Posted on 07/13/2019 7:42:39 AM PDT by madprof98
Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.
Let’s say the shy Trump voters are worth a five-point swing in favor of Trump compared to the most recent numbers in key states. In a matchup against Joe Biden, Trump would still lose Michigan, lose Pennsylvania, and lose Wisconsin, as well as losing the national popular vote by a slightly larger margin than in 2016. If Biden won those three states, and kept Hillary Clinton’s states, he’s at 278 electoral votes and Trump would be a one-term president.
If you’re wondering about the other likely swing states, with a five point swing, Trump would still win Ohio. The limited number of polls in Florida range from a tie to nine point lead for Biden, and North Carolina has an even wider range. Iowa would probably be close.
All of this is when the economy is rocking and rolling; there’s no guarantee that the economy will be doing as well in 15 months. To feel good about Trump’s odds in those states, you must assume his shy supporters are worth a swing of 8 to 10 percentage points from the current numbers.
The “shy Trump voter” effect probably varies from state to state. The point is, in most of the big battleground states, Trump doesn’t need to do slightly better than his current poll numbers. He needs to do way better than his current poll numbers, even when you give him a generous assessment of hidden support that isn’t showing up in opinion surveys but will in show up polling places.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
‘For our sake,we should always assume that we are behind and short of support.’
looking at some of the posts on this thread, I find that cautious sentiment in short supply...
Exactly.
Yawn, where’s my coffee?
>>>His answer: ‘Yes, but at what cost to the environment and the world?<<<
Here is a two word response that will guarantee a Liberal “friend” becoming a Liberal Ex Friend, “please explain”.
‘Look at 2016. The “shy Trump voter” swing was a heck of a lot more than 5 points.’
corroborating info, please...
‘He lost track of the fat Americans cannot seem to do arithmetic.’
is that you, James Joyce...?
This article demonstrates the fear of the left and never Trumpers have that a landslide is coming FOR the President.
The Clinton’s were booed at a Billy Joel concert last night... in NYC! If that can happen, then I think Trump is going to do just fine in 2020.
Yup. The days of anything but knee jerk nonsense on FR ended some time ago. Now all you get is conformity from incompetent commentators. The idea of an original thought escapes them.
Horizontal Harris will be the Nominee. Anyone questioning her qualification as an NBC will be put into Birther quarantine.
The only question is, who will her Running Mate be?
Biden will be put out to pasture along with Bernie.
Yeah, well, my days of trying to listen to a lib’s twisted reasoning are about at an end. He carries around pamphlets to hand out that are full of pseudo science ‘facts’ on global warming.
Usually, I say one or two things and just get out of the conversation, with the understanding that no minds will be changed on either side today.
They elected Barry Obummer, TWICE. Does that answer your question? Scares the crap outta me.
Is it conceivable that enough people in battle ground states who voted for Trump in 2016 are turned off enough by him that they won't bother showing up in 2020?
As for the “corroboration” when pre-election polls say he has a 1% or less chance of winning and he wins by a pretty good margin a simple analysis of the facts provides the answer.
I meant “fact” Americans cannot do arithmetic. Again, analyses of how Americans “depend” on their tax “refund” as an windfall is all you need kow about Americans’ inability to manage their payroll tax deductions.
Talking about the old days when you are a noob is above your pay grade. This site has been right when everyone else was wrong. Look at the polls internals if they show them yiu will see oversampling of ds.
They are masters at election hijinx, and they will have had four years to prepare. I am fully expecting to see 110 % voter turnout in certain urban precincts, in swing states.
That’s it. He needs to drop out.
Clutch your pearls if it makes u feel better.
The shy Trump voters amounted to 2 points in 2016. More in some states, less in others.
Let’s not pick rosy numbers out of the air.
“Even When Accounting for ‘Shy Trump Voters,’ the President Needs His Numbers to Improve”
what do you suggest that he do, jim? pander? start one-upping the Dem demagogues by offering even more free shite than they are?
Only morons assume a persons latest screendate is their oldest.
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