Posted on 09/08/2020 5:16:46 AM PDT by Kaslin
It has been said that numbers never lie, but statistics do. A political poll is a relative handful of numbers statistically analyzed and adjusted to yield, hopefully, simple results. On their best days, polls are educated guesses. On bad days, polls are outright lies. The Real Clear Politics National Poll Average has both.
For a poll to be reasonably accurate, it needs a relatively large sample size, a good model reflective of the electorate, and it should include only those people likely to vote, AKA likely voters. The voter model is much more important than either of the other two issues. Get this wrong, and you can get a really skewed result.
One of the basic elements of a voter model is party affiliation. This Gallup party affiliation poll shows that most voters claim to be independents, and those claiming to be either Republicans or Democrats are pretty evenly split. If you average the numbers for 2020, you find that 28.5% claim to be Republicans and 29.7% are Democrats, a gap of just over 1 percentage point. In June 2020, a Pew Research survey found party affiliation at 33% Democrat, 29% Republican, with 34% identifying as independents. There are many other things involved in a voter model, such as age, sex, ethnicity, turnout, etc., but the point is, no national voter model should have a gap in party affiliation between Republicans and Democrats greater than about 3–4% and probably less.
Now let's look at the oft cited Real Clear Politics National Poll Average, shown below, which has Joe Biden at 7.1 percentage points over Donald Trump. Is this an accurate reflection of the presidential race? Probably not.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Look at the way the DeeperDemos are acting, The internal polls are way over the top for the President.
they have all those web sites where you can create your own electoral college map. they should have one where your can create your own poll weighting.
let them give you the results by each of the self-identified party membership of respondents. and then you plug in your own weighting of the share of the total electorate that each party will have.
I remember seeing BS polls showing Ford trailing Carter by 30 points in 1976. He ended up losing by only 2 points.
I don’t think for one second there are that many Independents. They may not be able to admit what they are, but MOST identify with one party or another.
No!
I have always thought that “poll” based on yard signs was a far better indicator, especially right around the first week of October. So far, in my area of Colorado (Thornton - north suburb of Denver).... NOT A SINGLE BIDEN sign. Scattering of Trump/Pence signs.
suuuuurrrreee he is.... Can’t you see all the huge rallies, boat parades, big crowds every time he goes anywhere...
He should do his first campaign stop at a Little Miss Junior Beauty pageant.... all those 8-9 year olds for Joe to put on his lap.
“President Hillary was always way up in the polls.”
Yep. The RCP average had Hillary up by 7 points in mid October 2016.
The leftist MSM gas lighting is constant now and not just during the “silly” season.
I would say that normally, they try to close up the propaganda gap and tighten the numbers as election day approaches. I believe this year, they’re going to keep Biden up by 10+ all the way through election day. This way, if Trump has a big night, they can use those polls to sell us on how the mail-ins haven’t been completely counted and try to explain Biden “coming from behind” in future weeks and winning.
It doesn’t matter if Biden or Trump is up or down X points.
What matters is they states they up in. For instance, Biden could have California at 100%, but that is still just 55 electoral votes that ‘Pubbies weren’t going to get anyway.
So what does the Electoral College results look like?
See photo and video of Bidens biggest meeting yet.
https://twitter.com/RaymondArroyo/status/1303046600273657857
NO he is up 40 points. Go away.
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