Posted on 03/25/2020 9:39:13 PM PDT by fwdude
A major source of information upon which government leaders have relied to urge or order the canceling of public events, shut down of businesses and sheltering in place has proved to be inaccurate.
The Federalist's Madeline Osburn points out many members of the media and state officials are relying on an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now.
The site, with a map of catastrophic forecasts for each state, boasts of enabling "political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling."
"But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now's predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister," Osburn wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
Inciting panic used to be considered a bad thing.
I think there used to be laws against it.
1.5% death rate at this point. With the common flu at 10% death rate both confirmed cases. 20% death rate for common flu for those in old age homes
Have you watched the correlation between number of tests and number of new cases?
First of all, having “Act Now” in the name of any organization or website is automatically a red flag in my opinion.
—
Indeed, alarm bells go off with the name. Reminiscent of “Move on”. I wonder just who funded this site?
Minimum CDC Estimates for Seasonal influenza...
Cases - 38 million
Deaths - 23,000"
Yup.
The good news about this map, a pre-Corona snapshot, is the depth and breadth of the flu season tranched an immune-active population in the US. It may end up being our silver lining...
I have not. Would be interested in your thoughts on it.
I have a family member that had to be tested last week.
First of all, they had just set up the ability to do a large number of
tests. This was as late as last week.
The test was taken on the 19th, and it took until the 23rd to get the
results. During the four days, my family member had to self-quarantine
and obviously refrain from going to work.
They weren’t too keen on doing the test for my family member
because they were in short supply.
That’s just six days ago.
It’s obvious they haven’t been doing adequate testing.
what I will look for the beginning of April is what the total number of deaths in Italy in the month of March was.......and then compare that number to February,January,etc....if its not much different than normal, we’ll know they gave false data or at least did not have proper data...
and that’s another thing...did they test for flu when they tested for covid?.....be interesting to know the overlap...
That sounds like a decent idea.
I’m not sure what the situation is with the seasonal flu there
either, or even if this has been a light year for that there.
Todd Herman is filling in for Rush this week, and he seems to
have read or heard something that has him thinking as much as 805
of the numbers being claimed to be deaths from COVID-19, may
be mislabeled.
I don’t know what to make of that frankly.
I’m going to post something else to you in a moment.
It actually addresses how Italy is classifying it’s causes of death,
and I think it is suspect of the fact of it.
We’ll see if you agree.
Here’s a clipping from an article found in the Journal of the
American Medical Association.
Definition of COVID-19–Related Deaths
A second possible explanation for the high Italian case-
fatality rate may be how COVID-19–related deaths are
identified in Italy. Case-fatality statistics in Italy are
based on defining COVID-19–related deaths as those occurring
in patients who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 via RT-PCR,
independently from preexisting diseases that may have caused
death. This method was selected because clear criteria for
the definition of COVID-19–related deaths is not available.
Electing to define death from COVID-19 in this way may have
resulted in an overestimation of the case-fatality rate. A
subsample of 355 patients with COVID-19 who died in Italy
underwent detailed chart review. Among these patients, the
mean age was 79.5 years (SD, 8.1) and 601 (30.0%) were
women. In this sample, 117 patients (30%) had ischemic heart
disease, 126 (35.5%) had diabetes, 72 (20.3%) had active
cancer, 87 (24.5%) had atrial fibrillation, 24 (6.8%) had
dementia, and 34 (9.6%) had a history of stroke. The mean
number of preexisting diseases was 2.7 (SD, 1.6). Overall,
only 3 patients (0.8%) had no diseases, 89 (25.1%) had a
single disease, 91 (25.6%) had 2 diseases, and 172 (48.5%)
had 3 or more underlying diseases. The presence of these
comorbidities might have increased the risk of mortality
independent of COVID-19 infection.
