19 | Sen. James Risch | |
| Illinois | -15 pts | D+7 | Mark Curran | |
| Iowa | 9.6 pts | R+3 | Sen. Joni Ernst* | |
| Kansas (open) | 21 pts | R+13 | Dr. Roger Marshall | |
| Kentucky | 29.8 pts | R+15 | Sen. Maj Leader Mitch McConnell | |
| Louisiana | 29.7 pts | R+11 | Dr. and Sen. Bill Cassidy | |
| Maine | -2.7 pts | D+3 | Sen. Susan Collins | |
| Massachusetts | -27.3 pts | D+12 | Kevin O’Connor | |
| Michigan | 0.3 pts | D+1 | John James* | |
| Minnesota | -1.5 pts | D+1 | Jason Lewis | |
| Mississippi | 18.6 pts | R+9 | Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith | |
| Montana | 20.5 pts | R+11 | Sen. Steve Daines | |
| Nebraska | 26.3 pts | R+14 | Sen. Ben Sasse | |
| New Hampshire | -1.4 pts | Even | Corky Messner* | |
| New Jersey | -13.2 pts | D+7 | Rik Mehta | |
| New Mexico (open) | -8.3 pts | D+3 | Mark Ronchetti | |
| North Carolina | 3.8 pts | R+3 | Sen. Thom Tillis | |
| Oklahoma | 36.4 pts | R+20 | Sen. James Inhofe* | |
| Oregon | -10.6 pts | D+5 | Jo Rae Perkins | |
| Rhode Island | -15.6 pts | D+10 | Allen Waters | |
| South Carolina | 14.1 pts | R+8 | Sen. Lindsey Graham* | |
| South Dakota | 29.8 pts | R+14 | Sen. Mike Rounds | |
| Tennessee (open) | 26.2 pts | R+14 | Bill Haggerty | |
| Texas | 9.2 pts | R+8 | Sen. John Cornyn | |
| Virginia | -4.9 pts | D+1 | LTC Daniel Gade* | |
| West Virginia | 32.2 pts | R+19 | Sen. Shelley Moore-Capito | |
| Wyoming (open) | 47.6 pts | R+25 | Sec. Cynthia Lummis | |
You might be wondering why there are two Republicans running in a second GA race (both candidate websites are linked). Last December, due to health concerns, Sen. Johnny Isakson announced his retirement prior to finishing his term, which would have expired in Jan 2023. Gov. Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler in January, to serve as senator until next month’s special election. There was no primary for this special race. All candidates (21 of them!) are on one ballot. The three biggest names are Sen. Loeffler, Rep. Collins, and a Dem preacher named Raphael Warnock. If no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote, a run-off takes place between the top two vote earners the following month. My gut says Warnock will face Collins in Dec. Regardless of who wins this special election, an election for a full six-year term will take place in Nov 2022.
If you believe that Joe Biden really is comfortably leading in the national polls, then 11/3 will be a bad night for the GOP Senate. Republicans will likely flip AL, hold the 3 open GOP seats and SC, but lose the CO, ME, MI, AZ, NH, MN, VA, NM (open), NC, and IA races, plus one or both GA elections. John Cornyn in TX could even have a late, worrisome night. That scenario would give Dems control with 52 or 53 seats. However, before you go climbing onto the ledge, I think such polls are garbage (see “State of the 2020 election” above for more details).
In a close (2016-ish) race I expect Republicans to hold the Senate as they hold the 3 open seats, flip AL & MI and keep the SC, AZ, IA and NC seats, plus Perdue’s GA seat. The other GA seat (Loeffler/Collins) will likely go to a Dec run-off. Susan Collins may have cost herself reelection with her recent Judge Barrett stunt, and Gardner in CO is still quite vulnerable. If Repubs lose ME and CO it basically would be a wash, with little change.
