Posted on 07/06/2020 7:08:40 PM PDT by BeauBo
The Congressional Budget Office is predicting the economy will come roaring out of the coronavirus recession with growth surging to 12.4% the rest of this year, before settling back into the longer-term trend of about half that.
Unemployment will peak at more than 14% but “fall quickly” as the economy rebounds later this year and into next year, the CBO said in its new update Thursday...
CBO can’t be sure of the numbers it’s using.
“A further contributor to the overall uncertainty is that the speed and intensity of the recent downturn have greatly increased the difficulty of recording and compiling reliable economic data; CBO’s projections are based on data that may later be substantially revised,” the nonpartisan agency said.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
and the stock futures are sinking?
Yes. assuming this news came out this evening dow futures are down 100 points. I would expect them to be up
My investments have been doing gangbusters. The lows for me have been soft but the highs have been sharp.
If this prediction comes true it 100% guarantees a Trump reelection - and probably another end to oblm.
Rising today.
When the stimulus runs out, unemployment pops up, and commercial real estate feels the full effect of the work from home ‘new normal’, without additional stimulus, we will be facing a severe retrenchment in late December or January.
12%! Wow. We’ll see.
Stocks don’t go up every single day.
They went up a lot today.
Some profit taking tomorrow may be in order.
The only thing left for the communists now is to have an alien invasion from outer space.
:)
Always love your posts. Plenty of good cheer.
The thing is anyone who bought into the markets when the Dow sank to lows of near 18,000 has now made a lot of money now. Every crisis presents opportunities.
HLM/Antifa ferals?
Actually a lot of workings are staying home collecting benefits and do not want to work. Employers are getting desperate so they can increase their business.
Once they HAVE to go back to work there will be another spike in revenue and confidence will increase further. And without H1B cheap tech labor American’s who have been suffering for the last five years will be making a real wage again.
“Every crisis presents opportunities.”
My Inner Capitalist could not agree with you more! :)
Bye, bye Joe.
For every rosy prediction you can fund a pessimistic one. I just finished an article on MarketWatch where some “expert” predicted a 40% market drop.
Which reminds me of a story. An interviewer once asked Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Funds, what was the best advice he ever got.
Bogle said it happened when he was a young man working as a orders runner at a financial firm. One day he asked a senior runner a question. Who at the firm was the most knowledgeable about the stock market?
“Nobody knows nothing,” The senior runner said.
Some online forums mentioned stores are keeping inventory extremely low through 2020, maybe longer. Unsure how long a recession will last, they said stores don’t want to be stuck with lots of inventory no one will buy.
Computers and electronics especially are affected. That first wave of shortages due to virus and China shipments, workers suddenly sent home needing equipment, kids needing home equipment for school work, etc., caused first shortage. But they said stores now are keeping low stock due to recession concerns.
Of course, it’s still easy to buy a computer online. But if you go to stores, Office Depot, even Walmart, you will see little store inventory in many places now.
How can the market set records when the economy tanked 30%. Unemployment jumped 30 million .... I know I’m not an investment wiz but it just doesn’t make sense.
“a lot of workers are staying home collecting benefits”
...and they are getting the $600/week extra, on top of their normal unemployment - without a lot of opportunity to spend the extra on anything much, during quarantine.
When they do back to spending, they (as a group) are going to have a lot of extra cash burning holes in their pockets.
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