Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
That’s all this OP does along with Williams and few others do. Find the OP I. EVERY bad poll thread slinging his doom and gloom.
In the end what the hell can we do about it anyway? We can help get people to the polls we can go vote but in the end if a poll is legitimately bad then what can we do?? there’s no sense in trying to make people feel bad or bring them down. well shall see on election day.
Not anymore, wtf are talking about??
Let’s hope all that turns out to be true this time, unlike what happened in 2018 when some “analysts” were shrieking “red wave incoming!” — or at least “our losses in the House will be minimal, and we’ll pick up beaucoup Senate seats!” — only to find out they had the wrong color of that wave.
“*They are NOT factoring the massive “shy Trump vote,” which is now at least double what it was in 2016. Baris and Cahaly BOTH say this, as does Democracy Institute (who also has Trump winning big).
*They are NOT factoring in the student vote shortfall that I wrote about 3 months ago, which will be between 1-2 MILLION nationally.
*They are NOT factoring in the sharp increases in black and Hispanics. This amounts to about 3 MILLION nationally.
*They are NOT factoring in the massive voter registration changes toward the Rs.”
One thing you might add is that Biden has preempted the GOTV efforts of the Dems with his Covid paranoia, while Trump has put substantial effort in.
Yes, this is huge. See Freeper byecomey’s analysis of where NC is with VBM: https://joeisdone.github.io/
As of now, they would be behind 2016 D VBM levels
Ah, we DID pick up senate seats in 2018.
Wanted to check. Yep.
Picked up 3 senate seats (IN, MO, FL) and came within a half point of winning AZ.
Yes, but it doesn’t help to cede all of that territory to your opponent. Just saw another ad on that same station - a 1 minute ad, very positive ad for Biden with him talking about losing his family and how that is why he fights for “quality affordable healthcare for all Americans.” It was an excellent ad - again, going completely unanswered. Biden owns this airspace unopposed. Biden is increasing his positive ratings while increasing Trump’s negatives with multiple unanswered ads. The message of this ad is nonsensical since Obamacare, which he helped push through, took away affordable healthcare for millions...but that counter message is not being received by all of these viewers.
I saw the exact same ad. It was not impressive at all. Biden was seeking sympathy for the loss of his son and wife, which is what the ad was about, not healthcare. You see, Biden is the only person in the United States who has ever suffered that kind of tragedy. He is all the time, all the time, putting up the death of his wife son to garner sympathy vote.
And answering the ad? The democrats have been lying about healthcare for years. In that ad, Biden pulls out the Obamacare card. How do you think that will really go over when people remember he wants to give Obamacare to tens of millions of illegals.
People have to be informed of that in the first place in order to remember it. That is not occurring.
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