Posted on 03/15/2020 6:11:15 PM PDT by Randall_S
Through personal conversations, and by listening to statements from politicians (federal, state, local, and international) and media pundits, it is apparent that very few people, if any, are prepared to think through the implications and consequences of what we are facing today. The purpose of this article is to provide some context, insight, and – modestly – foresight into the current crisis created by the coronavirus (aka Covid-19, aka the Wuhan virus).
The next two to three months will be a period that we have to go through all together, and will come out on the other end changed. This applies to us individually as well as to various facets of our society – commercially, politically, culturally, and financially.
Safety First
Let’s start with the obvious: to slow and finally contain the spread of the virus, there is no alternative to total lockdown. We must isolate ourselves as much as practically possible. Although the virus is most lethal in the elderly population (80+), any person regardless of age can contract and transmit the virus. Therefore, people of all ages are equal opportunity vectors. Lockdown measures have been applied in China, Italy, and Spain, and will almost definitely be used throughout Europe and the United States within the next few days.
What does that look like? In Italy, for example, you are not allowed to travel outside your zone unless you have written form permission. The list of exceptions is limited: for example, if you have an elderly relative to visit, if your job requires your physical presence (hospitals, delivery services, supermarkets, pharmacies), or your role in society is essential to keeping order (e.g., law enforcement) or ensuring survival (food and pharmaceutical production and distribution). Police checkpoints enforce the rules; violators are fined, potentially jailed, and (if not jailed) sent back to their zones.
Locking down the United States for a period of two to three months (following the example of China and others) presents a unique set of challenges. Each state will likely implement their own protocols. The specific measures may reach down to the county level, with discretion given to police departments or sheriffs. Specifics will be negotiated, or are more likely already negotiated, between parties at the governmental and corporate level. The United States is leveraging contingency plans we all wish we never had to use. The private sector will play an active role in distribution and planning: Walmart and CVS, and surely others, will serve as distribution points. Google is assisting with the testing website. Insurance companies will pay for the tests, as their contribution to the effort. Pharmaceutical companies are working in concert to develop a vaccine. More on vaccines later.
Logistics become the primary economic challenge. Movement is very limited. Schools and many businesses must temporarily be closed. The National Guard may be used to distribute food and other vital supplies, and to help enforce the rules.
If this sounds Draconian, consider that the last time the United States government took comparable sweeping actions for any extended period of time (for a completely different reason) was during World War II. (The same, incidentally, can be said for Italy, France, U.K., etc.) But given the risk to the whole US, and global, population there is no absolutely reasonable alternative. The implications that result from our almost definite future – lockdown – are sprawling and profound.
The Economy
The stock market is basically a predictive engine. Since concern about the virus has proliferated, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down from an all-time historic high of 29,568 to 23,85 (6,382 points down). That’s a 21.5% economic drop already (from what we once expected). For many investors, especially savers, this probably means a mainly paper loss. But it is useful information because it provides a barometer of what we should expect.
Disruptions in travel and supply chains mean lost opportunities and lost revenues. Business plans for the next 9-12 months will all need to be entirely reevaluated, and many postponed until it is possible to end isolation. Restaurants and other small businesses face a strong threat of bankruptcy. More on the travel industries later.
In Israel, which has a mandatory two-week quarantine for anyone (including citizens) entering the country, the airline El Al has told 75% of their staff to stay home. It is not unreasonable to expect all major airlines to be in a similar position shortly. Eventually, even though these measures are temporary, they have real economic consequences down to the employee and family level. We suspect that two things will occur: the government will make low or no interest loans available, sustaining the majority of businesses through the period. And businesses, with their bottom lines chopped, will use it as a pretext for retiring some “dead wood.” Nice or not, that’s how things often work in the real world today.
Further economic relief will likely come in the form of tax breaks, tax deferments, and, as already announced, elimination of interest on student loans (expect other loans to be added to that list where and when possible). The Fed just cut interest rates to between 0.00-0.25%. They did this in coordination with their international counterparts. What effect will this have on credit card or mortgage debt – of an individual or business – with a 20% or 6% loan? What will be acceptable rates in today’s situation?
All of these government tools, along with the equally complex situation in the financial markets, need to be thought through by officials and their private sector counterparts, and come to an agreement to put in to practice. This all takes time, and no doubt these discussions are ongoing right now.
Once the crisis has ended, our entire approach to pandemics, in the United States and globally, will be (better be) overhauled. The US dependence Chinese on manufacturing for our pharmaceuticals and other critical medical supplies will come into sharp relief, and the American pullback will have further economic consequences, as countries around the world reevaluate their dependence on China. Reverberations will be felt for years, if not decades.
