Study released today: Coronavirus 4.8% Mortality Rate

Medrxiv.org ^ | Medrxiv.org

[BusterDog]

4.8% fatality rate.

Analysis of 50,404 patients

“According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

[palmer]

Then you tell me a better method for calculating the real numbers that China is hiding, and probably doesn't even know. There was no official spike of deaths at that point - 4-500 deaths spread over a month or two when the quarantines started. Sure, a bunch of sick people filling up the hospitals isn't good, but it's not something China, of all places, would shut down a major industrial city, cancel Lunar New Year (one of the biggest holidays in China), and shut down the capitol city, for.

We don't have a good method for calculating mortality in China. But we can't just ignore non-hospitalized cases. Those numbers are probably not in the recoveries. Then there are an unknown number of undiagnosed cases. Could be hundreds, thousamds, tens of thousands, etc We simply don't know. Finally we can't trust the Chinese death numbers or the explanation.

If there were thousands of cremations a day in the province instead of the expected 1300 per winter day, that would be significant. But I have not seen a good analysis of that, just speculation.

Finally, the situation is serious. China would not kill their own economy if it wasn't serious. I am just looking for well-founded estimates and will gladly point out analytical flaws or rampant speculation which is counterproductive.

[jdsteel]

Maybe tomorrow!

[Svartalfiar]

Drivel. You are using a completely speculative death rate based on an anonymous internet source, and ignoring all the recovery cases that were not hospitalized.

As I said in another post to maybe you, there are no good numbers coming out of China. Sure, any fatality rate for ANY disease is going to miss recoveries from resistant/immune. But, for most societies, those numbers should be minimal as most people will at least visit a doctor and get confirmed. Especially with a virus whose symptoms are as bad as this one sounds to be.

And given that it's China, we're also missing the tons of deaths that weren't tested, so were not attributed to the virus. As well as all the people who died at home, I doubt they're included in the Chinese numbers. I would bet the farm (if I had one) that China has more non-official deaths than they do recoveries not reported.


We'll start seeing more realistic numbers now that cases are growing outside of China, but many of those numbers are too low to have any statistical significance. Iran has 15 deaths out of ninety-five, that's 16%. Philippines had 1 out of 3, 33%. Italy, 7 out of 287, 2.4%. Taiwan, one of of 30, 3.3%. (Note these numbers are I believe cases, not recoveries, so all these rates could go higher even with no new infections.) China is the only one with sufficient cases to actually pull decent stats out, but it's China and the numbers can't be trusted at all. And if they actually admit to a 10% fatality rate so far, how much higher could it actually be?

[Svartalfiar]

Finally, the situation is serious. China would not kill their own economy if it wasn't serious. I am just looking for well-founded estimates and will gladly point out analytical flaws or rampant speculation which is counterproductive.

Except rampant speculation is all one can really do with the Chinese numbers.

And I've mentioned your above arguments in other threads before, that immune/resistant people generally don't go to the doctor, and hence are not included. CFR is actually lower than it is.

People who died from other causes, who would have died from the virus. CFR is actually higher than the official one.

In China people aren't tested cause there aren't test kits, or they already died, so deaths are recorded as whatever else. CFR is much higher than the official number.

Misdiagnoses because of lack of proper facilities. Affects CFR both ways, but likely mostly for recoveries. Probably lower than the official number.

Chinese men tend to smoke a lot more than most others, making them more susceptible / weaker fighting it. Chinese CFR is higher than it will be worldwide.

Chinese cities has terrible pollution. ANY sickness will be more fatal than it would be elsewhere. Wordly CFR is lower than the Chinese number.

Supposedly Asian/Han males have more lung receptors for this particular virus. This'll make the Chinese CFR a little to much higher than the worldy rate. So the overall CFR is lower.



As I said in my other reply, to get a true CFR, we need a wider sample pool, and subtract the entire Chinese numbers, as they can't be trusted at all. But that wider pool is currently such small numbers, any outliers greatly swing the CFR one way or the other. Need time and more infections to really get it somewhat accurate. All we can really say for sure is that the current fatality rate has a minimum based on the official Chinese numbers, which is currently 8.8%.

[palmer]

8.8% and dropping. Look at the Johns Hopkins chart. Recoveries are rising at a rising rate. Fatalities are rising at slowing rate. We are obviously not going to see 8% as the final ratio.

[lepton]

The CDC has to tell people to stock up on 2 weeks of food (and water), because much of the country - especially in cities - only keeps 2-3 days worth of food on hand.

[lepton]

The official-est numbers as coming from Johns Hopkins only has 30M cases resolved (27600 recoveries and 2700 deaths).

---

That’s 30k, not 30M

[Svartalfiar]

The official-est numbers as coming from Johns Hopkins only has 30M cases resolved (27600 recoveries and 2700 deaths). That’s 30k, not 30M

30k and 30M are the 'same' thing. 'k' is a metric unit prefix notation for kilo-, and as such is not properly used to denote a thousands multiplyer. However, a lot of people use it that way. 'M' is the proper way to denote thousands when writing numbers. Roots coming from Roman numerals, so M is a thousand, and MM will denote millions.

[Svartalfiar]

8.8% and dropping. Look at the Johns Hopkins chart. Recoveries are rising at a rising rate. Fatalities are rising at slowing rate. We are obviously not going to see 8% as the final ratio.

True, but we're gonna see a final Chinese ratio of whatever China decides it should be. Which is useless information, really. As of yesterday, the non-Chinese fatality rate was at 15% (including Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which tilt the number lower as of yet). So China's numbers are guaranteed to be at least twice what China claims. Probably higher.

[bert]

The media salivation on the body count is irrelevant.

In the overall scheme of things more people die from all sort of causes than the corona virus.

[lepton]

Using Roman numerals, MM = 2000.

That said, I understand. You’re using the symbols in an intermediate archaic sense.

[lepton]

By then you could compare the dead/resolved outside of China. The dead were very low initially, but since have have been growing rapidly compared to recovered - even excluding Iran as a country that probably has no idea what it actually has.

[lepton]

I see you came up with roughly the same numbers I did while excluding Iran, Hong Kong and Singapore.

[BusterDog]

Oh goodness, you are confused. No media at this link.

[palmer]

As of yesterday, the non-Chinese fatality rate was at 15%

As of the hearing today, the non-China fatality rate is about 0.5% according to House witness testimony.

[palmer]

The dead were very low initially, but since have have been growing rapidly compared to recovered

That was also true in China. Remember the days with dead > recovered? Those are long gone now. Recovered is growing exponentially. Dead is rising slowly.

Of course it's China (via Johns Hopkins) so take it with a grain of salt. But there is volatility in the mortality and recovery at the initial stages which will resolve in a few weeks.

[Fledermaus]

Oooh, a study.

[Fledermaus]

Yep, buy!

[miserare]

Smokers get sick faster, and many do not recover.

China has many smokers, and virtually all Italians smoke.

I am very worried about my granddaughter and her husband in Italy.

They live in the North ...Turin. She works in Milan. He works in a Turin hospital.

Both are smokers and have been smoking a pack a day for twenty years.

[miserare]

Turn the pangolin inside out.