Posted on 02/13/2019 1:21:37 PM PST by Red Badger
A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving the state due to the sky-high cost of living, with sentiment highest among millennials, according to a new study.
Fifty-three percent say they are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent a year ago.
The poll conducted by Edelman Intelligence found the chief reason for dissatisfaction isn't wildfires or earthquakes but housing cost and availability.
================================================================
LOS ANGELES — A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving from the state — and not due to wildfires or earthquakes but the sky-high cost of living, according to a survey released Wednesday.
The online survey, conducted last month by Edelman Intelligence, found that 53 percent of Californians surveyed are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent polled a year ago. The desire to exit the nation's most populous state was highest among millennials, the survey noted.
"California is a great, great place if you're young and ambitious and daddy's paying the rent," said Joel Kotkin, a presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California. "It's similar to New York with the same dynamic, and maybe more of it."
Kotkin, who has researched California demographic and economic trends for decades, said he's astounded when he asks his Chapman students whether they think they'll be in the state in 10 years. "I would say the majority would say 'no,' — and many grew up in California," he said.
"There's no doubt that California's economy, for all of its strengths when it comes to innovation and creating these industries that people want to be part of, is struggling with high costs," said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist with online real estate site Zillow. "Costs have gotten way ahead of incomes in California, and that's making a lot of people think about whether it's worth the hurdles."
According to Edelman, 63 percent of millennials in the 2019 survey indicated they were considering a move from sunny California. The chief reason for dissatisfaction: housing.
In fact, 60 percent of millennials surveyed cited housing cost and availability when asked in general what reasons would make them leave California. That was slightly higher than the general population (55 percent), although sentiment among renters topped the survey with 65 percent citing housing factors as a reason to leave.
Californians believe housing costs are four times more threatening to the state's economy than high health costs. Residents also consider crime and security as a top-three concern.
Terrazas said millennials in California who are "tired of renting and looking to settle down and buy a home are finding it's often out of reach for them." He said this is especially the case in coastal job centers of the state, whether Los Angeles County or the San Francisco Bay Area.
"California just doesn't strike them as reasonable," the economist said. "The state has consistently seen much faster home value appreciation than most of the country, and the same goes for rent until about two years ago. Rents have begun to slow down, ... although they remain at high levels."
Terrazas said Southern California has high housing costs and on average lower incomes than Northern California. "In some ways, Southern California is in much dire straits," he said.
Even with higher average incomes in Silicon Valley, though, he said homebuyers now must spent about half of their pretax incomes on a monthly mortgage for a median home. The median home in the Silicon Valley market topped $1.2 million at the end of 2018, according to Zillow data.
Statewide, the median home value in California was $547,400 at the end of 2018, while the U.S. median home value was $223,900. By comparison, the median home value in New York state stood at $289,000 and $681,500 in New York City; New Jersey was $324,700.
The Edelman survey found 47 percent of Californians are considering moving out of the state in the next five years. Again, it found the rates among millennials were higher with 55 percent of them contemplating the move. And 57 percent of Californians with kids under 18 also were considering packing up and leaving in the next five years.
Chapman's Kotkin believes the next wave of discontent in California won't necessarily be focused on housing costs but taxes.
"Taxes are a real killer if you're upper middle class and whether you're a younger person trying to buy a house or you just want to be able to spend what you make," said Kotkin. "There's also concern among people looking to retire and having their income taxed into oblivion."
At 12.3 percent, California led the 50 states in 2018 with the highest top marginal tax rate, according to the Federation of Tax Administrators. And that doesn't include an additional 1-percent surcharge for those Californians with incomes of $1 million or more.
"The tax bill made it worse," Kotkin said, pointing out that the federal tax changes means deductions for state, local and property taxes now get capped at $10,000. "State taxes have become a significant factor now. We're getting into a situation where the middle class in California really can't hack it."
Overall, the Edelman survey involved a total of 1,900 California residents and was conducted Jan. 4 to Jan. 20. It said results were weighted to the Census to be representative of the state's adult population.
A report from California's Legislative Analyst's Office last year indicated Texas, Arizona, Oregon and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians. It also found families with kids and those Californians with only a high school education were most likely to flee to lower cost states than college educated residents.
Finally, the survey found more than 60 percent of residents feel that the best days of living in California are behind instead of ahead. And a large number of residents are "ambivalent" toward tech as an engine of prosperity, the survey said.
They did this to Maine and the state is in ruins.
