Charlie Cook is one dumb sack of human garbage. Oh look, here is his Senate prediction 4 years ago:
Here's Cook's summary of Trump's chances then, look familiar:
Posted on 10/18/2020 1:18:46 PM PDT by Coop
For those who may be interested in two previous, related posts:
State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections
There are 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, two per state. Washington D.C. has no senators, nor do the U.S. territories. As of today the U.S. Senate is comprised of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of VT, Angus King of ME) that caucus with the Dems. So numerically it’s a 53-47 GOP advantage, while recognizing that certain unnamed Republicans are reliably problematic when push comes to shove. So the GOP majority is functionally a bit tenuous. Primary elections can take care of those problem children another time. Right now we need to focus on confirming conservative judges and avoiding another Dem House impeachment farce.
The Vice President serves as the President of the Senate. S/he only gets to vote if there’s a tie. Should the hair-sniffing, child-groping nepotist win next month, the Democrats would need to win only three Senate seats to reclaim the majority (meaning they chair the committees, and Chuckie Schumer would set the agenda). Senators serve six-year terms. Elections are staggered, so generally only a third of the seats are up during every even-year election. And normally both senators from one state would not be up for election during the same cycle. Special elections, such as those in AZ and GA this year, can throw off this model. That’s why in 2020 there are 35 seats up for grabs, four of which are open seats (no incumbent – three R [KS, TN, WY], one D [NM]). As with the House and essentially all elections, the power of incumbency is real. Many of these Senatorial elections will not be particularly competitive. But a portion will be.
I respectfully request that readers of this thread chime in with information on events related to Senate races in their areas, info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, and… [it pains me to say this] polls.
I do not anticipate significant ticket splitting in this election. If Trump does well, he could pull some races not generally viewed as competitive (NM, VA, NH) into contention. Of the Senate races on the ballot this November, 23 are Republican and 12 are Democrat. Advantage: Dems. However, 23 races are in states Trump won; of the remaining 12 states Trump lost, five were by <5 points (see emboldened state names). Advantage: GOP. As always, the Democrats will be very well funded. GOP candidates running in swing states (MI, NC, MN) will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like LA or IL will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRSC funding.
2016 Trump margins can be found here. The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a state leans, right or left, based on previous elections. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are currently rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning they are as “down the middle” politically as states can get. R+3 means a state is about three points more Republican than NH, and D+8 means a state is about 8 points more Democratic than WI. According to Cook the most Republican state is Wyoming (R+25), and the most Democratic state is Idaho. Just kidding! It’s Hawaii at D+18.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| Alabama | 28.3 pts | R+14 | Coach Tommy Tuberville | |
| Alaska | 15.2 pts | R+9 | Sen. Dan Sullivan* | |
| Arizona | 4.1 pts | R+5 | Sen. Martha McSally* | |
| Arkansas | 26.6 pts | R+15 | Sen. Tom Cotton* | |
| Colorado | -2.8 pts | D+1 | Sen. Cory Gardner | |
| Delaware | -11.5 pts | D+6 | Lauren Witzke | |
| Georgia | 5.7 pts | R+5 | Sen. David Perdue | |
| Georgia | 5.7 pts | R+5 | Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins* | |
| Idaho | 31.6 pts | R+19 | Sen. James Risch | |
| Illinois | -15 pts | D+7 | Mark Curran | |
| Iowa | 9.6 pts | R+3 | Sen. Joni Ernst* | |
| Kansas (open) | 21 pts | R+13 | Dr. Roger Marshall | |
| Kentucky | 29.8 pts | R+15 | Sen. Maj Leader Mitch McConnell | |
| Louisiana | 29.7 pts | R+11 | Dr. and Sen. Bill Cassidy | |
| Maine | -2.7 pts | D+3 | Sen. Susan Collins | |
| Massachusetts | -27.3 pts | D+12 | Kevin O’Connor | |
| Michigan | 0.3 pts | D+1 | John James* | |
| Minnesota | -1.5 pts | D+1 | Jason Lewis | |
| Mississippi | 18.6 pts | R+9 | Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith | |
| Montana | 20.5 pts | R+11 | Sen. Steve Daines | |
| Nebraska | 26.3 pts | R+14 | Sen. Ben Sasse | |
| New Hampshire | -1.4 pts | Even | Corky Messner* | |
| New Jersey | -13.2 pts | D+7 | Rik Mehta | |
| New Mexico (open) | -8.3 pts | D+3 | Mark Ronchetti | |
| North Carolina | 3.8 pts | R+3 | Sen. Thom Tillis | |
| Oklahoma | 36.4 pts | R+20 | Sen. James Inhofe* | |
| Oregon | -10.6 pts | D+5 | Jo Rae Perkins | |
| Rhode Island | -15.6 pts | D+10 | Allen Waters | |
| South Carolina | 14.1 pts | R+8 | Sen. Lindsey Graham* | |
| South Dakota | 29.8 pts | R+14 | Sen. Mike Rounds | |
| Tennessee (open) | 26.2 pts | R+14 | Bill Haggerty | |
| Texas | 9.2 pts | R+8 | Sen. John Cornyn | |
| Virginia | -4.9 pts | D+1 | LTC Daniel Gade* | |
| West Virginia | 32.2 pts | R+19 | Sen. Shelley Moore-Capito | |
| Wyoming (open) | 47.6 pts | R+25 | Sec. Cynthia Lummis | |
You might be wondering why there are two Republicans running in a second GA race (both candidate websites are linked). Last December, due to health concerns, Sen. Johnny Isakson announced his retirement prior to finishing his term, which would have expired in Jan 2023. Gov. Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler in January, to serve as senator until next month’s special election. There was no primary for this special race. All candidates (21 of them!) are on one ballot. The three biggest names are Sen. Loeffler, Rep. Collins, and a Dem preacher named Raphael Warnock. If no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote, a run-off takes place between the top two vote earners the following month. My gut says Warnock will face Collins in Dec. Regardless of who wins this special election, an election for a full six-year term will take place in Nov 2022.