Hopefully, part of our future vigilance will be proactive development of vaccines against particularly virulent virus types. On the hope for a coronavirus vaccine, it is a solution for a future date. Let’s assume that one was discovered today. We would still need to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses, and then deliver those injections to hundreds of millions of people. If we really want to solve the problem, taking into account the global population, we need to inject billions.
So, to reiterate: for our immediate future, the vaccine and talk of one is irrelevant. Let that continue in the background among the experts. Today’s situation will be controlled without a vaccine, i.e. through 0lockdown and self-isolation, or it will not be controlled or solved at all.
Politics and International
Internationally, going forward leaders will have to be ready for pandemic control. The WHO’s broad failure should result in dramatic and lasting changes. Each country will certainly have to rewrite their pandemic playbooks. A few days ago, the European Council President and European Commission President scolded President Trump for not consulting him before enacting the travel ban with Europe. This is unhelpful and unserious: no country should ever ask permission to protect its own people. The ban is for Schengen area due to lack of borders, so it was banned as a whole (including Switzerland).
A word on politicians: Every mayor, governor, president (etc.) is taking advice from their experts in this area. President Trump, for example, is not setting policy based on politics but on scientific advice from the government’s top epidemiologists and infectious disease doctors. CDC, HHS, and their partners are running the show now. The President has to coordinate the entire effort, but in terms of the containing the disease the professional bureaucrats rule the day. Let them, for they know best.
President Trump’s efforts have, at times, felt frustratingly slow. As Americans, we assume that our government had the ability to test all of us in the event of a pandemic. We now know this was not true. They are developing, on the fly, a new system that should have been thought of and implemented 10, 20, or just 3 years ago.
It’s easy to say “we should have been prepared.” Hindsight it always 20/20. Although our response feels bumbling, it is equally true that the knowledge that something like this could happen with a coronavirus has been known to the scientific community for decades. Although this may be the “novel coronavirus,” coronaviruses and their treat to human life is anything but novel. We, as societies, are now exposed as negligent to prevent, detect, and vaccinate against such diseases. Who do we blame for that? The “experts?” Sure. But also get a mirror. (We will, too.)
For Trump’s part, we can only offer this prognosis: he must embrace this challenge, or he will fail to be reelected. From the outset his presidency has never sought to be at war; he has fought to end our foreign military presence across the globe. His focus was always economic and cultural. In this moment, however, we are on a wartime footing and must be prepared to stop the virus. The economy will suffer, obviously, but wartime leaders who guide their people through incredible hardships are, in history, the most beloved ones. (How popular is Calvin Coolidge today compared to FDR?) We believe that President Donald J. Trump has strength, fortitude, and an exceptional, professional team around him to rise to the unforeseen and incredible occasion. It’s a hell of a way to finish a first term, which will decide not only November but also the fate of hundreds of millions, nationally and internationally.
Who assumed THAT?
Someone who lives in NYC and has never been west of the Hudson?
Big country. Very big country. Really very big country. With lots of people.
Does this person think that we stockpile 400 million tests for every virus that may pop up?
There are over 300 deadly viruses out there that we know about and something that is not deadly (coronavirus) can morph into something that IS deadly like the Wuhan-400.
That would be 120 Billion test kits they would need to have in stock. And test kits generally have a short shelf life. Where would they keep them? How would they dispose of the expired ones. Who would....?
Oh never mind.
Just take it as read that no one with more then two brain cells had the stupid delusion that the government could test all of us in event of a pandemic.
The government didn’t take over businesses during WWII.
OK, it’s true - most thinking, logical, and highly alert people did not assume this.
But your average person made this assumption. And many assumed that within 1-2 months our government could gear up properly.
This has proven not exactly true. It has frustrated Fauci and the other professionals. So let’s not pretend it isn’t a legitimate failing.
Verndariinc
Trump Signs Executive Order To Improve Flu Vaccines
President Donald Trump yesterday issued an executive order directing the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to overhaul seasonal flu vaccine production and urge more Americans to be vaccinated.
The executive order, titled “Modernizing Influenza Vaccines in the United States to Promote National Security and Public Health,” promotes new vaccine manufacturing technologies to support more robust vaccines and advances the development of vaccines that provide longer lasting coverage against a broad range of flu viruses.
Weaknesses in current production methods
In the executive order, President Trump emphasized that each year, flu vaccines prevent millions of illnesses and thousands of deaths. It also acknowledged that a deadly flu pandemic could inflict trillions of dollars of damage on the economy.
“Unfortunately, many of the vaccines we use today are produced overseas, using time-consuming, egg-based technology, which limits their effectiveness and makes production too slow to effectively combat a potential deadly influenza pandemic,” the White House said in a statement.
