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Then you tell me a better method for calculating the real numbers that China is hiding, and probably doesn't even know. There was no official spike of deaths at that point - 4-500 deaths spread over a month or two when the quarantines started. Sure, a bunch of sick people filling up the hospitals isn't good, but it's not something China, of all places, would shut down a major industrial city, cancel Lunar New Year (one of the biggest holidays in China), and shut down the capitol city, for.

We don't have a good method for calculating mortality in China. But we can't just ignore non-hospitalized cases. Those numbers are probably not in the recoveries. Then there are an unknown number of undiagnosed cases. Could be hundreds, thousamds, tens of thousands, etc We simply don't know. Finally we can't trust the Chinese death numbers or the explanation.

If there were thousands of cremations a day in the province instead of the expected 1300 per winter day, that would be significant. But I have not seen a good analysis of that, just speculation.

Finally, the situation is serious. China would not kill their own economy if it wasn't serious. I am just looking for well-founded estimates and will gladly point out analytical flaws or rampant speculation which is counterproductive.

Except rampant speculation is all one can really do with the Chinese numbers.

And I've mentioned your above arguments in other threads before, that immune/resistant people generally don't go to the doctor, and hence are not included. CFR is actually lower than it is.

People who died from other causes, who would have died from the virus. CFR is actually higher than the official one.

In China people aren't tested cause there aren't test kits, or they already died, so deaths are recorded as whatever else. CFR is much higher than the official number.

Misdiagnoses because of lack of proper facilities. Affects CFR both ways, but likely mostly for recoveries. Probably lower than the official number.

Chinese men tend to smoke a lot more than most others, making them more susceptible / weaker fighting it. Chinese CFR is higher than it will be worldwide.

Chinese cities has terrible pollution. ANY sickness will be more fatal than it would be elsewhere. Wordly CFR is lower than the Chinese number.

Supposedly Asian/Han males have more lung receptors for this particular virus. This'll make the Chinese CFR a little to much higher than the worldy rate. So the overall CFR is lower.

As I said in my other reply, to get a true CFR, we need a wider sample pool, and subtract the entire Chinese numbers, as they can't be trusted at all. But that wider pool is currently such small numbers, any outliers greatly swing the CFR one way or the other. Need time and more infections to really get it somewhat accurate. All we can really say for sure is that the current fatality rate has a minimum based on the official Chinese numbers, which is currently 8.8%.