Posted on 02/03/2020 2:12:38 PM PST by janetjanet998
There are currently 19,843 confirmed cases worldwide, including 426 fatalities
“Not fearful.
Just watchful.”
I know exactly what you are saying. :)
But this is pretty heavy stuff and this came to my mind for encouragement. Isaiah 41:10
Ya.
It’s like playing dodgeball. Just watch for the ball.
You care and that goes a long way.
China has kick-started a clinical trial to speedily test a drug for the novel coronavirus infection as the nation rushes therapies for those afflicted and scours for vaccines to protect the rest.
Remdesivir, a new antiviral drug by Gilead Sciences Inc. aimed at infectious diseases such Ebola and SARS, will be tested by a medical team from Beijing-based China-Japan Friendship Hospital for efficacy in treating the deadly new strain of coronavirus, a hospital spokeswoman told Bloomberg News Monday.
https://time.com/5776682/coronavirus-drug/
(today is Feb 3 so the US flight might be a spur-of-the-moment flight like the last one). Also, Australia finally got a Qantas flight of 72 out and plan 3 more rescue flights.
“The U.S. Department of State is working on staging additional evacuation flights for U.S. citizens on a reimbursable basis, leaving Wuhan Tianhe Intl Airport on or about Feb 3. Individuals subject to CDC screening and a strong possibility of quarantine.”
Let’s hope they have enough for the rest of us too if we need it.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Good site!
if you only consider dead and recovered, it’s 39.5%.
If you consider dead, sick and recovered the dead, it’s 2.1%.
For sure.
Hong Kong reports first coronavirus death: Local media
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-hong-kong-death-china-infection-toll-12388372#.Xjjc1q56eOk.twitter
yes. March Field UPDATE:
Everybody was very relieved” about the quarantine order, McCoy said by telephone. We wanted to make sure all the tests were done first.
At the military base about 60 miles (97 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, the evacuees are staying in hotel-style housing and have spent time walking and exercising, some wearing masks, said Jose Arballo Jr., a spokesman for the county’s public health agency.
As of Friday, none of the evacuees had shown signs of illness, he said. The CDC said test results are still coming in for the group; all have been negative so far.
more here:
https://apnews.com/4c2e04ef113497607ff8e9302fac6a5d
Thank you from saving me the need to post that!
Did you mean to say “people that died AS OF today...”? I believe that would be more accurate.
However, consider this: “X” cannot be accurately determined if there are still a lot of patients out there PAST “x” whose cases have not resolved.
For example, back on 1/25/2020, 9 days ago, there were (by “Proust’s” chart), 2117 cases. Yet today we have 421 total deaths and 621 recoveries @ 8 pm EST per the Johns Hopkins tally, which just updated, for a total of 1047 resolved cases — but that total also includes some cases that resolved for people not yet tested by 1/25/20. Say, someone got sick & got tested on 1/26, and died today.
This means that of the confirmed cases on 1/25, a conservative estimate of still unresolved cases would be 1100. I think that figure is low, but even 1100 unresolved cases from 1/25 is over half the total confirmed cases for that day! Possibly some guesstimates could be made for how these unresolved-as-of-today cases will resolve or will be found to have resolved, but, if some are patients with serious secondary problems, relapses, and so on, that take time to develop, the fatality rate will increase. If caregivers are overwhelmed, so much the worse.
Since only the numerator of the fatalities “fraction” can increase, the % of fatalities for confirmed cases can only increase.
Of course the Chinese might fudge the numbers, particularly the denominator, I’d guess. But there are negatives and potential negatives in doing so.
More important, IMO, is that NONE of the above tells us what % of the population is likely to become a confirmed case. The rate of increase in confirmed cases may be a clue, and it seems to be moderating slightly, perhaps reflecting the Chinese efforts at control, but it is too early to tell.
It APPEARS we have:
Higher contagion than large scale flu’s of the last several years.
Higher fatality rate per confirmed case than said flu’s.
The Chinese are willing to significantly damage their economy in their “unprecedented” efforts at control - success of which is uncertain. (I don’t know how many people die from flu each year in China, but if 2019-nCoV does not exceed that number, perhaps they will have been successful - at a high economic cost.)
BREAKING: Hong Kong confirms first coronavirus death
Ditto
Was just about to post about the first Hong Kong/coronavirus death.
FoxBiz also reporting.
Hong Kong confirms first death, a 39-year-old patient who went to #Wuhan days before the lockdown. He returned to Hong Kong by high-speed train on Jan 23, started developing muscle pain in Jan 29 and was hospitalised on Jan 31.
https://twitter.com/stuartlauscmp/status/1224522504741384192
When the Marines returned, the FA-18 jets and helicopters replaced them. Far more noise vs the Navy F-14 and Top Gun school. It stopped being fun. My son joined the USMC just as we moved to Idaho. After serving in Iraq, he returned home and moved to Idaho as well.
Clarification:
“Since only the numerator of the fatalities fraction FOR A PAST DAY can increase, the % of fatalities for confirmed cases FOR A PAST DAY can only increase.”
:-)
Yes, as of. Thanks for catching that.
Yes, it would help if we had an average duration of sickness. If you run the low end or the high end, the CFR is still higher than 2.2%
39 years old.
Please thank your son for his service. It is greatly appreciated.
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