Posted on 09/27/2020 9:09:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Pollster Samples:
MI
31% D, 31% R, 36% Ind
80% white, 12% Black
37% college grads, 30% white college
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WI
31% D, 31% R, 36% Ind
87% white, 4% Black
39% college grads, 35% white college
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Biden leads Trump in both battleground states among likely voters
MI
Biden 52%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 43%)
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WI
Biden 54%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 44%)
======================================
In Michigan's competitive SEN race among likely voters
Peters (D): 49%
James: (R): 44%
So what is Trump's plan for winning Florida, decisively?
Most likely Dems claiming to be “Independents.” In this climate I find it unlikely that one third of those who are randomly called could possibly be “Independent.” Much like those who go onto blogs with the “I have voted Republican all my life but simply cannot do so this time because of Trump.” No one believes it. . . .
The Biden campaign is running a lot of ads thanks to the ocean of money he is pulling in. I don’t live in a state where ads are running, but I understand many of them say Pres. Trump will cut Social Security.
The state of play: PT with solid leads in FL, GA and NC. Slight lead in PA and MI. trailing badly in WI. Slightly ahead in NV. Tied in NH. Close in MN.
That is one valid point I should consider. But I still believe the people have the responsibility to not be lazy. As a fine caller on Rush said this past week, the people like her were raised (as I say by their mommies) to be Dems but she grew out of that and looked into the policies later.
They apparently are too lazy. I still hate them and I still blame them. We should have 70% pro Trump all over the place outside of CA,OR,WA and NY. Only a slight exaggeration.
I want them to see the BLM Inc. burning and looting. Up close and personal. If we have to pay for ads, then let's pay for ads.
, no territory should ever be ceded to an opponent.”
Yes TV Ad Biden is what has become reality. I don’t think the territory was ceded. The rats just own the entire media establishment. It is a fact that it is a near miracle we ever win when we are facing such media dominance. People had a reflective dislike for Hillary. Biden does not have that. we have our little islands rush etc. but MSM still has enormous power. The voters have no clue what is waiting for them in the weeds if Biden wins. Maybe Trump can bring it out in the debate if he does not rely on Joe having a mental collapse.
Trump has to paint Biden as being on board with the radicals, force him to choose.
I still think this election is going to come down to Covid. That is the one issue that has impacted every American nationwide. The question will be do they blame the president for it or not.
That doesn’t show Marist, so not relevant.
They are trolls. I agree don’t fall for their BS. Info warfare.
True, but, as I have posted elsewhere - I am seeing political ads for the first time on the over the air subchannels this election year - like MeTV network. These ads are being run nationally on the network. They are all Biden. No presence of Trump. No competing message. Biden controls it. These networks are viewed mostly by older voters who are the most likely to vote. It just alarms me to see those ads running with no other message to compete with it. Biden is in control without opposition in those environments.
Happened to hear the Glenn Beck Program for about 5 minutes recently. His sidekick said "Can the American people be that stupid? Can they be that stupid?" in a Covid blame on Trump topic. I didn't keep listening but that's the phrase I find myself saying about 500 times a year (after news stories, polls, TV media soundbites....).
They deserve the punishment of a post-freedom America---WE DON'T. Pardon the caps.
Out in West Michigan there are almost no Biden signs. If the election were decided by yatdvsigns Biden would loose to:
Trump
Firewood for sale.
Fresh veggies (this, however might really be a biden sign)
Pumpkins
For sale by owner
It’s the riots that are first and foremost on voters minds. In all my electioneering so far its tops. Law and order is it. COVID-19 is meh.
People need to take the time and read the internals and fine print on how the polling was conducted.
The following is from the Michigan poll.
Trump approval in Michigan is at 41%.
For comparison, Rasmussen has it at 52% (nationally).
The majority of polling was via cell phone interviews, supplemented by landline calls. For ABC, cell/landline breakdown is roughly 75/25. I’m guessing NBC is close to similar.
From the PDF regarding landline interviews:
“A single respondent is selected thru a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally undercovered survey populations.”
When ABC does landline polling, they ask for the YOUNGEST PERSON. I’m not making this up. It says so in their fine print. I’ve read it.
I’m betting NBC does the same when they say “traditionally undercovered survey populations”.
Gee...majority of young people vote which way...?
That is enough to make a poll look very favorable for Biden.
Read the fine print people.
In other words Biden is the Max Headroom of politics
So the poll is telling us that 30% of the voters are college degree holders and all of them will vote for Biden.
Cause a leprechaun riding a unicorn told them so.
...polls will continue to be very unreliable right up to election days. Additionally, polls will not capture voter fraud that is a centralized and systematic scheme this year...
_______________________
While the putative R/D/I looks *fair*, the pollsters screen for women/suburbia/(recent)college degree/age.
There are many ways to orient a survey.
That said, we visited our former home last week and saw 12 BLM signs. One of which was in front of a home of Christians we have known for 40 years and who were always conservative.
I strongly suspect their 30-something children are responsible. Also, they are still working in a service business and that would influence them, as well.
There was a BLM protest there in June, part of a national operation that was counter-protested by one young businessman who was later doxxed and an attempt made on his business. He survived and the business is doing fine.
OTOH, our friends there say the # of BLM signs has decreased.
On the 3rd hand, other friends say they cannot put out a sign because they are *surrounded*.
Town of under 5k, county seat, SW WI, large prog influx over the past 30 years due to a famous, cultish school. As the school members opened trendy businesses, and friends from urban areas saw the *amenities* available, in-migration accelerated over the past 10 years. Progs in control in the town, rural area still conservative.
No way to gauge the election accurately, I agree.
Someone dropped the ball with the sub channels. Ominous and perhaps this is why Biden is doing so well with the Seniors. I have been wondering about that. They have no clue what a nightmare is waiting in the weeds. They just see the solid pleasant old guy like them.
From link:
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in three key battleground states after the conclusion of the political conventions, including in all-important Ohio, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
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