Posted on 03/29/2020 7:46:10 AM PDT by janetjanet998
Yesterday's thread here: https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3828913/posts?page=1
“I wonder how that traffic jam compares to traffic on other days/years....when there’s no Escape from NY happening :)”
They way Google estimates that traffic is with tracking cell phones’ gps. Google knows those phones should be moving at about 70 mph on that road.
It’s not the entire nation you should be paying attention to. Look at the stats for the stats that are getting hit.
It was never going to hit everyone at one time. Compare the flu numbers for NY state (probably about 1,000) flu deaths, YTD and about 180,00 flu tests.
And then look at Louisiana.
I know you are downplaying the whole thing, and on a national basis, you are likely correct. But, in the hot spots this is blowing the socks off the flu.
LOL.
Too much validation coming from you, Missy.
;-)
The hospital morgues are not a good indicator. Hospital morgues are TINY. A modest increase in normal flu puts them over the flow. It is normal to use the National Guard/Emergency back up during the most minimal mass casualty incident.
Just a bit of insider information from a guy who had an office next door to the morgue.
When I say, “my country”, I’m referring to Kentucky. Kentucky is to the US what France is to the EU.
Yeah, the selfishness we’ve fostered for decades coming home to roost.
Specific new case numbers from New York:
Steve Lookner
@lookner
7,195 new cases in New York State
4,002 new cases in New York City
With all respect, I was a business analyst, staffing analyst, and financial analyst in telecom, banking, and hospitals.
Unless you have done specific work in healthcare, you wouldn’t know they are not “widgets.” There are legal and regulatory constraints on EVERYTHING. Then there are internal healthcare systems constraints. Then there are procedural time constraints.
Trying to do case management projection, staffing, and bed management is juggling chainsaws...because if you F up...people literally die. If you screw up the other way, you lose bed revenue.
I appreciate your math skills. But as someone that went from pretty high level six sigma service management (multiple call center/web support SVP for a large bank.) into the healthcare...it’s a different world.
You can search tom tom congestion. You can plug in any city and it will give you 7 days of data against the average for the past year.
That’s all well and good. Kentucky is in no way similar to NY.
Usually that is a good thing. You could compare Kentucky to NY xNYC. Kentucky has much more average distance between folks than NYC. It’s similar to Upstate.
Aerospace, banking, retail, utilities, data mining, military, health insurance and a few others. !8 companies total.
What I’ve learned is that even rocket science ain’t rocket science.
To qupte Albert Einstein, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.”
I believe that anyone with an average, and especially above average, intelligence, can understand a subject enough to know when they are being bullchited.
Ok.
You win. You are the smartest guy in the room. Either you are a consultant with a cookie cutter approach, or you are shitty at your job in 18 industries. Because it was fun watching you guys come into hospitals and get owned.
You would learn pretty fast ( as I did) that you are not even close to the smartest person in the room.
The proper answer would have been to ask what the constraints are for cleaning an isolation room...or the restrictions on hours worked...or how long does a sterilization cycle take..and so on, and so forth.
So, go crunch your numbers. I was you once. I got my head handed to me in a way that I hadn’t since I was 25. The difference is I want to learn. You want to “tell.” It’s tough to have a conversation with people like you.
And it is simple...
Calculate the bed turnover against the waiting patients. Make sure you account for the ICU turnover, telemetry needs, working around normal inflow , available beds (you didn’t realize hospitals lease those, did you), available isolation rooms, available hospitalists, extra infection control. Also include transport. Housekeeping. Suuply chain, and friggin laundry. Oh yeah...feed them all.
AND every friggin thing you touch is hazardous material. Oh man...you know how to get rid of that right?
Now..double your flow with a continually diminishing staff.
And keep your records straight, families informed, and networks working.
And, required maintenance for that machine is happening four times as fast. You got people for that?
And, your lab is short this week. And the reagent that does all those tests, you just ran out. Sorry.
Now calculate your flow for the next two weeks.
Simple enough for you?
I encourage everyone to move to the originally sequenced thread...here...
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3829536/posts?page=1
Oh..I forgot. The morgue has four slots. We have ten dead people. And your backup morgue...the county morgue is full too.
Quick they ARE literally using gurneys that we need for transport.
Wow, that chart effectively communicates the acute nature of the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic. Now hopefully we will see real data for HCQ treatment soon and seize back control of our lives.
It’s not about intelligence. For example. I know, at age 66, that the two most dangerous places I could go are a San Francisco bath house and a hospital. I avoid both like the plague. Fortunately it’s pretty easy. :)
Your specifics are all valid, but outside the scope of what I’m talking about here. We had all sorts of laws, protocol and regulations during the Civil War as well.
Sometimes one needs to get past it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miYCPS_r9Wk
Let me know when that happens.
We seem to be too concerned about wild predictions on how many gumballs will be in the machine next week. That is where we disagree.
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