Posted on 09/27/2020 9:09:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Pollster Samples:
MI
31% D, 31% R, 36% Ind
80% white, 12% Black
37% college grads, 30% white college
===============================
WI
31% D, 31% R, 36% Ind
87% white, 4% Black
39% college grads, 35% white college
===============================
Biden leads Trump in both battleground states among likely voters
MI
Biden 52%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 43%)
==========
WI
Biden 54%, Trump 44% (Among RVs, Biden 52%, Trump 44%)
======================================
In Michigan's competitive SEN race among likely voters
Peters (D): 49%
James: (R): 44%
I've been called and after they determine I'm conservative they stop asking questions.
I hate to give FiveThirtyEight hits, but they had Hillary with an 83.5% chance of winning Wisconsin in 2016. I guess the question is ‘What is the goal of pollsters?’.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
I agree. FL will tell us everything. The signs on the ground, and the voter registration stats are all positive; the polls - not so much. If Trump wins FL, we are looking at a good evening.
There haven’t been any debates yet.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Clinton (D)
|
Trump (R)
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 46.5 | 47.2 | Trump +0.7 |
| RCP Average | 10/26 - 11/2 | -- | -- | 46.8 | 40.3 | Clinton +6.5 |
| Remington Research (R)* | 11/1 - 11/2 | 2720 LV | 1.9 | 49 | 41 | Clinton +8 |
| Loras* | 10/31 - 11/1 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 44 | 38 | Clinton +6 |
| Marquette* | 10/26 - 10/31 | 1225 LV | 3.5 | 46 | 40 | Clinton +6 |
| Remington Research (R)* | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1172 LV | 2.9 | 46 | 42 | Clinton +4 |
| Emerson* | 10/26 - 10/27 | 400 LV | 4.9 | 48 | 42 | Clinton +6 |
| Remington Research (R)* | 10/20 - 10/22 | 1795 LV | 2.3 | 46 | 41 | Clinton +5 |
| Monmouth* | 10/15 - 10/18 | 403 LV | 4.9 | 47 | 40 | Clinton +7 |
| WPR/St. Norbert* | 10/13 - 10/16 | 644 LV | 3.8 | 47 | 39 | Clinton +8 |
| Marquette | 10/6 - 10/9 | 878 LV | 3.9 | 46 | 42 | Clinton +4 |
| CBS News/YouGov* | 10/5 - 10/7 | 993 LV | 4.3 | 43 | 39 | Clinton +4 |
| Loras* | 10/4 - 10/5 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 43 | 35 | Clinton +8 |
| Gravis* | 10/4 - 10/4 | 1102 RV | 3.0 | 48 | 40 | Clinton +8 |
| Emerson* | 9/19 - 9/20 | 700 LV | 3.6 | 45 | 38 | Clinton +7 |
They don't mind being called white racists and having to pay reparations money to blacks for the 1800s. Defunding and shutting down police departments and letting prisoners out on the streets is fine.
They think lockdowns are deserved. They blame Trump somehow for the Chinese killer virus the Chinese started in Wuhan.
Most Americans are not impacted whatsoever by the riots. They've never seen riots. They only learn about them on Twitter (as the MSM is doing their best to downplay the damage).
President Trump just paraded a "Platinum Plan" for black America that includes a HALF TRILLION DOLLAR PAYOUT to blacks! If he doesn't think his working class white base is seething about this, he's wrong. They get nothing. Whites have been taking it in the can all summer long, belittled and degraded, suffering from the effects of the lockdowns, and now this. It's a slap in the face to the very people that President Trump desperately needs to get to the polls.
What every American is feeling are the effects of the lockdowns. Unfortunately, many of them are claiming the president for this, and not their democrat governors. Covid was handled horribly at the beginning. Unfortunately, the president was in a no-win scenario. Damned if he did and damned if he didn't. Fortunately, states like Florida are starting to open up and this will lead voters to think that maybe indeed the lockdowns are a state issue. Using Florida as an example, President Trump needs to make his case very clear that it is local governments keeping the shutdowns going on. People are tired of them. Parents want their kids back in school. They want businesses to open back up. We're sick of the damn masks.
Bingo. There is another one that plays the same game, “St. Louis ‘Conservative’”.
They are bought and paid for Soros-sucking trolls.
My guess is Biden is ahead on WI by 2.4 pts. Behind in PA, tied in MI. WI needs work and prayer.
Back in the day they would have had their asses zotted by now.
No, but I think he is up by about 2.6 pts
did you mean high “lack” of enthusiasm?
It’s NBC. As far away from reality as you can get.
Yes
If this poll is anywhere close to reality, America is doomed.“
Well we want to think it’s BS but the breakdown on the surface seems pretty fair.
31 D 31 R the rest independents. It’s Hard not to get discouraged with all the bad polling.
There is something wrong with recent polls. After Labor Day, most polling organization switch to Likely Voter polls rather than Registered Voter polls. The they apply their model to determine who will go to the polls. Normally, the likely voter population is 3-5% higher Republican than the registered voter population.
These recent polls show no real difference between the likely and registered voter polls. Why is this? We could say that the polling organization could be manipulating the data. That’s possible, but I suspect something else.
Many Trump voters are not responding to polls and, if they are responding, they are not saying what they intend to do. There fore, those who respond do not trigger the likely voter model. I believe that polls will continue to be very unreliable right up to election days. Additionally, polls will not capture voter fraud that is a centralized and systematic scheme this year. How success this will be we cannot know, so the ultimate outcome is very much in doubt.
This place can be funny sometimes.
I remember when we went from zotting people who supported Romney in 2012 to zotting those who didn't think he stood a chance against Obama in 2012.
Trump doesn't have to worry about losing the FR vote. It's the people who aren't posting here that he needs to worry about.
Biden is in charge of the airwaves - not just the news media, but the regular programming blocks as well. He is dominating and in complete control of the “living room campaign” without any response or competing message. Trump is the devil, Biden is a saint. Trump let people die and did nothing to help in the coronavirus, Biden had a plan from the beginning that would have worked and will work. Biden is a soft-hearted, kindly old gentleman who will bring us together, Trump will divide us. Biden has a strong economic plan that will help the middle and working class whereas Trump just wants to help big corporations. That is the entirety of the message most people have been seeing without any response or competing message at all. That has an impact. The public at large don’t watch campaign rallies, they don’t visit Free Republic, etc. These campaign ads impact them. The ads probably only affect the votes of 5-10% of the public, but that’s obviously more than enough to swing an election. And while there is a lot more to winning a campaign than just campaign ads, no territory should ever be ceded to an opponent.
Thanks for this post.
Thank you for clarifying that - couldn’t tell if you saying “high lack of enthusiasm” or “high black enthusiasm” - they obviously would have two very different meanings.
That’s encouraging - some of them may not want to make the jump to voting Republican, but they may decide to just vote with their feet and stay home, which can also be effective...basically a half vote for each one that decides to do that. Though I wish they would all come around.
They forgot the X in Marist.
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