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Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows
Newsweek ^ | 09/17/2020 | Jeffery Martin

Posted on 09/25/2020 11:50:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.

Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.

While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.

In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.

Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: biden; concerntroll; election; forecastmodels; lol
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To: SeekAndFind

I guess that means Trump supporters need to try harder and Democrats needn’t bother to donate or vote.


21 posted on 09/25/2020 11:58:00 AM PDT by Chewbarkah
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To: SeekAndFind

Wow, just like Hillary


22 posted on 09/25/2020 11:58:02 AM PDT by AppyPappy (How many fingers am I holding up, Winston?)
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To: gathersnomoss

What?! You don’t trust rcp.com? LOL!


23 posted on 09/25/2020 11:58:25 AM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Same models that said Cankles had a 98% probability of winning.”

First: is that true?
Second: Would you not think they would would have fixed whatever made them get it so wrong considering there’s real money at stake?
I really hope your statement is true because there is a ton of discouragement floating out there today.


24 posted on 09/25/2020 12:00:30 PM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: SeekAndFind

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1


25 posted on 09/25/2020 12:00:42 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: SeekAndFind

Five times? Might as well make it 5,000 so the loons will be really miffed when Trump wins in a landslide.


26 posted on 09/25/2020 12:01:03 PM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: SeekAndFind

Not remotely possible with an incumbent whose approval rating is above 50%.

It’s ground prep for the attempt to steal this.


27 posted on 09/25/2020 12:01:32 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Aren’t these the same models that gave Hillary a 95% chance? Biden is in DEEP TROUBLE at <90%!!!! Look for Trump to garner 335 EVs.


28 posted on 09/25/2020 12:02:58 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Progressivism is socialism. Venezuela is how it ends.)
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To: SeekAndFind

bkmked


29 posted on 09/25/2020 12:03:58 PM PDT by DownInFlames (Gals)
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To: SeekAndFind

Noosweak.


30 posted on 09/25/2020 12:04:34 PM PDT by beethovenfan (Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
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To: gibsonguy

Can you make one thing propaganda media did not lie about since the day Trump came down the Trump Tower escalator?


31 posted on 09/25/2020 12:04:38 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("Elections have consequences. We won, you lost. Get over it." --Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: mikey_hates_everything

I’ve seen maybe 3 Hidey Ho signs around here, in San Jose CA. I have seen way more Trump Banners, stickers, car magnets and whatnot.


32 posted on 09/25/2020 12:04:42 PM PDT by SPDSHDW (Hidey Ho for Alcatraz 2020)
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To: SeekAndFind

Duly noted.


33 posted on 09/25/2020 12:05:01 PM PDT by Mr. N. Wolfe
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To: SeekAndFind

I do not know if Covid hurt Trump, but I find it very hard to believe Biden is more popular than Hillary at this point.


34 posted on 09/25/2020 12:05:14 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security in hates:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: gibsonguy

This is 100% gaslighting


35 posted on 09/25/2020 12:05:49 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Life is about ass, you're either covering, hauling, laughing, kicking, kissing, or behaving like one)
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To: SeekAndFind

Looking at Stossel’s map Trump is only PENN and one more midwest state away from winning. In fact he could win with PENN and say New Hampshire.


36 posted on 09/25/2020 12:05:56 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: SeekAndFind

Biden's press agent: "I triple-guarantee it!"


37 posted on 09/25/2020 12:05:56 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (Joe Biden: Barack Obama minus the pretty talk.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Fake media at its finest.


38 posted on 09/25/2020 12:06:28 PM PDT by kaehurowing
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Election night, I was watching some site that had a percentage meter that updated in real time as the counts came in.

It started at 99% for Hitlery and I watched it slowly and surely keep dropping until he hit 50% and then it just rolled.


39 posted on 09/25/2020 12:06:37 PM PDT by Salamander (The left screams out in pain as they stab you.)
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To: RoadieFan

I want some f what they smoke!!!


40 posted on 09/25/2020 12:06:39 PM PDT by carcraft (Pray for our Country)
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