If you believe that Joe Biden really is comfortably leading in the national polls, then 11/3 will be a bad night for the GOP Senate. Republicans will likely flip AL, hold the 3 open GOP seats and SC, but lose the CO, ME, MI, AZ, NH, MN, VA, NM (open), NC, and IA races, plus one or both GA elections. John Cornyn in TX could even have a late, worrisome night. That scenario would give Dems control with 52 or 53 seats. However, before you go climbing onto the ledge, I think such polls are garbage (see “State of the 2020 election” above for more details).
In a close (2016-ish) race I expect Republicans to hold the Senate as they hold the 3 open seats, flip AL & MI and keep the SC, AZ, IA and NC seats, plus Perdue’s GA seat. The other GA seat (Loeffler/Collins) will likely go to a Dec run-off. Susan Collins may have cost herself reelection with her recent Judge Barrett stunt, and Gardner in CO is still quite vulnerable. If Repubs lose ME and CO it basically would be a wash, with little change.
If Trump outperforms his 2016 victory, as I fully expect, then the Pubbies could gain Senate seats. A huge night could result in flipping AL, MI, MN, NM, NH and even VA without losing any current GOP seats, but one GA seat still going to run-off. Before the run-off that would be a total of 59 GOP seats. I don’t expect all those races to fall our way, but you never know. The Dems drew to an inside straight in the 2000 Senate election cycle, winning all the close races they needed, and then taking control when turncoat Jim Jeffords switched parties. After next month plays out, I do expect that starting in Jan 2021 the GOP Senate will have more of a cushion to protect against back-stabber Mitt Romney and one or two others. But before this turns into a Romney-bashing thread, remember who fully endorsed his Senate run? Pres. Trump. Not one of his finer decisions.
That “Sec.” is not a typo above in the WY line. Cynthia Lummis is not yet a senator, but she served as Secretary of the Interior from 2017 to 2019. She’s also a cattle rancher.
Trivia question: Which GOP senatorial candidate listed above was a Supreme Court justice?
Coop’s favorite GOP underdog: Jayson Lewis, MN (see below for details).
Cutest Senate candidate? This hetero male votes for Lauren Witzke of DE.
Who was the first member of Congress to ever fly a plane around the world? Jim Inhofe of OK. He’s also been married to his wife, Kay, for 60 years!
Dark horse candidate? Mark Ronchetti of NM. He’s a well-known TV meteorologist. Trump lost the Land of Enchantment by 8.3 points, but former NM GOP governor Gary Johnson took 9.3% of the vote. GOPer Evan McMullin took another 0.7%, while Greenie Jill Stein only took 1.2%. If Trump does improve his performance among Hispanics, and Biden’s position on fracking hits him hard in NM, this open seat could swing GOP. For that to happen Trump would almost certainly need to carry NM. Should we see a Trump rally scheduled in NM, look out!
Why didn’t I list Sen. Joni Ernst as one of my two most vulnerable? Back in March of this year Joni’s approval rating had slipped significantly, and she was considered one of the more vulnerable senators around. Her seat is listed by most as a Toss-up. Such a rating frankly makes me want to toss up my lunch. Trump won IA by 8.6 points, with Gary Johnson taking another 3.2 points. Trump pulled his advertising dollars from Iowa, and it ain’t because he’s given up. Joni would have to significantly underperform Trump to lose her seat. We shall see.
I find it hard to believe the IA race is a toss-up, while due north Dem Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in MN is rated as Solid D. Seriously? Trump lost MN by 1.5 points, and his campaign is making a full-fledged assault to capture MN’s 10 electoral votes. Two MN House seats (see House link up top for details) are also prime for flipping R. MN Republicans are fired up to vote this election. Senate candidate and former Rep. Jason Lewis has deep roots in MN and plenty of name recognition from his time in Congress (MN-02), his radio show in the Twin Cities area, numerous TV programs, and his work as a contributing columnist at the Star Tribune. Why does everyone think unproven John James in D+1 Michigan is primed to knock off an incumbent, while high profile, former Rep. Jason Lewis in D+1 Minnesota supposedly doesn’t have a chance? Makes no sense to this fella, even recognizing Sen. Smith is considered stronger than Sen. Peters.
