Coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

The Harvard Gazette ^ | 02.11.20 | Alvin Powell

[Freedom56v2]

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.

Q&A Marc Lipsitch

GAZETTE: We spoke about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak about a week and a half ago. What do we know now that we didn’t know then?

LIPSITCH: We know that the spread is even greater than it was then. It was likely then that it would spread more widely, but there was still hope for containment. I think now that it’s in more countries — even Singapore, which is really good at tracing cases, has found some cases that aren’t linked to previous known cases — it’s clear that there are probably many cases in countries where we haven’t yet found them. This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.

GAZETTE: You indicated that the rapid increase in cases was largely due to existing cases that hadn’t been diagnosed rather than new infections. Is that still your sense, or is some of the daily increase in cases due to new transmission?

[null and void]

add this one to it...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3815799/posts?page=27#27

[laplata]

Thanks.

[Fury]

Time will tell. We are weeks away from knowing where this is going.

Thanks for this comment. I think there is some merit to reading and doing research on this topic, and being able to get (for a lack of a better term), an informed "feel", if the number of casualties is accurate (you mention this on a previous thread).

[dangus]

It’s true ... and noteworthy ... that the number of “serious” cases is lagging. It had declined from 22% of all cases down to 14%, but is now up to 21% again.

So what if we presume that the number of serious cases SHOULD have remained at only 14% of all cases? For that to happen, we’d have to increase the number of total cases by 50%. That’s a lot of people... but even if that were true, there’d still be only 3,000 cases, which is still a decline even in raw numbers.

So the Chinese announce that they’re now testing seemingly healthy people... and then announce that they will no longer count seemingly healthy people who test positive as a “current case.” Is that necessarily throwing off the stats? NO! These are people who wouldn’t’ve been tested in the early phases of the disease! What’s more, AFAIK, testing positive only means that you’ve HAD the virus. (I don’t know if they’re using a more advanced test, but usually that’s how “testing positive” works.)

[dangus]

Also, if it takes a week for a case to become serious, should we be surprised if the number of serious cases lags by a week?

[Freedom56v2]

Curious Did you actually read any of the article, or are you reacting to the headline?

From the actions of the Chinese government over the past 2 weeks and the fact that it is now in multiple countries and qualifies as a pandemic, this is not typical flu. Frankly, I don’t want to contract ANY flu!!

My Daughter* had the H1N1 was set to be quarantined first semester of school...Upon learning this, I jumped in car—picked her up at midnight and brought her home to self quarantine...So I take these things seriously.

I hope you are correct, however, unless you are a PhD epidemiologist infection control expert, I am proceeding on the side of caution...

Sorry, I don’t think it is ridiculous...which is why I posted it.

*As an aside, the daughter who had H1N1 is now doing graduate work in infectious disease/infection control. I will take her concerns seriously too.

[Freedom56v2]

Frankly, I hate thought of contracting any flu and take precautions.

I was fairly casual about the coronavirus initially, but it is the draconian actions of the Chinese Government that really have given me cause for concern.

Watch Agenda Free TV on YouTube for coverage. The guy used to be w/Right Side Broadcasting. He does not wear tin foil and covers the issues thoroughly.

BTW, I believe the Chinese are under reporting the numbers due to their economy and stock markets...

[Vermont Lt]

All valid points.

I think we need to look for the pause/plateau/decline in growth in China, followed by decline in fatalities in a couple of days.

I think we continue to see a growth in deaths for the next week. This is mostly because of the growth in critical/serious cases.

If there is going to be huge breakouts outside of China, we should start seeing that movement in the next few days. I am not counting stuff on the ship.

[momincombatboots]

The credentials for the scientist claiming the Himalayas would melt by 2020 were impeccable as well.
I have a ltiny bit of schooling in virology. I know how vaccines are made.. etc. Lessons learned from the “carts of dead” during swine flu, bird flu & SARS.

A terrified populace is a well controlled populace. Look at the US.. Those who bow the knee to “free” govt healthcare will pull the dem lever if there is even a hint of true healthcare reform. That includes plenty of “conservatives”.

I also understand if China or anyone else wanted to design a virus that targets an ethnic group via genetics. They can.
Remember the hyper-virulization programs to create “better vaccines”.
We have a saying in the infectious disease world. Shut the lab door”... Unless of course you blew the walls out for a reason.
Until I see the numbers of 20 somethings with zero co- morbidities.. I am thinking this is the way the democrats, socialists and communist get rid of a burdensome set of people. Reading a lot of deaths about older folks.
Heck, that is any “flu”.

[Former Proud Canadian]

"Apparently there is no vaccine or treatment to protect your own people."

They were just working on that very thing...then this happened.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I don’t think anybody in the US has died from this stuff. You have a better chance of being abducted by Bigfoot. Worry about something that is likely to happen.

[Freedom56v2]

NO there have been no deaths...yet. Is it likely to happen?
Who knows! Can you trust China numbers? Can you trust WHO and CDC numbers?

I don’t understand the push-back from some here against others wanting to follow the story and be prepared. Am I up all night worrying? No I am prepared for this and pretty much whatever else comes my way.

Ridiculous? Perhaps...However, today I read of 2 major conferences have been cancelled due to concern...major money lost:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/mwc-mobile-world-congress-canceled-amid-coronavirus-fears.html
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/major-summit-on-eve-of-singapore-airshow-canceled-on-coronavirus-fears

At this point in time, the US health infrastructure can handle the small number of cases and quarantines. Also, the virus is new and likely has not mutated significantly.

But I have watched video on Twitter and Agenda Free News on You Tube highlighting the draconian measures being implemented by the Chinese government—today they are now stating they can/will confiscate personal property in order to prevent what some are saying is no more virulent than regular flu. Oh and they marched the residents of an entire apartment complex out of the building and took them who knows where... I watch what Chinese do as opposed to accepting what they say...

You may find it ridiculous, but I am keeping my preps updated. I believe in motto: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

But then I live by 2 major airports with reported cases and a high Asian population, my state is starting local coronavirus testing, and I think I mentioned that my daughter flagged to be put in isolation/quarantine with H1N1 during her first semester at her university...many here poo-poo’ed that virus...her school did not.

Nothing to see here...Eh maybe I will go Bigfoot hunting ;)

[Freedom56v2]

FYI: New numbers reported today:

BIG News....Agenda Free TV You Tube Stream reporting:

Hubei Province changed the protocols for reporting...

14,840 new cases in Hubei Province today...(with 13,332 of them in Wuhan) and 242 deaths in Hubei...

Total Reported so far...60,000 now (based on new reporting protocols) cases 1357 deaths

As per:

Agenda Free News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bi9ihln5OE

Steve Lookner: https://twitter.com/lookner

Louis Dobbs on Fox Business News program tonight

BNO News:

TWITTER https://twitter.com/BNONews
website;https://bnonews.com/

CNBC: Eunice Yoon https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv

[redgolum]

SO either the new production of testing kits have hit the field.
OR real numbers are so high that any chance of down playing this is gone.

This bug is here, in the US. Expect hints of it starting soon. Question is how it will affect a population with western standards of hygiene and air pollution that doesn’t smoke as much.