COVID-19 Update; 3/14/2020. A Message From Concerned Physicians

Howard Luks MD ^

[Robert DeLong]

Now you are starting to be way off on your predictions, but again testing and the length of time to get testing kits made available put the count way behind the reality from what was being reported.

[Pollster1]

The problem for this sort of model is that a single super-spreader or a delay in identifying new cases can trigger what we see in NYC. Flawed data is a common issue, and the only solution is to recognize that limitation.

[cherry]

I know you’re busy but some of us would love some logical fact based info and opinion every day if possible..

[mrsmith]

LOL!
You nut!

Anyway, we can all ‘hope’.

[DoodleBob]

"A month into it, and there’s 10 or 20 dead. Yeah, this is a real pearl harbor. Meanwhile at least 16,000 have died from the flu. This is an over blown, overhyped, media induced, democrat fueled panic."

The point of this backtest isn't to chastise DesertRhino, but to indicated just what's happening.

Here we are, a week later, and the JH website shows 340 bodies on the US cart, with confirmed cases rising from 3,499 on the 15th to 26,747 as of this morning. True, that's a relatively low body count...more people probably died of boredom last year, and more people were probably confirmed NeverTrumper's last year.

But it does show the velocity of the Coronavirus' spread. In contrast, I don't think we'll see a 17-fold increase in boredom deaths in 2020 (and yes, I know I didn't extrapolate the weekly increase into a yearly increase).

If I saw 10 or 20 dead flies in my home one week, and then next week it looked like the Amityville Horror, I'd take action. Now, is this worth nuking the home/vaporizing the restaurant and related service economies, and leaving waitresses and bartenders to live in Hoovervilles? That's a related discussion that I'll leave for a separate thread. But you get the point.

[Disestablishmentarian]

Okay ... my naive analysis shows that the U.S. total cases through today, and starting with the first day on doodlebob's table, are exponential. Each day is modeled by the previous day raised to the 1.03666228209419 power.

Actual  ^1.036662282
2717	 2717
3478	 3,631 
4645	 4,904 
6362	 6,696 
7769	 9,249 
13680	 12,926 
19285	 18,290 
26747	 26,211 
???	 38,060 

(Guesstimating 38,000 for today based upon partial day's data)

[DoodleBob]

We're at 32,644 now. You're better than I am!

That said, and at the risk of sounding like a sore loser, I'm really questioning what's happening in NYS. 1,706 was their count five days ago, and as of now they're at 15,777. True, it's a large state of about 11MM people, but they're looking like Italy.

[gas_dr]

Willl post an update tonight

[Disestablishmentarian]

We're at 32,644 now. You're better than I am!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Obviously this "Naive" exponential pattern needs to break in the next few days or we will be exceeding China very soon, against all logic ... (unless they had an undisclosed vaccine before the release, or their data is totally falsified--both of which are possibilities IMO).

I still think your equation will provide a usable description of the "Bell curve" once we are able to get it calibrated.

[DoodleBob]

Well, this is largely futile. But I have included the US Confirmed Cases without the NY totals, which is closer to the Hubei-driven forecast.

Date	Forecast Cases: Hubei Pattern	Forecast Percent Growth	Actual Cases	Actual Cases excl NY	% Daily Growth in Actual Cases	% Daily Growth in Actual Cases excl NY	% diff: Actual-Forecast Cases	Logistic Forecast: 1/(1+exp(-( -3.2392+0.1988*day of the epidemic)))*41500	% diff: Actual-Logistic Forecast Cases
3/14/20	2,999	38.0%	2717	2202	25%	25%	-9%	3,315	-18%
3/15/20	3,552	18.4%	3478	2767	28%	26%	-2%	3,974	-12%
3/16/20	4,376	23.2%	4645	3665	34%	32%	6%	4,748	-2%
3/17/20	6,837	56.3%	6362	4715	37%	29%	-7%	5,650	13%
3/18/20	8,271	21.0%	7769	5288	22%	12%	-6%	6,693	16%
3/19/20	10,202	23.3%	13680	8312	76%	57%	34%	7,885	73%
3/20/20	12,029	17.9%	19285	10790	41%	30%	60%	9,233	109%
3/21/20	13,526	12.4%	24493	13779	27%	28%	81%	10,739	128%
3/22/20	15,264	12.8%	33276	17483	36%	27%	118%	12,395	168%
3/23/20	16,577	8.6%	.		.	.	.	14,189	.
3/24/20	18,125	9.3%	.		.	.	.	16,099	.
3/25/20	19,408	7.1%	.		.	.	.	18,096	.
3/26/20	20,410	5.2%	.		.	.	.	20,144	.
3/27/20	20,410	0.0%	.		.	.	.	22,204	.
3/28/20	29,488	44.5%	.		.	.	.	24,236	.
3/29/20	33,280	12.9%	.		.	.	.	26,201	.
3/30/20	34,408	3.4%	.		.	.	.	28,066	.
3/31/20	35,590	3.4%	.		.	.	.	29,806	.
4/1/20	36,696	3.1%	.		.	.	.	31,401	.
4/2/20	37,731	2.8%	.		.	.	.	32,842	.
4/3/20	37,945	0.6%	.		.	.	.	34,125	.
4/4/20	38,196	0.7%	.		.	.	.	35,255	.
4/5/20	38,331	0.4%	.		.	.	.	36,238	.
4/6/20	39,201	2.3%	.		.	.	.	37,086	.
4/7/20	39,201	0.0%	.		.	.	.	37,811	.
4/8/20	39,325	0.3%	.		.	.	.	38,427	.
4/9/20	39,630	0.8%	.		.	.	.	38,947	.
4/10/20	39,875	0.6%	.		.	.	.	39,384	.
4/11/20	40,125	0.6%	.		.	.	.	39,749	.
4/12/20	40,320	0.5%	.		.	.	.	40,054	.
4/13/20	40,579	0.6%	.		.	.	.	40,307	.
4/14/20	40,927	0.9%	.		.	.	.	40,517	.
4/15/20	41,047	0.3%	.		.	.	.	40,691	.

