Posted on 02/16/2020 9:15:58 PM PST by Bon mots
What is your risk to get infected coronavirus?
East Asians, Japanese, and Han Chinese are the most likely people to become severely sick by the coronavirus with a chance of more than 90% when exposed. Europeans only rank in the 50%, Africans in the 60% range, and considered low to medium. It also makes a difference if one is a smoker or non-smoker.
The Travel and Tourism industry is in turmoil. Tourism leaders don’t want anyone to panic, but the story doesn’t yet have an end to it.
At the same time, researchers are working around the clock to learn more about the deadly virus. Recent studies may explain why Europe, America had no deadly cases of the virus, and no coronavirus cases at all were reported from Africa.
Stopping travel may not be the solution and could only mean travel businesses could become collateral damage in the fight against coronavirus. The World Health Organization always said “do not stop travel and commerce.”, even after WHO declared a global epidemic emergency.
Why is this?
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December of 2019.
This new coronavirus has resulted in thousands of cases of lethal disease in China, with additional patients being identified in a rapidly growing number internationally.
2019-nCov was reported to share the same receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), with SARS-Cov.
Here based on the public database and the state-of-the-art single-cell RNA-Seq technique, the ACE2 RNA expression profile in the normal human lungs. The result indicates that the ACE2 virus receptor expression is concentrated in a small population of type II alveolar cells (AT2).
Surprisingly, studies found that this population of ACE2-expressing AT2 also highly expressed many other genes that positively regulating viral reproduction and transmission.
A comparison between eight individual samples demonstrated that the Asian male one has an extremely large number of ACE2-expressing cells in the lung. This is based on an unfinished study by Yu Zhao, Zixian Zhao, Yujia Wang, Yueqing Zhou, Yu Ma, Wei Zuo and published by Bio Rxiv:
A second study investigates how and why the virus will enter the human body, by Michael Letko, Vincent Munster
Apparently the coronavirus enters a human body through some connection with something called the ACE2 receptor. East Asians and men have more than say white Europeans and women. Being a white woman seems to be the way to have much lesser risk.
According to this study and based on the assumption in this study and in regards to the receptor, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, human populations where samples were available were categorized by risk in obtaining a dangerous version of the virus. Most ill may not feel more than a common cold, for others Coronavirus can be fatal.
According to this preliminary study the risk of obtaining the virus:
High risk 90%-99%
Japanese in Tokyo, Japan
Southern Han Chinese
Kinh in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Han Chinese in Bejing, China
Chinese Dai in Xishuangbanna, China
Moderate Risk: 80-89%
Not found
Medium to Moderate Risk: 70-79%
Peruvians from Lima, Peru
Bengali from Bangladesh
Sri Lankan Tamil from the UK
Indian Telgu from the UK
Mexican Ancestry from Los Angeles, USA
South Asians (general average)
Medium Risk: 60-69%
Gujarati Indians from Houston, TX
Admixed Americans
Americans of African Ancestry in SW USA
Punjabi from Lahore, Pakistan
African Caribbeans in Barbados
Luhya in Webuye, Kenya
Mende in Sierra Leona
Africans (general average)
Esan in Nigeria
British in U.K.
Gambians in Western Division in The Gambia
Puerto Ricans
Low to Medium Risk: 50-59%
Colombians from Medellin
Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria
Finnish in Finland
Iberian Population in Spain
Europeans (in General)
Utah Residence (Caucasians)
Toscani, Italy
I want to see more studies that are based on more complete data. I am not convinced this is more than reversed-engineered statistics from the small statistical universe we currently have.
But I suppose this is progress of some sort. Taking with a grain of salt, for the moment, the “incomplete study” and so on and so forth, at least there is now some basis for the people that say Asians are more susceptible to hang their hats on.
But even this does not explain the lack of reports from Africa and Central America. I’m sticking with “nobody really knows what’s happening there” until I see otherwise. On a positive note, I did hear Africa at least mentioned with regard to the Wuhanic Plague today. Somebody is thinking about it, at least.
“Well, I did a DNA analysis via 23andMe and it is amazing how precise they can be with geography.”
That must have been a better one than my wife did. They pretty much had western Europe shaded in blue. “Well I knew that!”
My grandparents were all born in small towns in Norway. And we already had those roots traced back 500 years. All the roots stayed in the same valleys/fjiords.
Great question.
No slave raids to bring DNA from western Europe to those fjords?
Missing from the data: Arabs
My grandfather had olive skin, black eyes and jet black hair. My dad thought that he was the result of some beautiful slave woman from the Mediterranian.
Then he went over and met relatives on that side of the family. Sami people from northern Norway. “Yeah - they all looked like your grandpa!”
Antihistamine effect of supplemental ascorbic acid and neutrophil chemotaxis.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1578094
Of course our charts only go back 500 years, and the Vikings were before that. My sister had her $50 DNA done and it showed northern Europe.
Hmm - I wonder if that Chinese guy that is creating that company to link on-line photos with people’s information will be buying out those DNA companies?
Nice to have roots.
