Posted on 07/13/2019 7:42:39 AM PDT by madprof98
Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.
Let’s say the shy Trump voters are worth a five-point swing in favor of Trump compared to the most recent numbers in key states. In a matchup against Joe Biden, Trump would still lose Michigan, lose Pennsylvania, and lose Wisconsin, as well as losing the national popular vote by a slightly larger margin than in 2016. If Biden won those three states, and kept Hillary Clinton’s states, he’s at 278 electoral votes and Trump would be a one-term president.
If you’re wondering about the other likely swing states, with a five point swing, Trump would still win Ohio. The limited number of polls in Florida range from a tie to nine point lead for Biden, and North Carolina has an even wider range. Iowa would probably be close.
All of this is when the economy is rocking and rolling; there’s no guarantee that the economy will be doing as well in 15 months. To feel good about Trump’s odds in those states, you must assume his shy supporters are worth a swing of 8 to 10 percentage points from the current numbers.
The “shy Trump voter” effect probably varies from state to state. The point is, in most of the big battleground states, Trump doesn’t need to do slightly better than his current poll numbers. He needs to do way better than his current poll numbers, even when you give him a generous assessment of hidden support that isn’t showing up in opinion surveys but will in show up polling places.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
The future of the Republic has come down to a numbers game.
The numbers of ill informed and purposely ignorant Voters, not to mention the vast Illegal Invader Voter Fraud issue will undo what our Foreign Enemies were unable to despite their Military Might.
Like I always say, if the Illegal Invaders crossing our Southern Border Voted Republican instead of Democrat, you would be able to see the Bill Clinton Southern Border Wall from Space.
A majority of votes is not necessarily a majority of the eligible voters who turn out at the polls. Many more fraudulent votes and ineligible voters will turn out this time than in 2016 and 2018, the opposition is getting their game together.
There are still HUNDREDS of counties where the number of voters greatly exceeds the number of eligible voters in those precincts.
And there seems to be little incentive to clean up these voter lists. The graveyard vote and multiple-registration votes are still there, plus all the “motor-voter” enrollments of persons actually ineligible to vote.
Most states are decided before the campaigns even start.
Of the rest, Trump surprised in 2016 by winning a small number of states unexpectedly (to the pollsters and his opponent, at least).
In those states his poll numbers today are worse than they were in 2016, and he won them only narrowly back then.
So winning again is a question of either doing better than he is now in those states, or finding other close states he can win instead.
The Dems haven’t even chosen their candidate yet, and once they do, that person’s “negatives” will rise, helping Trump.
In case you hadn't noticed, Donald Trump is president, and Hillary Clinton is not. Yet even on election night nearly all of the polls and the talking heads were saying Hillary Clinton would win. In some instances they said with 98% odds of winning.
I encourage you to watch this compilation of "expert" opinion regarding the 2016 election.
“The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Says a “poll” believer!
I’m coining a new term today, right here on FR.
“Pollers”. People who believe in the irrational and undeniable belief in polls. (pollerism).
“Polarization” When you get a majority of people to believe in “pollerism.”
“... but will in show up polling places.”
You MORON. You do this for a living! Ever hear of “proof reading”?
You are right. Trump voters will certainly “show up” those polling places. We’ll “show em’!
As to the content ... You MORON!
agree...
The economy is doing great things.
Just look at the fast food places where nearly every one has young black kids working the windows. I am in a medium size city in the upper Midwest. They are all very polite and have great smiles as they perform their duties.
This is an obvious result of Trump’s great economy. The unemployment numbers for blacks in America is at an all-time low. It makes me very happy to see this.
I fully expect Trump will pickup 5-10% more votes among the black population in 2020.
Pretty sure the polls said that Trump would have a hard time even qualifying to be on the primary ballots in many states at this time in 2015.
Now the National Review is worried about possible matchups in the general and how it might affect ‘battleground states’?
I’d call that a win.
Loads of employers offering jobs right now, worries from the retail industry that they’ll be massively short staffed come the holidays (and already hiring with the promise of a job through January at the least), no new random wars, liberals promising to take people’s money and give it to illegals and deadbeats?
Yeah, terribly worried for Trump’s chances in gaining re-election. NOT.
In those states his poll numbers today are worse than they were in 2016,...
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I’m in WI. Milwaukee & Madison are the D strongholds and for certain there was fraud in 2018 in Milwaukee.
Last Spring, WI had a judicial election. Polls and pundits declared the prog candidate a winner. While it was close, the conservative candidate won. It was a ‘shocking BOMBSHELL’ result!
Anecdote, not data, but then, so are the prog polls.
This has to stop biden has the same chance of being the nominee that i have
People lie. Saying that you’re a Trump supporter is very un-PC and can unleash hell on yourself in some situations.
We narrowly avoided a complete leftwing takeover. We should stamp them out while they’re weak.
Vote! Do not be complacent.
Look at the popularity of Nixon and how it sank after Watergate. Now granted, the country was not as brainwashed then as now, but 5% would be a huge number and guarantee Trump's reelection.
Maybe the whole Barr thing is timed for the election... maybe... but would sure like to see something.
Anyone who thinks Biden will get the nod or has the energy for the campaign, I have some vacation land on Europa that I am willing to let go for a really good price.
I still think National Review is the best read anywhere on most issues. Regarding Trump, National Review...at least the print version...has been, with a couple of exceptions, as anti-American as AOC. There has been a tiny bit of common sense showing at the fringe. Thevertheless, NR still manages to get little digs, even in rare pro Trump snippets. A little help from putative conservatives should not be too much to ask.
The millions of us “broken glass” Trump voters are never polled.
If anywhere has greater than 100% voter turnout, then the votes should automatically be dismissed as it is OBVIOUS vote fraud.
If they invalidated those counts, that would help.
Then I suppose, they’d just be careful to get 100% voter turn out, unlikely as that is in communities of more than a couple dozen people.
It really depends on how Trump campaigns and who the Democrats put forth. I got tired of the begging so I blocked his campaign texts and flagged their emails at junk. That said, I donate on my own time table and if the election were held today I'd vote to reelect Trump.
I think we should be worried, and it is not only possible but likely that we are going to lose. We’re not considering young voters, women who think President Trump is mean, and illegal voting. I can see how any Democrat would win, especially with Democrats now controlling Rust Belt areas. If you are really concerned about it, now is the time to do something about it. Make sure if you go to church that you are discussing politics, that you are sharing articles, and you are finding people who are not registered to vote. Every person who goes to your church should be registered to vote. Stop recreation and start getting active so people know and understand the conservative view. The Democrats are angry, mobilized, and prepared. 2020 is not a lock.
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