[DoodleBob]

Well, this is largely futile. But I have included the US Confirmed Cases without the NY totals, which is closer to the Hubei-driven forecast.

Date	Forecast Cases: Hubei Pattern	Forecast Percent Growth	Actual Cases	Actual Cases excl NY	% Daily Growth in Actual Cases	% Daily Growth in Actual Cases excl NY	% diff: Actual-Forecast Cases	Logistic Forecast: 1/(1+exp(-( -3.2392+0.1988*day of the epidemic)))*41500	% diff: Actual-Logistic Forecast Cases
3/14/20	2,999	38.0%	2717	2202	25%	25%	-9%	3,315	-18%
3/15/20	3,552	18.4%	3478	2767	28%	26%	-2%	3,974	-12%
3/16/20	4,376	23.2%	4645	3665	34%	32%	6%	4,748	-2%
3/17/20	6,837	56.3%	6362	4715	37%	29%	-7%	5,650	13%
3/18/20	8,271	21.0%	7769	5288	22%	12%	-6%	6,693	16%
3/19/20	10,202	23.3%	13680	8312	76%	57%	34%	7,885	73%
3/20/20	12,029	17.9%	19285	10790	41%	30%	60%	9,233	109%
3/21/20	13,526	12.4%	24493	13779	27%	28%	81%	10,739	128%
3/22/20	15,264	12.8%	33276	17483	36%	27%	118%	12,395	168%
3/23/20	16,577	8.6%	.		.	.	.	14,189	.
3/24/20	18,125	9.3%	.		.	.	.	16,099	.
3/25/20	19,408	7.1%	.		.	.	.	18,096	.
3/26/20	20,410	5.2%	.		.	.	.	20,144	.
3/27/20	20,410	0.0%	.		.	.	.	22,204	.
3/28/20	29,488	44.5%	.		.	.	.	24,236	.
3/29/20	33,280	12.9%	.		.	.	.	26,201	.
3/30/20	34,408	3.4%	.		.	.	.	28,066	.
3/31/20	35,590	3.4%	.		.	.	.	29,806	.
4/1/20	36,696	3.1%	.		.	.	.	31,401	.
4/2/20	37,731	2.8%	.		.	.	.	32,842	.
4/3/20	37,945	0.6%	.		.	.	.	34,125	.
4/4/20	38,196	0.7%	.		.	.	.	35,255	.
4/5/20	38,331	0.4%	.		.	.	.	36,238	.
4/6/20	39,201	2.3%	.		.	.	.	37,086	.
4/7/20	39,201	0.0%	.		.	.	.	37,811	.
4/8/20	39,325	0.3%	.		.	.	.	38,427	.
4/9/20	39,630	0.8%	.		.	.	.	38,947	.
4/10/20	39,875	0.6%	.		.	.	.	39,384	.
4/11/20	40,125	0.6%	.		.	.	.	39,749	.
4/12/20	40,320	0.5%	.		.	.	.	40,054	.
4/13/20	40,579	0.6%	.		.	.	.	40,307	.
4/14/20	40,927	0.9%	.		.	.	.	40,517	.
4/15/20	41,047	0.3%	.		.	.	.	40,691	.

[null and void]

Keep in mind we’ve expected a spike in the number of confirmed cases because we’re finally started mass screening.

[Disestablishmentarian]

I am anxiously waiting for my modified exponential model to
completely FAIL (i.e., overshoot the actuals), showing the
"Bell curve" of new cases is starting to bend over.

Tomorrow is projected to show about 65,000 cases in U.S. by end of day.

Date    	Actual Cases	Day-weighted Exponential Forecast
3/14/2020	 2,717  	 2,717 
3/15/2020	 3,478  	 3,691 
3/16/2020	 4,645  	 5,034 
3/17/2020	 6,362   	 6,887 
3/18/2020	 7,769  	 9,448 
3/19/2020	 13,680 	 12,991 
3/20/2020	 19,285 	 17,892 
3/21/2020	 26,747 	 24,669 
3/22/2020	 35,225 	 34,030 
3/23/2020	 46,332 	 46,936 
3/24/2020	 ???        	 64,686 
3/25/2020	 .            	 89,019 
3/26/2020	 .         	 122,243 
3/27/2020	 .           	 167,392 
3/28/2020	 .           	 228,404 
3/29/2020	 .           	 310,326 
3/30/2020	 .             	 419,530 
3/31/2020	 .          	 563,925 

Incidentally, the main reason I'm playing around with this
is to detect the FAILURE (aka "Catastrophe") in the model
which I expect will be followed by a gigantic stock 
market rally, especially if it happens in the next few 
days ... allowing Trump to name a date-certain for 
returning to a semblance of normal business.