COVID-19–related deaths are not clearly defined in the
international reports available so far, and differences in
definitions of what is or is not a COVID-19–related death
might explain variation in case-fatality rates among
different countries. To better understand the actual causes
of death, the ISS is now reviewing the complete medical
records of all patients with positive RT-PCR results who
have died in Italy.
That seems to be rather problematic to me.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667
Someone in New York state is testing for flu.
In the past two weeks, they had 13,000 new confirmed cases of influenza and 1,700 new hospitalizations.
However, you will never hear about that from any NY officials or the MSM, so, doing your own research is the only option.
Very clever, yet simple, emphasis.
That’s one of the dumber things I’ve seen all week. If a model doesn’t make accurate predictions, what good is it? Why bother?
Someone above commented that Dallas used this info in their shelter in place directive. So it went beyond the media looking for sensationalism.
In a normal flu season there are millions of people who don’t get flu shots and don’t take any special precautions, but who never get the flu. I am one of them. I’m not a hermit. I live and work in a large diverse city.
So many assumptions about the Chinese virus assume that 100% of the population is susceptible to it. We don’t know that.
On a side note, I’d be interested to know Chinese virus infection rates among those who had flu shots vs those who did not.
“I am so tired of the unending Corona Virus articles. Can we declare a on week Corona Virus Sabbatical? If we stopped talking about it we might figure out how overhyped it really is.
“
So, you want me to post more cryptozoology stuff? Lots of posters here give me grief over that.
At yesterday’s Coronavirus presser VP Pence said that 420,000 tests had already been completed. And the number of daily tests is increasing exponentially. Suggest you search for text of that presser.
NY is skewing the results. 40% have tested positive.
And as President trump and his crew keep up the daily briefings, the data will magically start to contract to reality...attention and awareness can defeat mindless panic.
With 500,000 tested we have 68,347 positive cases....it denotes a negative for covid rate of about 87 percent of all tests done. 13 percent are positive and 15 percent of those(the number seems to be consistent everywhere) will need hospitalization. We could do a rough extrapolation that as of about 7 days ago(given an average turn around time of 2-4 days for the tests) 287,100,000 persons, tested and untested, had not contracted the disease across the entire nation.
42,900,000 some of whom will be tested and most of who will never be tested, could be presumed to be positive as of 7 days ago. Some will be silent spreaders, having no symptoms at all until the body rids itself of the virus. Some will have mild symptoms or symptoms that will be the worst long hanging flu of their life but they get over it without hospitalization. 15 percent will get very sick, so they say, but that comes out to 6, 435,000 people. We could not handle that many people crashing the system all at once.
Yet perhaps our mitigation strategies are working...? We have our hotspots and more people are showing up sicker but we should have been seeing many more thousands by now, instead of the spurts and sputters.. Now maybe we still will over the next two weeks...Yes, Perhaps we have flattened the curve....? I have questions. Have we destroyed ourselves?
Some of the previously mentioned 287 million may yet contract the disease and get tested, others of the 42 million will get better on their own and never get tested and we will never know if they had it or not.
This nation will need to learn how to get on even with ongoing disease for after this one, there will be other covids. Staggered closures vs complete shutdowns may have to be explored. Economies can not be suffocated like this and survive to provide jobs and opportunity when pestilence subsides; chaos and civil war, famine and even wider spread death may result.
Piggish personal behaviors and casual sexual excess amongst the population will have to be forced curbed if necessary, if not for morality’s sake, but for the health and welfare of the general population. We may have become more like Singapore than we would have liked, but I’d rather that than the North Korea that the Democrats would prefer.
Can we believe the numbers, now? Will we see the absolute swamping of our health systems? Even in our Hotspots, thus far they seem to have managed the numbers. They say we are week behind Italy yet even being a week behind Italy we aren’t showing the numbers or even have videos of piles of bodies and videos of multiple kids and adults gasping desperately. Yes we know many in the US have gone to the Er’s very sick and some are dying quickly.... still, something seems amiss....
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