They came from new York, Massachusetts, New Jersey etc. They get involved in politics, become local selectmen, get on the school board - become governor.
They know what’s best for the idiot local natives, though. In many cases they hate them outright. ‘ Love the state, hate the
natives ‘ - I have heard this any number of times.
Many are now trying to get out of the state as it is in just bad shape.
Here is an article about the current state of Maine you might find interesting.
https://knox.villagesoup.com/p/the-fragile-state-of-maine/1790075
Here is another - pretty scary stats. Job growth in the next ten years is expected to be - 94 jobs in total.
I post these articles for the people in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico to see where unlimited liberal migration to your state could lead to.
These people are so damned arrogant they never once consider
why they had to leave their home state to begin with.
My 30 year-old son just moved to Reno and was immediately informed by his co-workers that Nevadans detest Californians.
I understand Arizona is a bit more accepting.
Maybe if they voted differently the cost would go down.
They’ll blame Arnold, Bush, Cheney, Anaheim (Liberals call it Klanheim) Orange County housewives, white people, Trump for them moving out of California.
“————They get involved in politics, become local selectmen, get on the school board -—————”
-
And who votes for them at the very local level? People from Maine. They allow themselves to get snookered.
.
.
1 year and I’m leaving California. One more year, baby! I can’t wait. Taxes, regulations, high cost of living, liberal idiocy. There is nothing here but sunshine and natural beauty and those just aren’t enough for me to put up with the 4 reasons I just gave why the People’s Democratic Republic of California sucks.
Bye bye. Down to my last year and then I’m out of here! Whooooooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Not me. I am a Californian who was heading to Virginia, but it is now going full-boat commie liberal. I never thought I would see the day when the beautiful free Commonwealth of Virginia would be overrun by commie liberals. It makes me furious.
So now I have no clue where I’m going, but Charleston SC is the front runner. Mount Pleasant to be more exact. But I haven’t ruled out North Myrtle Beach SC if I can find a safe neighborhood that I’m sure is low crime. The boardwalk is awful for crime in the summer.
I may not be a die-hard conservative compared with somebody born and raised in Alabama or Idaho, but I can be trusted to vote a straight conservative ticket. I’m leaving California because I hate the rules and regs that make it what it is. The last thing I want to do is move to a new state and bring California with me.
Sorry. Texas is already full of illegals and freeloaders. Go to AZ. Their politics have crashed and burned already.
That never ever occurs to them...................
It would ironic if long-time CA observer, Joel Kotkin, 66, had to abandon CA in retirement, due to taxes.
Some parts of Arizona may be like WESTERN Washington/Oregon ... like Tucson Flagstaff and Sedona. The rest of Arizona pretty much despises liberals ... especially Kalifornia liberals
In my nice midwest town I now see almost as many CA plates as I see from some of the neighboring states.
The Progressives with their many different Left wing friends keep digging California’s hole deeper and deeper.
Our situation is caring for my wife's elderly mom (in her mid-90s with dementia), besides babysitting a granddaughter. Our eldest daughter and her husband and kids left SF for Iowa. She said it was too expensive here, and her husband was homesick for Des Moines where he was raised. She had a good job here, making over $150G and gave it up. In Des Moines they bought a run-down mansion for $80G, owning it outright now, and remodeled it into what would be a luxury home in SF. Easy going life now, no congestion, friendly people, with a lake, parks, museums, library, schools and cafes within walking distance. Plenty of normal folks there. That's where my wife and I will probably move. A younger daughter of ours lived in Austin Texas for some years, but came back here to the SF Bay Area. She missed the cosmopolitan stuff of the Bay Area (Austin is a dead zone in comparison). Higher costs but she has a good-paying job. It isn't all bad here, if you can afford it, because there is a lot to offer in California if you ignore the liberals and live in pockets of conservative areas.
Pls stay the heck out of Alabama y-all!
“Nor do I. Instead I have mind-bending, near daily conversations with Millenials who are well into their third decade who STILL buy into this crap. I think they’ve been totally captured by the Left and it’s just a matter of time till the country goes Socialist.”
Unfortunately, my experience matches yours, and I’ve come to the same conclusion. I sincerely hope my time on this earth is over before the left claims their victory.
The problem is that too many of them bring the Kalifornia mentality with them.
Yeah, but it’s a DRY heat and you can catch the rattlesnakes and scorpions for Saturday night cage fight.
Free entertainment!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.