Professor who has correctly predicted 9 presidential elections says Trump will win...

The Hill ^ | May 30, 2019 | Marina Pitofsky

[yoe]

...in 2020 unless Democrats impeach.

[snip]Allan Lichtman, a political historian, said Democrats only have a shot at the White House if they begin impeachment proceedings against Trump, calling the decision both “constitutionally” and “politically” right in the wake of special counsel (Robert Mueller’s) investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right. Impeachment is also politically right,” Lichtman told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday.

[yoe]

[relee]

Correctly predicted 9 of how many, 45?

[Menehune56]

Prof. Lichtman’s run of nine correct election predictions may soon be coming to an end if the democrats take his advice and impeach President Donald J. Trump.

[equaviator]

Not only will he win, he’ll win it fair and square!

[proust]

Winning coin tosses is not a skill, not does it make him an oracle.

[Harpotoo]

Trump wins either way!

[SunkenCiv]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3752748/posts?page=22#22

[cuban leaf]

The problem is there is not enough data to make this empirical.

I’ve seen a roulette wheel come up red 18 times in a row.

[faithhopecharity]

impeachment will destroy the D party

totally, awesomely. the American public will never elect them to any jobs higher than dogcatcher

[arthurus]

He does not take into the order-of-magnitude vote fraud increase that will occur in 2020. The near transparency of the chicanery in 16 and 18 was the SocialDemocrats testing the system. They now know for certain that there is no penalty or even official noticing of the fraud. The big SocDem controlled cities in states that have them will produce thin-air majorities for their states. That should put them way over the top in the EC votes and will not be challenged by the fatalistic Republicans and even if Trump challenges the outcome it will be too late.

[Theodore R.]

You must have a lot more faith in “the common man” than I do.

[rjsimmon]

impeachment will destroy the D party

This has been prognasticated every time a Republican takes office. Democrats are worse than cockroaches. You simply cannot eradicate them without massive amounts of fire.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

You are more likely to be busted for selling "loosey" cigarettes than throwing an election through fraud.

How many elections have been decided because the Democrats "found" a box of uncounted votes in the trunk of a car or in the janitor's closet? Why is it that "found" votes never break 50/50 but always favor Democrats?

Why is it that everyone with half a brain has noticed this pattern, that is everyone but law enforcement and public officials who are perennially blind to this fraud? And why is the Republican Party so limp d***ed about fighting it?
 

[faithhopecharity]

hi!
your point is undestood.
actually, i do NOT have more faith in the ‘common man’
than you probably do

rather, all of our D friends (including most of the commie crazy types)... all are sick and tired of all the lies and impeachment talk

they say that this is destroying the government
and
also, that they expected their D-majority House of Reps to work with the administration TO GET SOME OF THE THINGS THEY WANT AND KNOW THAT PDJT MIGHT AGREE TO (infrastructure is big item, also some social policies since he’s not entirely a social conservative all the time...plus some education things they wanted and so forth... ALL DOWN THE DRAIN for the Ds, or mostly so anyway, due to all this crazy impeachment talk and lies , slanders against Trump

[poconopundit]

Ok, I analyzed Mr. Lichtman's formula during the 2016 campaign and posted a vanity on it.

I have done the same below, and it predicts a strong 2020 showing for Trump.

According to the Election Prediction Model, the 13 Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party.  The winner is determined as follows:

The incumbent party wins when: Five or fewer statements are false
The challenging party wins when: Six or more statements are false.

So here's my own scoring of Lichtman's model.  Please refute me if you disagree with my True/False answers:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S.  House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. 

   False, the Republican Party lost House seats in the 2018 mid-terms. 
   

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 

   True, Trump is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination. 
   

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 

   True, Trump is the sitting President incumbent. 
   

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

   True, maybe Bill Weld will run again, but Never Trumpers are weaker than they were in 2016. 
   

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

   True, we are not currently in recession.
   

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

   True, Trump's economy has done much better than Obama's.
   

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

   True, Trump has initiated major changes in regulations, foreign policy, trade policy, taxes, Veteran Affairs, Prison Reform, law enforcement, the Wall, and many others.
   

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

   True, although the country is ideologically divided, there is very little violent social unrest.
   

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

   True, the Mueller investigation after a two year investigation.
   

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    True.  No failures. .
    

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    True.  Major successes in defeating ISIS, quelling North Korea, and protecting Israel and Arab states from Iran.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    True.  Trump is the poster boy for charisma. Fans all over the world.
    

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    False.  We will assume that Bernie or Biden are heroes to other Communists and Socialists.
    

[Reily]

I see

A. Only one False:
- 1. Party Mandate (GOP lost midterm),

B. Three undecided:
- 5. Short term economy (That could change!),
- 11. Military Success (I see no well publicized success: Victory over ISIS still obscure to most people, North Korea also a wash for most people!),
- 13. Challenger charisma: (That could change! But I can’t imagine how!).

[V K Lee]

The professor, an escapee from Fractured Fairy Tales?
Remember his face from years ago (when he appeared on FNC often).
He knows little more than WTP.
We are searching for keys to unlock the doors.
This man; still hoping to find Poindexter.

Donald J Trump will win this election, not because this pointed head scholar said as much,
but because he has walked through fires to arrive at this time in history.
How can any believe him and yet fail to agree with Kim Clement when he said the same back in 2014?

The reason POTUS Trump was elected:
to bring down the rabid, radical, Socialist party.
He has done a superb job in that regard, and continues to work to complete the task.

[Liz]

Nice take.

[Arm_Bears]

Trump will lose as he has demonstrated that he is not serious about securing the border and stopping the flow of illegals into the US.

Flame away.

[GOPJ]

I saw the picture of Hillary and the ‘angry’ cat... Wonderful - totally inspired. Hats off to you pundit..