Most states are decided before the campaigns even start.
Of the rest, Trump surprised in 2016 by winning a small number of states unexpectedly (to the pollsters and his opponent, at least).
In those states his poll numbers today are worse than they were in 2016, and he won them only narrowly back then.
So winning again is a question of either doing better than he is now in those states, or finding other close states he can win instead.
The Dems haven’t even chosen their candidate yet, and once they do, that person’s “negatives” will rise, helping Trump.
In those states his poll numbers today are worse than they were in 2016,...
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I’m in WI. Milwaukee & Madison are the D strongholds and for certain there was fraud in 2018 in Milwaukee.
Last Spring, WI had a judicial election. Polls and pundits declared the prog candidate a winner. While it was close, the conservative candidate won. It was a ‘shocking BOMBSHELL’ result!
Anecdote, not data, but then, so are the prog polls.