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Coronavirus: The Wrong Numbers
The American Spectator ^ | April 6, 2020 | Robert Stacy McCain

Posted on 04/10/2020 2:55:23 PM PDT by CheshireTheCat

...While the cumulative totals of cases and deaths continue rising, the media are doing a lousy job of reporting the most important numbers: How many COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized? How many new patients are admitted to the hospital each day, and how many patients are discharged? The reason for “social distancing” policies was to slow the spread of the disease, to “flatten the curve” of the pandemic and avoid overwhelming the hospital system. We have reason to believe that these policies are succeeding in that regard, and something else may explain why we may be averting the “apex” crisis: chloroquine....

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Statistics without adequate context are not much better than lies.
1 posted on 04/10/2020 2:55:23 PM PDT by CheshireTheCat
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To: CheshireTheCat

“How many COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized?”

The problem of the Unknown Demoninator keeps that from being known.

That can’t be solved until there is enough widespread testing of the general population to find out how many people have had mild or asymptomatic cases.

Right now only suspected cases are being tested, which skews numbers to the high side.


2 posted on 04/10/2020 3:05:18 PM PDT by Pelham (Mary McCord, Sally Yates and Michael Atkinson all belong in prison.)
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To: Pelham
I believe that the number of actual cases is being skewed to the low side. In other words there are almost certainly more people who have contracted the disease, or have been exposed and built up an immunity without being counted in the "official" statitistics.

Similarly, for various reasons (and/or incentives), more deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 than are probably warranted. I mean if you had terminal cancer, were 85 and contracted the disease, COVID-19 may have contributed but did not cause the death.

I imagine the true rate of fatality will take years to sort out, and even then, be subject to debate.

3 posted on 04/10/2020 3:14:54 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: CheshireTheCat

Divide the deaths by the population of the U.S. and you have a better chance to .... the Pope.


4 posted on 04/10/2020 3:16:57 PM PDT by HighSierra5
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To: Pelham; neverdem; ProtectOurFreedom; Mother Abigail; EBH; vetvetdoug; Smokin' Joe; Global2010; ...
When in the entire course of human history have people who were merely exposed but not sick enough to talk to their local shaman, medicine man, witch, or doctor counted as part of the denominator?

Why not just use the entire population of the universe as the denominator it you are going to count people who were never sick?

That would give you a very low morbidity number and that's all that matters, isn't it?

Orange Man Bad! Him kill economy cuz 0.000000000000001% die!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

5 posted on 04/10/2020 3:21:08 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: fhayek

If you were still kicking until you caught the virus, other health issues aside, then it’s safe to say that the virus killed you because there’s no reason to presume you’d be dead anyways from a condition you lived with for so many years.


6 posted on 04/10/2020 3:24:51 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith..)
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To: CheshireTheCat
Southcentral Alaska (call it 60% of the total population) 112 confirmed cases - tested and confirmed. BTW, you have to have a doctors conslut to get a test This from a population of over 400K 112/400,000 is 0.00028% - proof we needed to shut the economy down
7 posted on 04/10/2020 3:28:52 PM PDT by ASOC (Having humility really means one is rarely humiliated)
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To: CheshireTheCat
Florida COVID cases

Shallow curve possibly because of this:

Is Hydroxychloroquine Making Covid-19 Clinical Trials Harder?

Of course, to do this right — to really know that the gas was the crucial factor — one of his fellow doctors advised that they should exclude Covid-19 patients who were already using other experimental coronavirus therapies, including the anti-malarial and lupus drug hydroxychloroquine (brand name Plaquenil), and tocilizumab, a common arthritis medication.

But this, Alvarez already knew, would be a challenge. “I very plainly told him, I agree with you from a science standpoint,” Alvarez said, “but I can tell you that if you did that right now in Miami, you would have no patients in your trial.” That’s because the vast majority of patients ill enough to need ventilators were already taking one or both of these drugs.

8 posted on 04/10/2020 3:41:46 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." -- Voltaire)
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To: CheshireTheCat

9 posted on 04/10/2020 3:44:14 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
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To: CheshireTheCat

It is easy for fools to be critical of numbers of which they know virtually nothing.

The numbers were never wrong. The numbers were always the best available at the time projected on the available data

It is easy for ignorant people to be critical in retrospect


10 posted on 04/10/2020 3:47:35 PM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
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To: CheshireTheCat
Santa Clara County (CA) has a good dashboard. The numbers are really encouraging. "Surge capacity" has hardly been touched (1.1% utilization to-date)...


11 posted on 04/10/2020 4:22:54 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: CheshireTheCat
Statistics without adequate context are not much better than lies.

There are 3 types of liars: liars, damn liars and statisticians"

Statistics are only useful, when you know the whole story about how and why those terribly wrong stats came into existence.

Cui Bueno or who benefitted from the bad/horrible stats? Who paid for them?

