Posted on 07/09/2020 8:30:05 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
Skip the first 2 minutes to avoid his commercials.
Nice piece from Dr Steve Hurley. Highlights.
1. New Express poll has Trump tied with Biden at 47% each.
2. In case you think it's an outlier, Zogby also had a poll June 30th with Trump and Biden tied at 46% each. (Not to mention the Harris poll which had the gap between Biden and Trump down to just 4%).
3. The Express poll had Trump on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump outpolls Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.
4. Express poll: Given a choice between which phrases identified their views 71 percent chose “all lives matter” while 29 percent picked “black lives matter”. 77% are against defunding the police. Overwhelming numbers are against destruction of statues.
5. Historically, riots have always led to big swings to Republicans in voting. Reagan beat Gov Jerry Brown in a landslide in 1966 after the Watts riots for example.
6. Most polls under count White non college educated males who make up the strongest base for Trump. Politico did a piece on that recently.
7. In 2016, Trump did so well with non college education White male, he'd have won even if Hilary Clinton had the same Black voter turn out as Obana did.
8. Trump won over 200 counties that voted twice for Obama and in some cases hadn't voted Republican since the 1980’s mostly due to rural non college educated Whites.
Bottom line: Trump is poised to put Slow Joe out of business come November.
Worth watching if you have a minute or two.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtu.be ...
Why collectively poll swing States at all?
More informative than a national poll. Easier than doing a poll in each of 10 states.
Whomever wins the popular vote in the swing states is almost certainly the winner of EV. UNLIKE NPV
In ‘16, let’s give 205 EV to DJT. including NE2.
203 to HRC. include Maine statewide.
Poll the 10 swing states. Popular vote in those 10.
Trump won by 244,000.
18,270,000
18,026,000
0.67% margin.
Razor thin large states went to trump. Random chance really.
Trump’s margin was 188k in the 5 closest states. 56k in the other 5 which split their EVs equally, DT HC.
Hillary lost due to her poor targeting strategy. Same reason she lost in 08 to Bambi
Not all polls are the same.
Look at it this way. Almost all the other polls are from deranged Trump hating outfits like the New York Times, CNN, ABC, NBC etc.
Now I don't trust any news from the these guys. They have repeatedly proved they will lie, cheat, make stuff up to try and destroy Trump.
If I don't trust their news, why would I trust their polls?
The Express is a more conservative newspaper though much less conservative than they used to be. They don't have a history of rabid Trump hatred. For that reason alone their polls are far more believable than CNN or the New York Times.
Not to mention they still had Trump at only 47% approval, which was about the same as Rasmussen at the time.
Why trust any polls? If the polls from Trump haters are biased against him how do you know that polls from Trump supporters are not biased for him?
Yup. Happens every single time against Republican candidates.
The media had Dukakis winning by a massive 17 points in July 1988. Bush Snr ended up crushing Dukakis in November 1988.
Reading Newsweek in mid 1980, they told me Reagan was some kind of far right nut job who has too extreme to win and that Carter was solidly ahead in the polls and headed for a comfortable win. Reagan smoked Carter in November.
They lie about the polls throughout the election year to discourage and suppress Republican turnout . Then a few days begin the elections they tighten it up to cover their butts.
This year, their hatred of Trump is so virulent, they may not even tighten their fake polls in November.
Like I said, The Express is not exactly pro Trump. They are not rabidly anti Trump either.
CNN NYT are rabidly anti Trump. It’s pathological. CNN spews out pure Trump hatred 24/7. Why would anyone believe anything from them let alone their polls?
The only poll that means anything occurs November 3rd.
Obviously.
And Trump will win.
The networks never covered his speech. They are scared he’ll win over new voters.
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