In a related fact sheet, Trump said, “We want a safe and healthy future for every American family.”
Improving flu vaccines and developing universal formulations was part of proposed Senate bill last year that would have invested $1 billion in research over the next 5 years.
Speeding up production, advancing better vaccines
The goals of overhauling flu vaccine production will reduce reliance on time-consuming egg-based vaccine production. Also, the White House said improved production speed could help experts better match vaccines to the most current circulating strains.
For example, earlier this year, World Health Organization (WHO) vaccine advisors delayed their recommendation for the H3N2 vaccine strain by a month, due to rising numbers of genetically and antigenically diverse viruses.
In doing so, it warned that the move could delay flu vaccine production by 2 to 4 weeks.
A more closely matched vaccine is an important part of making the vaccines more effective. Flu vaccines are known to provide moderate protection, at about 54%, though effectiveness varies by year, with performance especially uneven against H3N2 viruses.
Also, the Trump Administration said it will advance the development of new more effective vaccines.
In 2012, a group led by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), which publishes CIDRAP News, led a group that published an in-depth analysis of problems with current flu vaccines and steps needed to develop a game-changing flu vaccine with the potential to blunt the impact of a future pandemic.
The White House said President Trump is establishing a task force to identify priorities and monitor progress.
HHS to take lead
In a separate statement yesterday, HHS Secretary Alex Azar said that under the order, HHS will lead the coordination of efforts to modernize flu vaccine production.
“President Trump’s executive order to modernize influenza vaccine manufacturing reflects his commitment both to America’s national security and to America’s health,” he said.
Tom Inglesby, MD, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, on Twitter today said the executive order was good and strong, requiring a new plan for faster manufacturing, improving public understanding about flu and promoting better coverage, government study of vaccine effectiveness and costs, and a lot more.
“The government didn’t take over businesses during WWII.”
Technically not...but how many cars did we produce between 1942 and 1944? 139. It was clear who was running businesses at that time, and it wasn’t private companies.
right. Very few people are even now thinking in terms of ‘stock up to not leave house for x time.’ much more of the attitude is hurricane prep - wait it out a week, have water, + a few gallons of bleach and lysol.
the ideal is complete independence aside from necessary utilities (as applicable) for many months.
The feds did regulate the production of autos, but they did not run the companies. War production was contracted and industry ran their businesses to meet the needs of the war effort.
Exactly. And multiply that across every company conceivably involved with ‘the war effort.’ I.e., every company imaginable..
For later
Close enough...and the feds won’t be taking over businesses here, but as in WW2, they will in all but name.
They did NOT in all but name no matter how many times you post it!
“They did NOT in all but name no matter how many times you post it!”
How many cars did they build during the war? They did what they were told, as they effectively had a gun pointed at them. That’s history, and if you want to portray it as totally voluntary by the execs, so be it.
. . . like, by 0bama?
I wrote that auto production was halted by order of the feds. Just like the production of bump stocks has been banned by executive order. That doesn’t mean Trump runs those companies that were making them.
Did you know that Studebaker was developing new auto designs during WWII? They were able to do because they contracted design out to Raymond Lowey & Associates, sidestepping government regulation. They had freedom to do so. They were NOT taken over by the feds.
“I wrote that auto production was halted by order of the feds”
Where did you write that?
“But too many do, even among conservatives. It is just that our laws are “better”.”
Our side established the TSA, and very few here genuinely hate it.
Sorry but I or anyone I have spoken to never made the assumption the government would test everybody. The thought is ludicrous.
Post 27:
“ The feds did regulate the production of autos,”
Now, for more facts to educate you:
“ On January 1, 1942, all sales of cars, as well as the delivery of cars to customers who had previously contracted for them, were frozen by the government’s Office of Production Management. As a temporary measure, local rationing boards could issue permits allowing persons who had contracted for cars before January 1st to secure delivery.
Representatives from the auto industry formed the Automotive Council for War Production in April 1942, to facilitate the sharing of resources, expertise, and manpower in defense production contracting.“
https://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/24088
Edsel Ford remained the head of Ford. GM’s William S. Knudsen served as head of U.S. wartime production for President Franklin Roosevelt. Roosevelt didn’t serve on the board of GM.
We need to do something similar with ventilators, and then store the excess ventilators in a warehouse, ready for the next pandemic, because this is going to happen again.
In Italy, for example, you are not allowed to travel outside your zone unless you have written form permission.
I've been following this with a couple of friends who were going to do a wine tour of Tuscany this summer. The folks in Italy they're corresponding with say it's really not too bad if your zone is relatively free of contagion, it's hell if it's otherwise. "It'll probably be OK by then," one of them offered optimistically. I jokingly suggested they opt for a cruise ship instead and they almost slugged me.
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