If Trump outperforms his 2016 victory, as I fully expect, then the Pubbies could gain Senate seats. A huge night could result in flipping AL, MI, MN, NM, NH and even VA without losing any current GOP seats, but one GA seat still going to run-off. Before the run-off that would be a total of 59 GOP seats. I don’t expect all those races to fall our way, but you never know. The Dems drew to an inside straight in the 2000 Senate election cycle, winning all the close races they needed, and then taking control when turncoat Jim Jeffords switched parties. After next month plays out, I do expect that starting in Jan 2021 the GOP Senate will have more of a cushion to protect against back-stabber Mitt Romney and one or two others. But before this turns into a Romney-bashing thread, remember who fully endorsed his Senate run? Pres. Trump. Not one of his finer decisions.
That “Sec.” is not a typo above in the WY line. Cynthia Lummis is not yet a senator, but she served as Secretary of the Interior from 2017 to 2019. She’s also a cattle rancher.
Trivia question: Which GOP senatorial candidate listed above was a Supreme Court justice?
Coop’s favorite GOP underdog: Jayson Lewis, MN (see below for details).
Cutest Senate candidate? This hetero male votes for Lauren Witzke of DE.
Who was the first member of Congress to ever fly a plane around the world? Jim Inhofe of OK. He’s also been married to his wife, Kay, for 60 years!
Dark horse candidate? Mark Ronchetti of NM. He’s a well-known TV meteorologist. Trump lost the Land of Enchantment by 8.3 points, but former NM GOP governor Gary Johnson took 9.3% of the vote. GOPer Evan McMullin took another 0.7%, while Greenie Jill Stein only took 1.2%. If Trump does improve his performance among Hispanics, and Biden’s position on fracking hits him hard in NM, this open seat could swing GOP. For that to happen Trump would almost certainly need to carry NM. Should we see a Trump rally scheduled in NM, look out!
Why didn’t I list Sen. Joni Ernst as one of my two most vulnerable? Back in March of this year Joni’s approval rating had slipped significantly, and she was considered one of the more vulnerable senators around. Her seat is listed by most as a Toss-up. Such a rating frankly makes me want to toss up my lunch. Trump won IA by 8.6 points, with Gary Johnson taking another 3.2 points. Trump pulled his advertising dollars from Iowa, and it ain’t because he’s given up. Joni would have to significantly underperform Trump to lose her seat. We shall see.
I find it hard to believe the IA race is a toss-up, while due north Dem Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in MN is rated as Solid D. Seriously? Trump lost MN by 1.5 points, and his campaign is making a full-fledged assault to capture MN’s 10 electoral votes. Two MN House seats (see House link up top for details) are also prime for flipping R. MN Republicans are fired up to vote this election. Senate candidate and former Rep. Jason Lewis has deep roots in MN and plenty of name recognition from his time in Congress (MN-02), his radio show in the Twin Cities area, numerous TV programs, and his work as a contributing columnist at the Star Tribune. Why does everyone think unproven John James in D+1 Michigan is primed to knock off an incumbent, while high profile, former Rep. Jason Lewis in D+1 Minnesota supposedly doesn’t have a chance? Makes no sense to this fella, even recognizing Sen. Smith is considered stronger than Sen. Peters.
Did you know that besides John James in MI there is another black GOP candidate for Senate? No? Me neither. Apparently, the RI GOP decided to pull its endorsement of Allen Waters due to an alleged domestic dispute in 2019 (the case was dismissed). Allen is still in the race.
As a Catholic I have been surprised at how many Catholic GOP candidates there are serving in/running for the Senate and House. Catholic Mike Rounds of SD is the eldest of 11 siblings!
The next time someone talks about the GOP being a party of old white men, not only can you call out SC’s excellent senator Tim Scott (not up for reelection this year), but point to the seven current Republican women senators. Not listed with the five above are Sen. Deb Fischer of NE and Sen. Marsha Blackburn of TN (neither up for reelection this year). Cynthia Lummis is in prime position to join that group of ladies.
What can you do to help the GOP hold the Senate and keep confirming conservative judges nominated by President Trump? There really is still time to make a difference.
If you notice any errors on this thread, please point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
Trivia answer: Sen. John Cornyn of TX served on the Texas Supreme Court from Jan 1991 to Oct 1997.
I really hope and pray all of the money these goons have spent is wasted money and their candidates lose.
