Posted on 02/11/2020 10:50:10 PM PST by Freedom56v2
The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.
Q&A Marc Lipsitch
GAZETTE: We spoke about the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak about a week and a half ago. What do we know now that we didn’t know then?
LIPSITCH: We know that the spread is even greater than it was then. It was likely then that it would spread more widely, but there was still hope for containment. I think now that it’s in more countries — even Singapore, which is really good at tracing cases, has found some cases that aren’t linked to previous known cases — it’s clear that there are probably many cases in countries where we haven’t yet found them. This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.
GAZETTE: You indicated that the rapid increase in cases was largely due to existing cases that hadn’t been diagnosed rather than new infections. Is that still your sense, or is some of the daily increase in cases due to new transmission?
(Excerpt) Read more at news.harvard.edu ...
LOL...
His facts may or may not be correct, but there is no excuse for such sloppy writing. If the author of this article will be so sloppy in what should be his area of expertise, then how can we trust anything he says when representing another area off expertise? Professionalism is valued for a reason.
Some folks need to perpetrate the bad news to have coat tails to ride while they last.
So much contradictory info out there now that we know less for sure than during the first 2 weeks.
Terrifies me is how bad the CHINESE numbers say the mortality rate is.
Look at the last column of the table DoughtyOne posted at #16, that's the numbers you get from the fudged Chinese data, the numbers they released to save face, bolster their economy, and minimize the panic.
People have to make estimates because hospitals and healthcare workers have to prepare and they need to know what they are dealing with. There is a big difference if your ER is going to have 30 cases a week or 300 a day, will the hospital need tents? Outside triage? Should all of these cases be directed to away from the main hospitals to one set up just for this, like the bases the pentagon set up. How it spreads is important because it determines whether people will wear gowns vs. level 4 suits.
So many folks on FR, esp the daily live thread are finding as much news as eyes on the ground reports (and the news and what little research that is coming out is supporting many the video clips that people risked their lives to get out there)
So anyway, I’d rather have to guess and be over prepared than wait and see, and be overrun.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related
Hmm well I look at lawyers very differently from scientists, but then my whole family has STEM degrees...
This is interesting link good find...This is what Pompeo and others have been talking about...Chinese luring our best and brightest to work for them...and against us.
Their Level 4 lab is in Wuhan...Any dots to connect?
So what does this guy know that we don’t?
The epidemiologist did not write the article...It was a Q&A with the scientist...
Yes, the question is whether the guy who wrote the article reported the information accurately.
Wow, that DOJ piece is astonishing! That news has not been widely broadcast.
“Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT. In return, Lieber was obligated to work for WUT “not less than nine months a year” by “declaring international cooperation projects, cultivating young teachers and Ph.D. students, organizing international conference[s], applying for patents and publishing articles in the name of” WUT.”
Those are HUGE sums he was paid.
His grad student was arrested at the airport carrying ten vials.
This and the Winnipeg incident are an unnerving trend.
OR until there is nobody left to catch it. ;o)
>> OR until there is nobody left to catch it. ;o) <<
At which time it will be completely eradicated. That’s an important consideration when looking at microbes: non-harmful is more successful than harmful.
I was shamed for talking about projections only using two weeks of information. I am not doing that here.
What I will say is that our set of numbers is small, and suspect. There is not much predictable information out there yet.
The other point, which you and I know is that the numbers we do have, suck.
My final point is the the CCP changed their definition of a “case” right about the time we started seeing a lag.
The critical and serious numbers continue to climb every day.
What I am looking for on my chart is a dip, reflecting the new definition and then it starts to climb again.
Time will tell. We are weeks away from knowing where this is going.
***with a death toll of more than 1,000.***
Still has a long way to go to match the common flu deaths in the USA. 80,000 this year.
This is ridiculous. Flu season will be over in another month or two. In a month from now it wont even be in the news cycle.
Most viruses mutate weaker not stronger.
He sounds completely reasonable to me, and his credentials are impeccable for an infectious disease epidemiologist. I’m curious about what makes you think otherwise.
That figures. Thanks.
Good post.
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