Posted on 09/02/2019 5:57:02 AM PDT by entropy12
Dorian has nearly stalled over Grand Bahama this morning, and is barely drifting northwestward, a horrifying situation for the island. In a game of inches, the fact that this has occurred over the eastern half of the island instead of the western half might be good news for Florida, though this guarantees nothing.
The one major computer model that was still showing a direct Florida landfall (HWRF) has trended offshore overnight, which is also good news. Other models like ECMWF and GFS trended closer to the coast (40-50 miles offshore), which would still be a dangerous track.
The storm is also beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which while typically accompanied by a decrease in max winds, also results in a broadening of the wind field, making it more likely to impact Florida even if the eye is offshore.
Again, nothing is guaranteed. Tiny wobbles in the storm track could have vast consequences. Be vigilant, and be prepared just in case the worst happens.
(Excerpt) Read more at tropicaltidbits.com ...
One of the animations on that site shows a bit of change to northwest direction in the last hour and a half
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL052019/13/GOES16-AL052019-13-1000x1000.gif
Thanks for the link!!
That animation is from midnight I think, hopefully Dorian has begun tracking more north, oh so slowly! It is barely moving at 1 mph, and pummeling the Bahama’s continuously with rain and 145 mph wind gusts...just horrible!
I can't imagine (literally can't imagine) what this cat 5 must be like stalled on an island with nowhere to go.
Absolutely unimaginable! The flood water level is upto the ceiling on most ramshackle homes I saw on video. Add 100+ mph wind which has blown away roofs and windows...
Mike and this site is way better and has more info. Mike is *live* most of the time and has everything in one place: https://spaghettimodels.com
Today’s path of the hurricane is extremely critical. Few degrees west or east is going to make huge difference on how badly coastal Florida will be affected.
Right now the animation ends at 13.10Z.
13:10 “Z” time is 9:10 eastern daylight savings time according to this NOAA chart
https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYtime.php
Just think what it would have been like if it was Hurricane Mrs. Howell or Marianne.
Yep. That site and the NautiNurse thread here are the ticket. These two links are really about all you need.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3775110/posts
I was here during hurricane Mathews 3 years ago, and it was very bad then in terms of flooding and debris covered streets. This one could be even worse. I am not in evacuation zone, so just gonna stick it out. Have plenty of supplies on hand.
that mike guy has aggregated some good info, but drives a truck for a living (or something equally non-meteorological). he isn’t qualified to speak to storm tracks, and shouldn’t.
Levi Cowan, however, is a meteorology PhD student at FSU.
Levi Cowan does a very good job of explaining the hurricane, better than the Weather Channel IMO.
I totally agree re Levi.
Weather Channel is a bunch of drama queens.
Bump for later.
So because mike drives a truck for a living you just dismiss him? You have zero clue as to what his education level is or how he’s spent his life. However, you’re totes onboard with the college educated being the end all be all voice of truth. Got it
“Hey everyone! Mike is a lowly truck driver! Silence his voice!”
Forgive me if that is not what you meant, but that is how your post reads.
The cause is high pressure to the north and to the west.
One result could be dissapation more or less in place. Another could be a shift southward.
“Levi Cowan, however, is a meteorology PhD student at FSU.”
Oh look, a highly educated idiot.
Higher education turns out many like that.
Just because you sat through class and got the degree is no guarantee of intelligence.
Examples:
BO
aOc
John VC Kerry
the guys is caught up in the size of his innerwebz radar blip. be sure and go to a truck driver for that appendectomy.
spend two minutes experiencing the two before you spout off.
. . . And there is a difference between hard science and crap majors.
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