John Gizzi believes the MSM polls. He is supposed to be a polling expert but fails to do any deep dive on any of them. Anyone with a shred of common sense can look at internals to see data that is counter intuitive at best. A couple weeks ago he posted a poll where Biden was supposedly leading but when I reviewed the internals, it showed that the Hispanic vote would drop even though their participation has grown in every election. The one red flag that convinced me the poll was bogus? Biden was leading amongst Protestants and Catholics. Gizzi has no clue.
Guy Benson is a never Trumper disguised as a conservative. He wanted Arizona Governor Doug Ducey to pick Meghan McCain for the Senate Seat. That speaks volumes to me.
I should clarify, if you haven't already seen it in other posts of mine.
The model is probabilistic. It uses the margin of error to convert the polls into probabilities of the leader actually winning. The probabilities then go into a Monte Carlo simulation to produce the final results.
A few weeks ago, I did a sensitivity test on bias in the polls by running it through Solver to find the give/take that makes the election a tie in the model. Actually, you saw this already in this post from October 6. At the time, a 2.1% swing from Biden to Trump tied the election. A 3.6% swing reproduced 2016 results.
I should rerun this analysis with today's polls, but the point is still this: if you believe the polls are off by more than 3%, then Trump is winning.
-PJ
Ah yes, I do recall that post now, thank you. I am obviously not using models, polls (for the most part) and statistics. But based on the factors I identified earlier I expect Trump to exceed his 2016 performance.
Good info, thanks
Maine splits it’s four electoral votes.
In 2016, Trump won CD 2....80% of the state...by 10 points, and received one electoral vote. A repeat is quite possible. Hilarity won CD 1....close to Boston and more liberal than CD 2. One electoral vote for Satan’s daughter. Statewide, the Hildebeast won by 2.9%, giving her two more electoral votes.
I would be stunned if Collins loses. She’s good on local issues, and won 67% of the vote in 2014.
The one faint hope that Gade is getting some traction here is the almost weekly mail flyers from the VA dems claiming the standard DNC crap that Gade, a wounded vet, wants to scrap medical coverage for existing conditions. Something may be afoot in internal polling somewhere.
That is what I’m worried about. If we win Pres. but lose Senate and don’t take the House, he will be impeached.
On youtube I keep seeing GOP senators begging for money to save Daines in MT but the OP shows Daines winning by a lot.
See #50
Trump has already been impeached. If the Dems keep the House he'll probably be impeached again because they won't have been punished for their treacherous behavior. But even if the Ds win the Senate, they won't have 67 votes to remove Trump from office. POTUS would just laugh at them.
I don’t know what an OP is. Trump carried MT by 19.5 points four years ago, and I expect he’ll meet or beat that margin this time around. Even with the current MT governor running against him, I can’t see Daines underperforming the POTUS by 20 points and losing. However, why not tap into the worries? Lindsey Graham was hitting me up repeatedly for money, playing off the fears he was losing. I’ll be stunned if Sen. Graham doesn’t win comfortably.
Excellent as always.
Thank you, but it appears not too many agree with your kind assessment. If I listen closely enough I can actually hear echoes as I type on this thread.
Maybe as you say, crazed GOP fundraiser convinced Daines he is about to lose the election. Or maybe that race really is close. I was actually thinking about contributing to Daines. I definitely wasn't going to click on a link and put my name on a list forever. I got a phone number to send a contribution from one of Daines's offices. I left a message and they never called me back.
Thanks for your hard work on this and your previous posts. I appreciate that you gave a range of possible outcomes based on different assumptions.
Okay, original poster. Got it. To be clear, my chart is not showing a prediction of how GOP senators will fare in 2020. It shows the state, candidate Trump's margin of victory/loss in 2016, the state's Cook PVI rating, and websites of GOP candidates. Basically the first three rows are to show how Republican a state is and how well Trump did, and then assess that against all the posts around here saying "Trump can't win Nevada." Or "Virginia is deep blue." With the data laid out, it shows the Senate map isn't overwhelming like some claim it is.
I appreciate your kind words. Let’s hope some lurkers are actually visiting the websites and learning about Repub candidates.
Any one : which candidates need money the most ( to make a difference for all of us?) I fear it’s Linda and I will have to hold my nose and write a check
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