Primary night in 5 states, OPEN THREAD (MICH, MO, KS, WA, AZ)

vanity | August 4, 2020 | self

[campaignPete R-CT]

August 4, 2020:

Arizona - State Primary

Kansas - State Primary

Michigan - State Primary

Missouri - State Primary

Washington - State Primary

MICHIGAN polls close at 8 pm EDT

KS 7 CDT

MO 7 CDT

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Michigan #3 leaders are :

Lynn Afendoulis (R)

Peter Meijer (R)

Michigan 10, OPEN .... safe Republican:

Doug Slocum (R) $532,505

Lisa McClain (R) raised $1,772,125

Shane Hernandez (R)

Michigan #11

Eric Esshaki (R)

Carmelita Greco (R)

.

District 13:

Rashida Tlaib (D)* - SQUAD leader

Brenda Jones (D) - Detroit City Council President

.

Missouri:

I don’t see any competitive GOP primaries.

.

Kansas:

Senate ... Marshall vs Kobach

KS #1, safe GOP open

Tracey Mann (R)

Bill Clifford (R)

KS #2

Steve Watkins (R) • Incumbent raised $1,001,276

Jake Laturner (R) raised $772,070

KS #3

Sara Hart Weir (R)

Amanda Adkins (R)

Adrienne Foster (R)

.

Washington, jungle primaries

Governor primary, Attorney General Primary

WA #10, open ... DEMs in primary battle

.

Arizona

AZ #1

Tiffany Shedd (R)

Nolan Reidhead (R)

AZ #2

Brandon Martin (R)

Noran Eric Ruden (R)

[campaignPete R-CT]

i added 2 seats to the targeted primaries:

WA-8
47% reporting
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Kim Schrier* Democrat 53,627 44.6%
Jesse Jensen Republican 21,411 17.8
Keith Swank Republican 20,813 17.3
Dave Saulibio Republican 15,800 13.1

Cook has it as Likely Democrat Hold. PVI is EVEN
Jensen is the only GOP who raised money.

Wisconsin, CD-3 August 11

https://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/intense-race-to-the-right-ebben-and-van-orden-battle-for-congressional-gop-nomination/article_737f047e-5231-5ca1-885c-fcc7abac8da2.html

Jessi Ebben (R) $169,290
Derrick Van Orden (R) $707,352

COOK has it as Likely Dem Hold. PVI Even
vs. Ron Kind, Democrat

[fieldmarshaldj]

Bitch doesn’t even live in St. Louis proper, but in the suburb of Northwoods (one of those northside areas that drove all the White folks out). According to OurCampaigns, Lacy Clay lives in STL County, too (and the White nutter girl who also ran in the primary, who lives in 90% White Webster Groves), with a pin for his residence in University City (which is barely majority White).

It’s funny to see the three pins running from the deranged no man’s land of North STL suburbs (Bush’s home) to the rich, tony White areas on the Southwest side (the leftist White girl).

Poor Lacy, he endorsed all the far-left stances, endorsed all the nutters, the soulless Gretchen Whitmer, Keef X in Minnesota, even the Canadian Communist Sinator Whore in California for President, and this is the thanks he gets. Out with the trash in favor of someone who thinks killing the American Republic and getting rid of cops and education will turn us into Wakanda.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Ron Kind is long overdue to be dumped. Getting back WA-8 is paramount. It sucks that GOVERNOR Rossi was screwed out of another office there in 2018.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Rian Ingrim Washington 10
Republican. looks like the worst candidate for that seat

Jackson Maynard was the way to go.

GOP didnt contest that seat this year. must be focused on 3 and 8

they are all broke and the lady in MINN has 4 million to waste against Ilhan Omar

[AuH2ORepublican]

Upon seeing the vote results from MO-02, I’m convinced that Ann Wagner is in huge trouble in due to shifting demographics and suburban Republicans ditching the party. Of the 166,731 total votes cast in the primaries in the district, a whopping 61.5% were cast for Jill Schupp (the only candidate in the Democrat primary) and only 37.8% were cast for Wagner (the only candidate in the GOP primary). These numbers are brutal:

U.S. Representative - District 2 798 of 798 Precincts Reported

Ann Wagner Republican 63,404 100.000% Party Total: 63,404

Jill Schupp Democratic 102,592 100.000% Party Total: 102,592

Martin Schulte Libertarian 735 100.000% Party Total: 735

Total Votes: 166,731

https://enr.sos.mo.gov

The MO-02 had a GOP registration edge in this suburban St. Louis district until the last two or three years, but now the Democrats have a 24% edge in primary-vote performance. President Trump carried the district by 10% in 2016 (nearly matching Romey’s 14% victory), but given yesterday’s results I expect that he’ll lose it by 10%+ this November. We probably will lose this seat, and we will not make up for it by winning additional rural seats in the state, since we already hold every other CD outside of the two safe RAT urban-based seats in St. Louis and Kansas City. We need to win back the suburbs nationwide if we’re going to recapture the U.S. House of Representatives or hold the Senate and presidency.

[campaignPete R-CT]

A) statewide in MO, GOP turnout was higher than DEM. As expected. I would look and see if any of the contested state Senate DEM primaries were in Wagner’s district. That would be significant.

B) Conservatives had ZERO victories in Federal races yesterday. Maybe Jensen WA-8. but that was an underperform.
Conservative PACS have money, but nationally we dont have 1000 people to give $1000 to viable conservative primary candidates. Our candidates cannot compete financially with the GOP establishment candidates. I consider all 3 tough GOP MICHIGAN primaries to be defeats.

C) if GOP is going to get back WA-10 in future, maybe it is best for communist Doglio to win in 2020. Tougher for her to keep the seat. Will they strengthen the DEM advantage in that district with the new map?

