Posted on 08/17/2019 5:25:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
My late father was a lifelong steelworker at J&L Steel’s famed Aliquippa works. Growing up in Western Pennsylvania, I was witness to politicians of every stripe too easily accepting the death of the American steel industry, and manufacturing in general. We were told that it was simply the way of the world in the 21st century for American industry to ship jobs off to China and other countries with fewer labor rights, weaker environmental regulations and practically no concept of “human rights.”
The most enthusiastic supporters of this “new normal” told us not to worry, assuring us that we wouldn’t miss those jobs — the backbone of our middle class for a century — once we got all those cheap, foreign-made goods. It didn’t matter that we strangled our own coal and steel industries with unworkable regulations, the globalists insisted, because we could just import goods from far-flung places.
The underlying message was that there was no point in fighting back and that American industrial decline was irreversible.
Enter Donald Trump. As I campaigned with the president in 2016, I couldn’t help but notice his critics looking down their noses at his promise to bring the American manufacturing sector back to life.
(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...
This book was convincing in 1988 when it was first published. It's taken 30 years to get a President who agreed.
I live in a rust-belt state. I have NOT seen any manufacturing or heavy industry come back to my neck of the woods. The factory lots are still empty.
But there are now help-wanted signs on stores, restaurants, etc. I’ve never seen that before. So I suppose we’re moving in the right direction.
I salute Trump for his efforts on behalf of American industry.
On the other hand, we have to face the blunt fact that industrial employment peaked in 1979 (about 20 million).
Today, we employ 12.8 million, and we produce twice as much value in 2019 ($4.3 trillion) as we did in 1979 ($2.3 trillion - inflation adjusted).
Industrial jobs face the same fate as farm jobs - every decade, the number will slowly, but steadily, go down.
In 1900, half the people in America lived on farms.
In 2019, we feed ourselves and export huge amounts of food, but less than 2% of our work force is engaged in farming.
I heard Rush mention on his show this past week that by next year the US will be a net exporter of oil. We’re no longer at the mercy of the Middle East for our energy needs, and that certainly has to be one of the biggest reasons for our economic boom.
U.S. Steel was trading for roughly $35 per share the day Trump was elected. Is is roughly $12 per share now with an EPS of 2!
Trump handed them a golden opportunity and they shat upon it.
Agriculture will be almost completely automated in ten years.
Which state?
It’s a start, but there’s still a L O N G way to go.
Should the need arise, I seriously doubt we could match the gearing up done in 1942-44.
The Bethlehem Steel plant at Sparrows Point in Baltimore employed 30,000 people at its peak. Compare that to the state-of-the-art steel mill in Calvert, Alabama — jointly owned by ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel. That plant can produce something like six times the volume of Sparrows Point at its peak, with a total staff of fewer than 1,700 workers.
> it was the age and obsolescence of the factories and the changes in supply chains for raw materials <
Some truth there. But America no longer makes the basics. TV sets, shoes, tools, clothing...those things are now all made overseas. And the kid in the inner city, he can’t find a decent job to save his life. Something is very wrong with that.
We are actually currently in a technical manufacturing recession. Industrial production in the Manufacturing sector declined in 1Q19 and 2Q19 and again in July.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN
Transportation is also seeing serious declines in volumes.
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index
We are not in a manufacturing recession. Recession implies negative growth for two straight quarters, not declining production lol.
Since Trump entered the scene, Manufacturing jobs are way up...a massive turnaround. The trend is up, despite the rest of the world being in or near recession - and an incompetent Fed raising rates.
I agree - and “Vertical Farming,” growing completely inside a climate controlled multi-floor building, 12 months a year, will have become a proven and profitable new business model.
This couldn’t have come at a better time, given the loss of jobs in retail as stores close.
>>>We are not in a manufacturing recession. Recession implies negative growth for two straight quarters, not declining production lol.
Take a look at the chart. There was negative growth in 1Q19 and 2Q19. The consumer is doing great right now, but the producer sector is weakening.
I saw that back when the small trucks started showing up and started taking the market away from Detroit. They complained about "unfair trade", so Congress put a $500 tariff on all small truckss. Detroit immediately jacked up the price of their cars $500. When one Congressman asked what the hell they were doing, they replied "remaining competitive".
Sounds like you have read "Freedom's Forge", or something like it.
Need a shipyard to build Liberty ships in San Francisco Bay? Kaiser filed a request and a few months later they were driving piles in the mud for the shipways. Those people worked miracles of production.
Today, even with a war that allowed time, with all the regs, it would take years.
I believe you are incorrect and looking at month to month declines in manufacturing (for example...if growth was 5% one quarter and 2.5% the next quarter that would still be a 2.5% growth in manufacturing...not -.5%.
Here is a quote from the link you provided..., “as a year-over-year percent change, the level of manufacturing has generally grown. (One striking exception is during the recent recession.”
here is a simpler way to prove my point that we are NOT in a manufacturing recession...and actually manufacturing is going quite well.
A chart from your link
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-growing-even-when-manufacturing-jobs-are-not/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
**You will see that we are nowhere near 0 or negative Manufacturing growth...(look for the Zero mid line for perspective.
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