North Carolina Voter Registration Totals Updated

North Carolina State Board of Elections ^ | 9/12/20 | me

[Ravi]

09/15/12:

DEMS: 2,769,923

REPS: 2,004,328

UNAFFILIATEDS: 1,642,118

LIBERTARIANS: 16,200

09/17/16:

DEMS: 2,676,253

REPS: 2,031,678

UNAFFILIATEDS: 1,978,589

LIBERTARIANS: 29,507

09/05/20:

DEMS: 2,549,307

REPS: 2,134,217

UNAFFILIATEDS: 2,368,123

LIBERTARIANS: 42,312

CONSTITUTION: 3,966

GREENS: 2,813

09/12/20:

DEMS: 2,552,636

REPS: 2,141,306

UNAFFILIATEDS: 2,374,167

LIBERTARIANS: 42,591

CONSTITUTION: 4,030

GREENS: 2,880

[Ravi]

Change in Voters since 09/17/16:

DEMS: -123,617

REPS: +109,628

UNAFFILIATEDS: +395,578

Change in Voters since 09/05/20:

DEMS: +3,329

REPS: +7,089

UNAFFILIATEDS: +6,044

Not bad. Unaffiliateds in Blue Counties tend to vote for the Blue team and Unaffiliateds in Red Counties tend to vote for the Red team. I didn't post this but the Unaffiliateds appear to be disbursed pretty evenly throughout the state and not just concentrated in Blue Counties (Durham, Mecklenburg, Wake, etc). They will vote pretty much how their particular county votes so that's important to know. Also couple of interesting things to me - first there is now a Constitution and Green Party in North Carolina that have active voters (who knew) and the next is important. This particular week in 2016 the DEMS were out-registering the REPS. The situation is completely reversed this time - the REPS are out-registering the DEMS. This is huge to me. The Dem voter registration machine is failing big-time compared to 2016 and voter registration closes in 4 weeks so there is not much time left. A similar situation is playing out in Florida.

Just as a side note I wish all states would let you pick a team like some states do - it would make analysis a whole lot easier.

[Ravi]

ping

[Democrats hate too much]

Thats a lot of new unaffiliated.

[SamAdams76]

I was unaffiliated for many years even though I voted Republican about 100% of the time.

It was only when Trump came on the scene that I switched to Republican. So that I could vote for him in the primaries.

[SunkenCiv]

...

[lovesdogs]

Bookmark.

[Ravi]

Yes it is but there's plenty in Red Counties that Trump won with 60,65,70,75% of the vote. So those Unaffiliateds vote the way the county does. Here's one example: Brunswick County. Trump won this county 62.50% to 34.06% fyi. Voter totals as of 10/22/16:

DEMS: 26,980

REPS: 35,001

UNAFFILIATEDS: 32,117

Either Trump won this county with 62.5% of the vote with the help of cross-over DEMS or with the help of the UNAFFILIATEDS or a combination of both. He didn't win it just with registered Republicans. That's important. The unaffiliateds in this particular county have now increased to 39,994 as of today.

[Brown Deer]

[Ravi]

yep Pennsylvania updates early next week. That will be my next post!

[inchworm]

Libertarians are gonna F it up for the whole country

[Guenevere]

Thanks

[punknpuss]

I’ve been unaffiliated since Bush’s second term. I got fed up with the republican party though as another poster stated, I vote republican 100% of the time.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

A few years ago, NC changed the rules and Unaffiliated can choose to vote in either the D or R primary.

It is crazy not to register Unaffiliated with this rule.

I am Unaffiliated and voted for Bernie in the primary and will vote straight R in the general election (I will vote about the 4th day of early voting at the Carrboro courthouse using an OpScan paper ballot).

Don’t read too much into the numbers. Strategic thinkers are registering Unaffiliated so they have more impact on the outcome.

[Ravi]

That’s good to know.

[ccmay]

Libertarians are gonna F it up for the whole country

I’m not so sure about that this year. Jorgensen is way more left than Johnson was in 2016. She’s going to pull votes from Democrats who can’t stomach Biden.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“The Dem voter registration machine is failing big-time”

I’ve been saying, for all the damage of the pandemic, the pandemic has blunted the usual DEM registration drives that normally occur in the run up to an election.

The pandemic is also costing DEMs money and manpower from unions. Union dues are down. Union “volunteers” aren’t knocking on doors. NV is a prime example.

[Wilhelm Tell]

It looks to me like a number of Democrats have shifted to Unaffiliated or Independent. Maybe the Democrats’ mad dash to being explicitly left (as opposed to pretending to be moderate) is turning people off.

[Ravi]

Primary in March 2020. The changes since then especially when compared to 2016 around same time is especially significant.

[Ravi]

Definitely some truth to that

[bort]

My suspicion is that the Democrat shortfall is largely due to drops in new registrations in college towns. Have you compared 2016 v. 2020 in counties with large colleges?