[Impy]

Wagner needs to start acting like she’s running against Cori Bush (Not Schupp [gesundheit]) because SHE IS.

[DoodleDawg]

All of these states had a much larger than normal number of mail-in ballots. Any reports of fraud in any of the states? And contests still undecided because all the mail-in votes haven’t been counted?

[Impy]

Interesting info on mail in ballots. Of course it’s out the window this year with most rats saying they will vote by mail.

The President is now urging Florida Republicans to vote by mail saying it’s safe in that state. Evidence in other states suggests ballots might be lost.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini

Swing states with the biggest Dem advantages in vote by mail (net partisan lean of vote-by-mail voters vs. others).

IA 16.7%
ME 12.4%
NC 8.5%
WI 7.8%
NH 7.0%

Swing states with a GOP vote-by-mail advantage:

NV 11.8%
CO 10.5%
MI 8.6%
TX 0.8%
FL 0.5%

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

That explains why Hillary was not able to overtake Trump in MI. I did not know that about NV and CO.

[Impy]

Lost power for an hour or so. It was back to the 19th century with battery powered radios and trying to charge my phone on a fully charged laptop. At least the sun was still out.

[Impy]

Sabato moved Kansas down below Alaska and SC on the list of rat targets. I am breathing a sigh of relief.

Auh2, what did you think about Marshall/Kobach

[AuH2ORepublican]

As I have mentioned before, Kris Kobach was a year ahead of me in law school, and even in the rarified air of Yale Law School he stood out for his academic achievements, and girls absolutely swooned over him. I knew that he was a conservative (he was a fellow Federalist), but I did not know just how conservative he was.

When Kobach first ran for Congress, I thought that he could use that as a springboard to higher office and perhaps, eventually, the presidency. But he lost in the politically marginal, mostly suburban KS-03, which had been held by RINOs and Democrats for years. That set his aspirations back by a few years, but he stayed active in GOP politics, chaired the state oarty, abd had the presence of mind to run for Secretary of State in 2010, a good GOP year. He was reelected in 2014 (another good GOP year), and set his sights on the governorship. Throughout this period, he was a national leader on using state and local laws to discourage illegal immigration, and took very conservative positions on most issues. He was exactly the type of Republican that we wanted to become governor of Kansas and, someday, president.

But despite having the good fortune of having a liberal independent, who four years previously had been the Democrats’ choice for the U.S. Senate, running in the general election and taking votes away from the Democrat nominee, Kobach still lost handily. I think that it’s a travesty how so many Kansas Republicans believed media lies about him and turned their backs on him, but that’s what happened, and I don’t believe that the impression that Kansas voters have of Kobach has changed over the past two years. If Kobach had become the GOP Senate nominee, it would have given the Democrats a fairly good chance of winning their first U.S. Senate election in Kansas since 1932.

So when faced with a choice of Kobach or Congressman Roger Marshall (who is not a conservative leader but will continue to be a reliable vote in the GOP caucussolid conservative vote), I unhesitatingly supported Marshall, who will win the general without breaking a sweat. At this juncture, we cannot afford to give the Democrats for six years a seat that rightfully should be ours. I would have preferred someone more energetically conservative than Marshall, such as Secretary Pompeo, but Pompeo didn!t run, and there’s no use crying over spilled milk. Roger Marshall is fine, and he’ll be solid in the Senate.

Kris Koback would have given us 100% of what we would want in a U.S. senator, while Marshall only gives us like 90%-95% of what we would want, but if we lose the general election we’d get 0% of what we want. I, for one, am very happy that Marshall won the prinary; it’s one thing less about which to worry this November. And we will have a lot about which to worry this November.

[Impy]

I did ask you before, sorry I forgot. ;d

Yeah I think

“I’ll give you 85 bucks or we can flip a coin, heads you get $100, tails I kick you the balls once a week for the next 6 years.” is a decent analogy. I’ll take the $85, it’s just not with the risk.

[Impy]

I would join you in wishing that MN-5 GOP candidate Lacy Johnson (who is a man BTW) would give that money to candidates that can win. What’s left of it anyway, he’s spent 80% of it.

I mean......maybe it’s a little better than just burning the money to see if the fumes get you high but unless he’s running statewde ads about how much Collin Peterson and especially Angie Craig have in common with Omar then.......

In MN-7, previous nominee Hughes raised little, and spend it all. I’m guessing Ex Reluctant LT Governor Michelle Fischbach is the best bet over the Dr. guy. But that brings up a bad memory about Nancy Hollister in 1998. Number of ex-LT Governors in Congress?

In MN-3, likely unwinnable at this point, the GOP candidate actually has more cash on hand than the rat freshman who spent most of his! Sadly that is not the case in the winnable MN-2.

MN-1 rat raised a lot of money, I don’t know how much is his own.

[Impy]

Maybe the medicaid thing brought out the rat voters and turnout patterns in November will be different? 😐

[Deplorable American1776]

Is the district it is running for a Demo district or a Rep district?

[Impy]

The tranny? It’s a democrat seat in Wichita. Stephanie Byers is it’s name.

Hillary got 52.6% in the district, I don’t know what the Trump number was but I’d say 40% tops given the high third party vote. Last election the Republican got 36% of the vote and that was the best performance in 4 elections under the current district lines.

[LS]

If Marshall merely falls in line with the judges and is NOT a Minion Romney, then that’s all I expect. We desperately need to NOT lost safe seats. AZ is a potential loss, though I think McSally has picked up a little steam here in the past month.

[LS]

Thanks for this info, Impy. Gonna use it, with credit, in an article.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I hope that you’re right, but please note that the Medicaid referendum didn’t bring out Democrats in the other GOP-held districts.