Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
Re: the Case Fatality Rate must be much lower
I agree.
Also...
Without the wild card of 37 fatalities in King County (Seattle), the USA CFR would already be below 1 percent today.
On that same note illegal immigration and migration that has overwhelmed the EU is another factor. The denial and unresponsive early action to protect themselves have failed due to what they are being told to do by the powers controlling the EU
True and the question is how to do that?
1. Lockdown retirement homes etc.
no brainer
2. what about older folks at home?
living is a risk: they're more likely to die of FLU.
3. also the problem is that even for the under 60s the death rate is 0.2%
this is BS due to the fact that we have NO IDEA how many unreported cases have gone on to recovery.
Do you think the Dems will let their mouthpieces tell us when the curve flattens?
#3 is far from BS - we have the data from Italy and from Taiwan — Taiwan tests regularly.
There are today ten (10) serious cases in the US. And for that, the world’s largest economy is being shut down. Incomprehensible.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
“And how many Corona virus deaths so far?”
Fewer than 100 in the US, so not so many. Let’s keep it that way.
Letting it run amok like some are suggesting will put it at the top of your irrelevant list.
I’d suspect that the number of daily cases from all 50 states is not being faithfully updated each day by ALL 50 states. IOW’s some of the states are reporting every other day. So the real increase number is probably a more or less steady increase of between 25 & 45 percent. The real quarantines have just gone into effect in most of the nation.
angry elephant wrote:
“Here in Washington state the testing is huge. We are up to 10,000 tested with only 100 per day testing positive.
We were testing 1000 per day with 100 positive and now it is 2500 per day with 100 positive per day testing positive.
To me, that is flattening.”
Thanks!!
Irrelevant information. When your tire has a small leak what happens if you don’t fix it? What happens when a small fire in a dry woods isn’t put out? What happens when MANY small fires in the dry woods aren’t put out?
Most of those in Germany and SK (and most everywhere else) cases have not resolved. It is not logical to assume they will all resolve favorably.
I see you included the German data to dilute the worsening SK numbers. It is still way too early to count those chickens.
Can you please source your smoking rate data for China, as it seems way high compared to what I’ve seen?
The problem in Italy is that the HCS collapsed in Lombardy, not the number of Chinese that may or may not be present. That happened because the Italians didn’t take the situation seriously enough at first, even when other countries were closing borders and banning travel. They have their own set of butflubros. Spain and Germany and France and Austria, the same. In Iran they thought they could stare down and troll the virus. They are reaping the rewards of their ignorance and stupidity.
Countries with massive containment efforts are getting things under control. South Korea seems to have it contained, but they have a backlog of unresolved cases, as I mentioned. Their fatality rate will only go up since their infections are not increasing very much due to widespread testing and contact tracing.
Containment is key. Butflubros are spreaders.
People are starting to realize this is a war that we have to fight. Don’t be the antiwar protester.
Brilliant.
“The curve does not flatten.”
That’s the case if the virus is allowed to run free.
If you attempt to contain it, while you aren’t likely to stop it forever, you slow its spread, making it start over again and again. That’s what flattens the curve. You’ll have more resources to devote to each case, keeping the fatalities lower.
That gives all those arrested exponential growth curves a flatter profile when they are combined.
Flattening the curve does not mean reducing the number of cases so much as spreading them out over a longer time period.
It’s a small thing that can get worse. My first thought but it’s not a great analogy. The many fires in a dry woods is better.
Why do you believe anything out of China? Ever?
I think the country is WAY past the stage of panic and are getting ready to party like there is no tomorrow
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