Did you know that besides John James in MI there is another black GOP candidate for Senate? No? Me neither. Apparently, the RI GOP decided to pull its endorsement of Allen Waters due to an alleged domestic dispute in 2019 (the case was dismissed). Allen is still in the race.
As a Catholic I have been surprised at how many Catholic GOP candidates there are serving in/running for the Senate and House. Catholic Mike Rounds of SD is the eldest of 11 siblings!
The next time someone talks about the GOP being a party of old white men, not only can you call out SC’s excellent senator Tim Scott (not up for reelection this year), but point to the seven current Republican women senators. Not listed with the five above are Sen. Deb Fischer of NE and Sen. Marsha Blackburn of TN (neither up for reelection this year). Cynthia Lummis is in prime position to join that group of ladies.
What can you do to help the GOP hold the Senate and keep confirming conservative judges nominated by President Trump? There really is still time to make a difference.
If you notice any errors on this thread, please point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
Trivia answer: Sen. John Cornyn of TX served on the Texas Supreme Court from Jan 1991 to Oct 1997.
“My feet are sore from hitting the pavement yesterday and today delivering campaign literature and signs.”
Thanks for doing that.
Great Post!
The mail in vote will be the biggest monkey wrench, though mostly in the already blue states.
Virginia may flip one or two house seats back to R IMHO if the president’s coattails are good. (VA 2 & 7) so maybe the senate too. I’ve already voted. I don’t see the youth vote being enthused by Biden.
My President and Senate models are a combination of the state polls and adjusted polls by statespoll.com, where available.
Because of the polling bias, it is hard to get a read on the national situation. Based on the published Presidential polls, Trump is running somewhere between 228 and 250 Electoral Votes. This range covers 30 days of polls, the lower end includes statespoll.com corrections and the higher range is ONLY statespoll.com corrections. I know these polls don't track with observed enthusiasm, so I will be watching for movement in the next two weeks.
On the Senate side, it's a different picture. I think those races come down to individual personalities.
-PJ
lotta good work there, coop.
Charlie Cook is one dumb sack of human garbage. Oh look, here is his Senate prediction 4 years ago:
Here's Cook's summary of Trump's chances then, look familiar:
Thank you for this chart...
It would be nice to see Trump campaign in the state of New Mexico, Delaware, and New Jersey..., And help those candidates running for the Senate and the house and at the same time maybe flip a couple of blue states.
Is there a similar chart for house seats ?
Thank you for this chart...
It would be nice to see Trump campaign in the state of New Mexico, Delaware, and New Jersey..., And help those candidates running for the Senate and the house and at the same time maybe flip a couple of blue states.
Is there a similar chart for house seats ?
My eye is on voter fraud in Georgia. That qwould make a difference.
Dem voter fraud in Georgia would cause a lot of problems for the Republicans. I hope the state is on top of a fair election.
Biden can't just flip WI and win without PA. In fact Biden can't win if he flips BOTH WI and PA.
Ay any rate, John James is the surprise Senate winner of Election Night. Tuberville takes AL. We lose Collins. GOP net gain +1.
I am? That's news to me.
Yeah, I don’t gt that either.
Here in AZ, Kelly is running non-stop ads vs very little McSally ads. And Kirsten Synema is in a pro-Kelly ad which I have not seen before today.
McSally needs to put more ads out there.
I hope that was a joke. Far too many around here seem to think VA is "deep blue" or very blue. It's simply not. Even in 2008 Obama's VA margin was only 6.2 points, while his national margin was over 7.2 points.
It is because SOROS money is FLOODING Dem candidates our side has to win on ideas!!!
That's what I figured. And there's nothing wrong with that, if the polls are accurate. I think they're pretty inaccurate, a la 2016. I have ignored Trump xx%, Biden yy% polls almost completely. I have looked at the Ras daily tracking poll, as well as polls measuring enthusiasm (out-of-WH-power Dems historically should be ahead, but they're trailing considerably). I am looking at GOP success in voter registration, as well as fundraising (2020 compared to 2016) and time the GOP has had to put ground games in place in key states. Plus how many unions have switched from Dem to GOP this election? That has to have some effect, but I'm not sure how to measure it. Certain union (mostly police, firefighters) get-out-the-vote operations are at a minimum not helping Democrats, and in some cases will be helping Republicans. Time will tell.
You are WAY off base. Suggest you go back and read the two links I provided up top.
You're welcome. Yes, I provided a link at the beginning of the thread.
A John James victory will surprise hardly anybody, especially on this site.
Soros bought VA in 18. He’s spreading his money elsewhere this cycle.
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