Question: why base your logic on something you can’t measure?
You can only plan a response on measurables. The data you are looking for won’t even have decent estimates until 2 to 3 years after the fact.
I think this is the most annoying question FluBros ask.
Besides every quote so far says 80% will have mildness. President Trump even says 80%! Yet, flubros KNOW it’s much better, right...
But by far be it from me to have to explain to you grade school math.
Let’s see:
X is the number of people infected in a given instance (not cumulative)
numInfected = x * .70 (who will get it) * .20 (who will be critical)
Now lets look at ICU bed availability. We’ll say 2e5 to be more than fair to the USA health care system. I think the true count is what, 1.5e5? Anyhow, we can push this hard in flubro direction, and still make a point.
Equation is now:
.14x >=2e5
Solving for x...
x >= 2e5/.14
x >= 1,428,571
As soon as in ANY GIVEN INSTANCE x >= 1.43e6, death rate will sky rocket, because health care above the bed count then becomes unavailable. Most of the critical care, then become die at home.
But its actually even worse than that. These critical cases will not be carefully placed where the perfect number of beds are available, and do you really think communities are going to take patients from hot bed communities?
What this means is, it will not take a .70 nationwide infection rate to generate huge death tolls. Infection hot beds will develop, those areas will run out of beds, deaths will snowball.
It just seems to me FluBros are math & logic challenged.
And in one side of their head, completely trusting of the CCP numbers, and in the other, completely distrusts CCP (but numbers still good!).
That said, there is a trade off point, but society will set it, not freepers, not even the President of the United States. When we hit it, we will know, because people will “risk it for the biscuit” anyway. And people in the USA are armed to the teeth (and we should be, it’s a God given right, guaranteed by the Constitution — stupid not to be).
Till then, math dominates Flawed FluBro Logic.
I made an error typing in this little window. Math is good, but what I said is wrong.
It only takes .70% of a population of 1.4e6 to become infected to cause major problems and die off.
Remember, we have 3e8 people here in the states, roughly speaking.
IF YOU TRUST ANY NUMBERS FROM CHINA (CCP) - You are an idiot!