Question: How many undiagnosed have gotten it and stayed home until they were better and only had mild to moderate symptoms?
“Question: How many undiagnosed have gotten it and stayed home until they were better and only had mild to moderate symptoms?”
The distribution of case severities has been well determined by exhaustive contact tracing and “controlled” situations like the Diamond Princess. About 80% mild or asymptomatic, 20% serious or critical. About 55% asymptomatic, 25% mild, 15% serious and 5% critical if you want it broken down fully. Some of the less severe cases progress in severity over time rather than always being mild or always being asymptomatic. All of the preceding numbers are +/- to some extent.
However, if you are hoping for some herd of asymptomatic infected out there to dilute the severity and mortality rates, they don’t exist - except in places like NYC, Iran, Wuhan, LA and other places where there is widespread and largely uncontrolled community transmission and they don’t actually know who or how many people have it. You can project the numbers working backwards if you know how many serious cases you have. But they are largely not sharing accurate numbers in any of those places. For some reason.
If there were, hotspots would be popping up all over the US instead of primarily in large, densely populated areas, as asymptomatic individuals can still be contagious.
Question: why base your logic on something you can’t measure?
You can only plan a response on measurables. The data you are looking for won’t even have decent estimates until 2 to 3 years after the fact.
I think this is the most annoying question FluBros ask.
Besides every quote so far says 80% will have mildness. President Trump even says 80%! Yet, flubros KNOW it’s much better, right...
But by far be it from me to have to explain to you grade school math.
Let’s see:
X is the number of people infected in a given instance (not cumulative)
numInfected = x * .70 (who will get it) * .20 (who will be critical)
Now lets look at ICU bed availability. We’ll say 2e5 to be more than fair to the USA health care system. I think the true count is what, 1.5e5? Anyhow, we can push this hard in flubro direction, and still make a point.
Equation is now:
.14x >=2e5
Solving for x...
x >= 2e5/.14
x >= 1,428,571
As soon as in ANY GIVEN INSTANCE x >= 1.43e6, death rate will sky rocket, because health care above the bed count then becomes unavailable. Most of the critical care, then become die at home.
But its actually even worse than that. These critical cases will not be carefully placed where the perfect number of beds are available, and do you really think communities are going to take patients from hot bed communities?
What this means is, it will not take a .70 nationwide infection rate to generate huge death tolls. Infection hot beds will develop, those areas will run out of beds, deaths will snowball.
It just seems to me FluBros are math & logic challenged.
And in one side of their head, completely trusting of the CCP numbers, and in the other, completely distrusts CCP (but numbers still good!).
That said, there is a trade off point, but society will set it, not freepers, not even the President of the United States. When we hit it, we will know, because people will “risk it for the biscuit” anyway. And people in the USA are armed to the teeth (and we should be, it’s a God given right, guaranteed by the Constitution — stupid not to be).
Till then, math dominates Flawed FluBro Logic.