12 posted on 04/10/2020 4:29:22 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Evolution works! Can not stand the heat! Get off the planet! Gorebull Warming weeding out the weak!)
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To: bert; NobleFree; Paladin2; aMorePerfectUnion; gas_dr; dp0622; null and void; DoughtyOne; ...
As long as we're talking numbers, here is today's installment of the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world. Below is today's update with April 9th totals for the US and other countries that started their round of golf on March 26. While the US' time series ends on Day 16 (which is April 9 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 16 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

To help with one FRiend who hinted that the grid was mind-boggling, I can post the fatalities in the 1,000, i.e., the US Day 16 total is sixteen point five thousand fatalities. Let me know if that would work for you or not.

The US' ranking improved one notch, with Switzerland now rising in the ranks (note: rising in the ranks is not a good thing). As noted previously, the 'hands-off' countries like Sweden and the Netherlands have higher adjusted fatalities but some would question if the economic carnage was worth about 2.4M-5.7M fewer fatalities. (The answer: if would, if one of those fatalities was your mum.)

Country Date of Day 1/1,000 population-adjusted deaths Day 14 Day 15 Day 16 Day 17 Day 18 Day 19 Day 20
San Marino 3/3/20 68,711 68,711 107,974 107,974 137,421 196,316 196,316
Andorra 3/21/20 68,000 72,250 76,500 89,250 93,500 97,750 106,250
United Kingdom 3/15/20 34,021 41,018 47,016 59,744 78,537 97,497 120,322
Spain 3/13/20 30,541 35,950 41,855 47,600 53,988 59,222 65,680
Belgium 3/19/20 23,678 28,911 32,686 36,689 41,379 46,669 58,193
West Bank and Gaza 3/25/20 28,167 28,167 28,167 - - - -
France 3/18/20 17,353 19,864 26,521 32,034 37,212 39,762 43,855
Netherlands 3/17/20 16,335 19,640 22,189 25,324 28,138 31,273 33,445
Italy 3/5/20 16,291 18,627 22,057 26,395 29,956 33,244 37,308
Sweden 3/23/20 12,789 15,213 18,848 21,910 25,290 - -
Ireland 3/25/20 14,062 15,736 17,611 - - - -
Switzerland 3/16/20 11,514 13,779 16,619 18,730 20,572 22,683 25,561
United States 3/25/20 12,722 14,695 16,478 - - - -
Luxembourg 3/17/20 11,810 12,347 15,568 16,105 16,642 16,642 19,326
Macedonia 3/24/20 11,153 12,608 14,063 14,548 - - -
Portugal 3/23/20 9,460 9,973 11,064 12,186 13,116 - -
Denmark 3/22/20 9,112 10,131 10,584 11,489 12,338 13,414 -
Germany 3/25/20 7,990 9,310 10,333 - - - -
Austria 3/23/20 7,552 8,144 8,995 10,106 10,920 - -
Iran 3/9/20 6,664 7,166 7,649 8,214 8,835 9,404 9,954
Iceland 3/23/20 3,619 5,428 5,428 5,428 5,428 - -
Cyprus 3/23/20 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,762 - -

13 posted on 04/10/2020 4:31:17 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: fhayek
Antibody testing starting Friday in L.A. County to find past COVID-19 infections
14 posted on 04/10/2020 4:56:38 PM PDT by blam
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To: Pelham

I’m guessing we could multiply the known cases by at least 10, thus dropping the CFR to around 0.3 percent.


15 posted on 04/10/2020 5:15:09 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! (when I feel heavy metal) Wu Flu! (when I'm pins and I'm needles) Wu Flu!)
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To: metmom

Fallacious reasoning. Nothing ever happens until it does... People die all the time for no apparent reason.


16 posted on 04/10/2020 5:18:03 PM PDT by SandwicheGuy (*The butter acts as a lubricant and speeds up the CPU)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

It’s possible. Without knowing how wide the asymptomatic infection pool is it’s anyone’s guess.


17 posted on 04/10/2020 7:34:26 PM PDT by Pelham (Mary McCord, Sally Yates and Michael Atkinson all belong in prison.)
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To: fhayek; Pelham; null and void; All

Recent reports say people are being removed by the hundreds from NY homes, but are not counted as Covid dead. Are they saving tissue to check on the cause of death and getting true statistics? There are probably politicians who would rather avoid having true statistics. True rate will NEVER be sorted out if they are not preserving tissue samples of non hospitalized dead.


18 posted on 04/10/2020 11:34:50 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: CheshireTheCat; All

This is why I recommend folks tune in to the weekday Task Force briefings which the President gives...helps debunk a lot of the crap being put out all over the place...there’s a reason (or two) the Fake News folks and other Leftists wish they would stop holding/airing the briefings...


19 posted on 04/11/2020 4:10:46 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: gleeaikin

“Are they saving tissue to check on the cause of death and getting true statistics?”

My guess is that NYC medical is much too busy running covid tests on live patients right now but could be saving tissue from the dead for later testing. You would hope so, we need to have a bigger pool of the general pop to get an idea of how widespread the virus is.


20 posted on 04/11/2020 1:02:06 PM PDT by Pelham (Mary McCord, Sally Yates and Michael Atkinson all belong in prison.)
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