TS Laura and Marco

NOAA/NHC ^ | 21 August 2020 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season continues to heat up as we are two weeks shy of average season peak activity. Two tropical systems are taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico concurrently. Tropical Storm Laura has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Marco is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

There is a possibility we may see the amazing Fujiwhara Effect, where two storms within 870 miles of each other will dance around each other. If one storm is significantly stronger, the weaker storm will be absorbed into the stronger storm. If the two storms are similar in size, they can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point where they either merge or they spin each other around for a while before they spin off in different directions. The likelihood of a Fujiwhara Effect is low, however, due to the relatively small area in the Gulf of Mexico.

Laura's fate is dependent upon the extent of interaction with the tall mountains of Hispanola and Cuba.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.

Laura	Marco
Laura Public Advisory	Marco Public Advisory
Laura Forecast Discussion	Marco Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Laura	Buoy/Observations near Marco

Bouy Data Northern GOM
Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Florida Keys Radar Loop with Storm Track
NW Florida Radar Loop
Mobile AL Radar Loop
West LA Radar Loop
Galveston/Houston Radar Loop

[rodguy911]

Do we have any idea how big the center will be or how far out tropical storm winds will be when it's below the keys?Has to be a tough call if its over land.this thing shows amazing resilience to stay together over land.

[Viking2002]

Yes, very odd. If you go to the National Weather Service homepage, the main warning map is showing the entire coast from the TX/LA border to the Florida Keys under a watch, and the coast between New Orleans and Mobile is under a warning. They're still saying they don't have a good grasp on landfall for either, they just spitballing based on the various forecast ensembles. Neither is going to be big or hold together long, but they will dump a of of rain. (You can tell you live in a Gulf state when your attitude is, "Meh, it's only a Category 1. We'll just get a good soaking." *chuckle*) We're about an hour NE of Montgomery and along a hurricane evacuation route, but we don't see a lot of coastal effects from these small ones, just wind and rain. But if a boomer hits, we get slapped around pretty good.

[NautiNurse]

I've been awestruck by the forecast steadfastly predicting Laura would survive crossing the length of Hispaniola and Cuba. Apparently, it has been drawing energy both north and south of the islands. Big footprint, remarkable outflow.

Comparatively, Marco is a tiny tot, with TS winds extending out 70 mi, and an eye less than 10 mi diameter.

[rodguy911]

Gotcha same here,I guess as it gets more into cuba we will get a better idea of its reach into the Keys.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Marco
About 300 MI SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds 75 MPH
Moving NNW at 14 MPH
Minimum Pressure 992 MB

[nevergore]

Warm water and no wind shear..... would someone more knowledgeable please explain why this storm is not expected to exceed a class 1?

[numberonepal]

GOES sats are focusing on the two storms:
GOES page for Marco
GOES page for Laura

[numberonepal]

...would someone more knowledgeable please explain why this storm is not expected to exceed a class 1?

Local news is saying Cat 2 at landfall for Marco. He keeps trying to get a visible eyewall but can't quite catch it.

[Paul R.]

Per NHC (latest "discussion"):

Based on the SHIPS guidance, Marco has about a 12-24 hour window to intensify in an environment characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, very warm waters, and plenty of atmospheric moisture. After that time, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and this should begin to dominate the cyclone's environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, forecasting Marco to become a hurricane later today, and maintaining hurricane intensity up until landfall in agreement with the latest LGEM intensity guidance. While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system.

[miserare]

Like you, I am way inland.

But I will never forget Agnes in 1972.

[miserare]

😂😱🤪

[miserare]

I am still hearing “Unprecedented” from the weather terrorists on TWC.

[miserare]

The name Laura reminds me of the woeful character years ago on “General Hospital”.

She was always being dumped on by Luke. Talk about a woman scorned!

Will this be her grand vengeance?

[blam]

Think Of Laura

[CrimsonTidegirl]

Thank you for the update. Stay safe.

[WildHighlander57]

rodguy911 wrote:

“THe house we are in now had a generator.Two days before we took possession the previous owner removed it.He tried to sell it back to me several months later.I can’t print what I told him.....”

Anything attached/bolted down is part of the house.

Did he advertise the house as having a generator?

If so, then you may have had recourse.

[miserare]

Thanks for the link.

Was that really almost 40 years ago?

[NautiNurse]

500 PM NHC Update

TS Laura	Hurricane Marco
Laura Slightly Stronger Just South of Eastern Cuba...	Hurricane Marco...Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Storm Surge and Hurricane-Force Winds to U.S. Gulf Coast...
Location About 50 MI S of Guantanamo Cuba Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH Moving WNW at 21 MPH Pressure 1000 MB Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.	Location About 240 MI SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River Max Sustained Winds...75 MPH Moving NNW at 13 MPH Pressure 991 MB A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of LA from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for LA for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cameron to west of Morgan City, LA. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center... Tropical Storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[DrewsMum]

I’m just wondering why they think marco will vere severely west at the last minute.

If it doesn’t, surely that has implications for Laura...

[jpsb]

thanks for these threads!