The tech to design a virus that uses dna to identify a target exists. This is China getting rid of the aged and sick.
This is by design. Called it the first week. But we were told we are all going to die again.. just like swine flu, bird flu and sars. Seeing a pattern here?
Hey - thanks for all of these pings on the virus and keeping us so up-to-date. I found some well-educated guy on youtube just now, I want to listen to information about the virus as I do some organizing and can keep my hands free.
After skimming his 16 half-hour episodes, including the one from today I gave up. Here at FR (with your help) we are at least two days ahead of his advice. (He has the current numbers, just a bit slow on the comments. Today he is talking about the importance of sleep, which we talked about a day or two ago.)
From what I understand, the Spanish Flu (and by extension the new A-H1N1 variant) kills by provoking an immune system hyper-response, sometimes called the “Cytokine Storm” which severely damages the lungs and causes Acute Respiratory Distress (ARD) resulting in oxygen deprivation to the internal organs.
Here is an over the counter (OTC) formula that inhibits some of the major inflammatory mediators, and is now being suggested as a way to stave off ARD. All four factors must be included.
1a) A prescription ACE-2 inhibitor anti-hypertension drug. (Note: Healthy folks w/normal BP would experience a crash in BP, fainting, et al. Those already on other types of BP lowering meds would experience the same.) -or- 1b) If unavailable, 15,000 IU of Vitamin D* (Note: 15,000 IU is a huge dose of Vitamin D, a fat soluble vitamin. This means excess Vitamin D is stored in the liver, rather being excreted. The half life of Vitamin D is roughly three weeks, and Vitamin D toxicity can cause serious problems)In addition, it is also recommended to maintain just the MDAR of Vitamin A. Being short of Vitamin A is associated with having an excess of a very powerful inflammatory mediator called TNF-1. But it is easy to take too much Vitamin A, which is toxic. High doses of the provitamin Beta-carotene, which the body converts to Vitamin A, might work as well as straight Vitamin A, and are much less toxic.2) Histamine-1 blocker. Benedryl or the equivalent.
3) Histamine-2 blocker. Tagamet or the equivalent (normally used to block acid reflux.)
4) Ibuprofen. Advil or the equivalent, a prostaglandin blocker.
Care should be taken to avoid “health foods” that can artificially enhance the immune system, something to be avoided when there is the prospect of ARD.
This was extracted from an earlier thread I've lost track of, with some comments on Vitamin D from NautiNurse, and on ACE-2 inhibitors from reformedliberal added, and a flat out guess on Beta Carotene from me...
...These days I'd lots of Vitamin C
On the topic of Gujarti Indians, this strikes up an interesting conversation.
Originally, their ‘clan’ region was western India and a fair amount of Pakistan. This ethnic group is known for three significant things...they are as being industrialist, extreme-capitalist, and push their kids hard on achievements and education.
The other interesting factor is that they don’t stay in India/Pakistan...they move out into the world. Any western country that thrives on commerce and capitalism...this group moves in (Australia, the UK, Canada, the US, and New Zealand).
Another factor is that the family unit will pressure the son or daughter to move within the ethnic group. It will be extremely rare to have a non ethnic marriage. So the DNA lines...stay extremely ‘pure’.
On Houston? I know there are a lot of this particular ethnic group in New York City and New Jersey. My humble guess is that Houston has attracted a number of families over the past forty years (maybe in the oil business), and the risk factor (due to the DNA side) is higher than normal people.
Finally, just a humble observation....while absolutely no evidence to suggest it....it just seems like some idiot or lab group was messing around with something in a controlled situation, and it had serious negative relations to a particular DNA group. What is bothersome now....if this is true, then this act to develop a flu-shot would present some issues.
I would suggest leaving the Bay Area if your wife is immunocompromised, for obvious reasons.
“Why does it give location as well then? Gujarti Indians aren’t indigenous to Houston Texas.”
And what a about a hypothetical Gujarti Indian who moved from NY City to Houston last year? Should they move back to NY City to be safe from the virus? If they do, are they putting their lives at risk due to other factors under Delblasio.
I’m just glad I’m not a Gujarti Indian in Houston...my life would be a wreck now.
“Dunno. How many 7-11s can a city have?”
I KNEW IT!!! You’re Joe Biden.
My wife is Asian also, also with a weak immune system. We’ve taken a few initial steps to try to stay clear of this monster. First, we killed off a trip back there this spring...way too hot with that virus. She now stays clear of Asian groups (so that would include church). When she wants to go to Asian supermarkets, we get there early morning on weekdays, before the crowds show up. Similar with other stores (why not, if you’re able to get off from work, much more pleasant to shop at those times). And, needless to say, we now stay clear of Asian restaurants.
It’s all playing the odds and hoping 2 things, that we stay clear of people who have been there recently (and are much more likely to be infected than the general public) and if we do come across infected people, we try to minimize our contact time and the number of those we do come across.
Not to be “racists”, but Motel 6s also.
I find that anytime I check into a budget model I can usually practice the little Gujarati that I speak.
Europeans (in General)
White privilege.
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