Posted on 02/13/2019 1:21:37 PM PST by Red Badger
A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving the state due to the sky-high cost of living, with sentiment highest among millennials, according to a new study.
Fifty-three percent say they are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent a year ago.
The poll conducted by Edelman Intelligence found the chief reason for dissatisfaction isn't wildfires or earthquakes but housing cost and availability.
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LOS ANGELES — A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving from the state — and not due to wildfires or earthquakes but the sky-high cost of living, according to a survey released Wednesday.
The online survey, conducted last month by Edelman Intelligence, found that 53 percent of Californians surveyed are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent polled a year ago. The desire to exit the nation's most populous state was highest among millennials, the survey noted.
"California is a great, great place if you're young and ambitious and daddy's paying the rent," said Joel Kotkin, a presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California. "It's similar to New York with the same dynamic, and maybe more of it."
Kotkin, who has researched California demographic and economic trends for decades, said he's astounded when he asks his Chapman students whether they think they'll be in the state in 10 years. "I would say the majority would say 'no,' — and many grew up in California," he said.
"There's no doubt that California's economy, for all of its strengths when it comes to innovation and creating these industries that people want to be part of, is struggling with high costs," said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist with online real estate site Zillow. "Costs have gotten way ahead of incomes in California, and that's making a lot of people think about whether it's worth the hurdles."
According to Edelman, 63 percent of millennials in the 2019 survey indicated they were considering a move from sunny California. The chief reason for dissatisfaction: housing.
In fact, 60 percent of millennials surveyed cited housing cost and availability when asked in general what reasons would make them leave California. That was slightly higher than the general population (55 percent), although sentiment among renters topped the survey with 65 percent citing housing factors as a reason to leave.
Californians believe housing costs are four times more threatening to the state's economy than high health costs. Residents also consider crime and security as a top-three concern.
Terrazas said millennials in California who are "tired of renting and looking to settle down and buy a home are finding it's often out of reach for them." He said this is especially the case in coastal job centers of the state, whether Los Angeles County or the San Francisco Bay Area.
"California just doesn't strike them as reasonable," the economist said. "The state has consistently seen much faster home value appreciation than most of the country, and the same goes for rent until about two years ago. Rents have begun to slow down, ... although they remain at high levels."
Terrazas said Southern California has high housing costs and on average lower incomes than Northern California. "In some ways, Southern California is in much dire straits," he said.
Even with higher average incomes in Silicon Valley, though, he said homebuyers now must spent about half of their pretax incomes on a monthly mortgage for a median home. The median home in the Silicon Valley market topped $1.2 million at the end of 2018, according to Zillow data.
Statewide, the median home value in California was $547,400 at the end of 2018, while the U.S. median home value was $223,900. By comparison, the median home value in New York state stood at $289,000 and $681,500 in New York City; New Jersey was $324,700.
The Edelman survey found 47 percent of Californians are considering moving out of the state in the next five years. Again, it found the rates among millennials were higher with 55 percent of them contemplating the move. And 57 percent of Californians with kids under 18 also were considering packing up and leaving in the next five years.
Chapman's Kotkin believes the next wave of discontent in California won't necessarily be focused on housing costs but taxes.
"Taxes are a real killer if you're upper middle class and whether you're a younger person trying to buy a house or you just want to be able to spend what you make," said Kotkin. "There's also concern among people looking to retire and having their income taxed into oblivion."
At 12.3 percent, California led the 50 states in 2018 with the highest top marginal tax rate, according to the Federation of Tax Administrators. And that doesn't include an additional 1-percent surcharge for those Californians with incomes of $1 million or more.
"The tax bill made it worse," Kotkin said, pointing out that the federal tax changes means deductions for state, local and property taxes now get capped at $10,000. "State taxes have become a significant factor now. We're getting into a situation where the middle class in California really can't hack it."
Overall, the Edelman survey involved a total of 1,900 California residents and was conducted Jan. 4 to Jan. 20. It said results were weighted to the Census to be representative of the state's adult population.
A report from California's Legislative Analyst's Office last year indicated Texas, Arizona, Oregon and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians. It also found families with kids and those Californians with only a high school education were most likely to flee to lower cost states than college educated residents.
Finally, the survey found more than 60 percent of residents feel that the best days of living in California are behind instead of ahead. And a large number of residents are "ambivalent" toward tech as an engine of prosperity, the survey said.
[ are contemplating moving the state ]
This is earthquake level!!
“Millennials are more likely to trend right as they get older and wiser, they might have been indoctrinated in school but they are fast learners when hit with reality.”
I like to base my opinions on evidence. I see no evidence of your claims.
I sympathize, I sympathize but please separate them red and blue, send the red up here to WA State and send the blue on permanent vacay to Gaza.
Just like ya said..!
Californian Illegals everywhere
Got me snickering out loud with that.
This is why people with communicable diseases are quarantined.
Trump should use the paltry money from congress for the wall and build it around CA and MA and NY and IL to start. We can take care of the Southern border after that.
Maybe those states don't need a wall. Maybe if we just line the border with people every 50 feet or so yelling things like 'a man is a man and a woman is a woman is what some see as true' and 'some people think that all lives matter' they will be afraid to cross this unsafe space zone.
All part of the plan...smart people leave CA...housing market collapses (somewhat)...Silicon Valley lib companies need new engineers/workers...fill the void with foreign worker visas...let them vote...CA remains blue forever and becomes the slum state...
the problem is, they flee to other states, and vote the exact same way as they did in California, thereby destroying their new home. The best thing is to build a wall around California and keep them in there to live in the mess they created.
30+ years ago Kalifornians started leaving the state and going to Oregon and Washington states. Those two states are now just as screwed up economically and politically as Kalifornia. Today it appears that Idaho has become the state getting many of the fleeing Kalifornians. It’s just a question of time for Idaho to also transcend into a full blown communist state.
They keep voting for higher taxes, fees, and mass immigration ...all things that make everything more expensive. And, then, wonder why everything is more expensive.
They poison their own well, with idiot socialism, anti-American politicians, and sky high taxes, all for their socialist paradise, then when the government runs out of OPM (other peoples money) and comes for theirs, they flee like rats and infect their neighbors wells. I wish Trump would erect a border wall around CA, and other states had the right to refuse entry to their refugees.
Count me in the 57% that would like to move soon. We have some of the best public schools in the country but it may not be enough to keep up here. And yes, we plan to be long gone before AOC, Warren & their friends come for my IRA and real estate. Don’t worry about us coming to your state because we are headed overseas. The Swiss and Singapore will never respect a confiscation decree unless you are El Chapo or Bernie Madoff.
I’m wondering if sky-high taxes, absurd laws and regulations are a ploy to run off normal-thinking people and make the property available at fire-sale prices. Who bought up all the affected prime farmland when Obama turned off their water and bankrupted the farmers? The Chinese?
Same here but I've got four. Ten years till the youngest is 18.
They are locusts.
Far as I could see skimming the article, the loony leftist politics of Calif. were never mentioned as a reason to bail out?
There is a mental disconnect between their voting habits and their living environment.
They don’t see a connection.............................
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