By Ronan Kelly, https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/842586-comparing-flu-and-covid-19-deaths#post842586.
By Ronan Kelly, https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/842586-comparing-flu-and-covid-19-deaths#post842586.
His comments about the chart above:
For the past several years, I have been plotting and comparing week to week influenza mortality data gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths per year is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week. I added US coronavirus deaths by week to the plot and got this:
(See chart)
I know it’s not apples to apples, the estimated number of flu deaths is about 6 times higher than the numbers recorded by the NCHS, but there is every reason to believe that the actual number of coronavirus fatalities is also larger than the subset that gets confirmed. There has only been 4 weeks of data. Where is this going to end up?
That graph does look closer to reality. In only a few weeks, the numbers for COVID-19 have jumped.
Wow, that chart effectively communicates the acute nature of the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic. Now hopefully we will see real data for HCQ treatment soon and seize back control of our lives.
So the worst week in the worst year on that chart (past 8 years) is 1600 deaths or about 230 per day.
We’ve been cranking that all week. 515 yesterday. With a tiny segment of the population infected (I stand by my <1% estimate).
20% of the population gets the flu on average (CDC estimate, FWIW) each season (really, only about 7-8 months of the year).
Without ongoing containment, it would be all over already.