Let's start by considering this timeline:
On 11 December, 2018, POTUS Trump launched a surprise attack on Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, in the Oval Office. The issue in contention was the urgent need to build 'The Wall', as a matter of national security. In front of national media, Trump exposed the two Democrat leaders as obstructive and inflexible, as well as himself as constructive and flexible. Trump threatened to shut down the government, if the Democratic leaders didn't strike a deal with him.
On 27 December, after two weeks of predictable fruitless negotiation with the Democratic leadership, Trump shut the government down.
On 20 January 2019, Trump tweeted the following:
Nancy Pelosi has behaved so irrationally & has gone so far to the left that she has now officially become a Radical Democrat. She is so petrified of the “lefties” in her party that she has lost control…And by the way, clean up the streets in San Francisco, they are disgusting!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 20, 2019
Last, on 23 January, Trump tweeted that the US no longer recognized Venezuelan strongman Maduro, as a legitimate President.
None of these events are random. Nor are they disconnected. In fact, they are all pre-planned, likely to the date.
Question: what's the link between them?
Answer: they're part of an ongoing strategy, designed by POTUS Trump and his inner circle, aimed at splintering the Democratic Party within and toxifying them without, in front of the public.
Think about it - The Wall divides Democrats, the shutdown divides Democrats, Venezuela divides Democrats.
Ditto, the SOTU divides Democrats, Covington divides Democrats.
The Democrats are divided. They are weak. Trump's GOP already controls the Senate. His aim now is to destroy the Democrats in the House. And in the middle of it all is Nancy Pelosi, the House Leader.
Ignore the Hype: Pelosi Is Weak
House Leader Nancy Pelosi is a dream come true for Trump. Aging, lacking energy, out of touch with ordinary Americans and almost certainly a heavy drinker, Pelosi's powers have been declining for some time.
Pelosi is also in a far weaker position than many realize. Rumblings against her from within the Democrats were clear back in 2017. And let's not forget that when Pelosi nominated herself (unopposed) as Speaker in November, 2018, she didn't even win the minimum Democratic Party votes required (218). In fact, 32 opposed her.
This places Pelosi in a difficult situation now, as Trump knows full well. On the one hand, she must placate the vocal extremist elements within the Party, a rag-tag rabble of radicals such as the millenial socialist, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the anti-semitic bigot, Ilhan Omar. These people will not negotiate, or strike deals with Trump's GOP about, say, The Wall. Lacking intelligence and maturity, they simply don't know how to negotiate. Their approach is infantile, zero-sum, ideological.
Incredible as it may seem, these extremists are popular with the Democrat base. A recent poll showed that 74% of Democrats would vote for Cortez as POTUS, which reveals how extreme the Democrat base has become. But of course, the same poll showed that 24% of Democrats would NOT vote for Cortez. So as well as placating the extremists, Pelosi must also reassure the more moderate elements in the Democratic Party who are not radical extremists, or she risks losing them.
Of course, these more moderate Democrat representatives want a bi-partisan deal on the Wall.
To a strategic genius such as Donald J Trump, this crisis within the Democrats can be summarized in one word : OPPORTUNITY.
Trump's Strategy : Splinter & Toxify
Back to the interconnected events, listed above. Observe that it was Trump himself, who initiated these moves. This is very important, as it gives him control of the terrain, momentum and narrative, forcing the Democrats into continual defensive and reactive postures.
Since the Oval Office ambush, what have we seen? A two-pronged strategy. Trump, in a position of strength, has been able to continually expose the Democrats as anti-American, obstructive, inflexible, uncaring and extreme. He has also been able to present himself as the opposite. The image of POTUS Trump, working hard and alone in the Oval Office over the holiday break, while the Democrats partied with lobbyists overseas, was powerful. It would have secretly resonated with millions of Americans.
As well as toxifying the Democrats, Trump has been splintering them, by forcing factions within the Democratic Party to migrate to different and opposing positions, on wedge issues. Venezuela and the Wall, for example, have been chosen carefully, as they split factions within the Democrats.
Watch. Trump will introduce new wedge issues into the public sphere and will turn the screws harder, turning faction against faction. This will force Pelosi into extreme and potentially conflicting positions, making her repellent to the more moderate (and by now, likely extremely concerned) Democratic House Reps.
A Balancing Act
Believe it or not, Trump likely prefers Pelosi remaining in position as House Leader, for the moment. Consider Trump's calculus. If Pelosi is forced out, it means that the radicals would almost certainly take over the Democratic Party. It doesn't mean that they will be any less crazy, but it may mean that they can unify under an agreed leader, unify their base and project outwards.
With Pelosi and Schumer in place, however, Trump is far better placed to foment division within the enemy camp, as we have been seeing. Civil war between the radical and moderate factions may even break out. It's likely that Trump prefers this outcome for now, over alternatives.
SpyGate
Of course, there's another thing the entire Democratic Party knows - Trump is holding the ultimate card over them all, which is full declassification in unredacted form, of their role in SpyGate, the worst scandal in American history.
Prediction : Trump will again use this issue , to foment division in the enemy camp. Why? The extremists, with House Reps implicated in SpyGate, want to start investigations and to see Trump destroyed. However the moderates, who understand how devastating the SpyGate reveal would be for the Democrats, are likely advising extreme caution about investigating Trump as threatened. Again, Trump can (and in my opinion, will) use SpyGate to pit faction against faction.
Endgame : Total Democrat Wipeout, 2020
As Abraham Lincoln famously observed, 'a house divided against itself, cannot stand.' And as the famous saying goes, 'never get in the way of an enemy, in the process of destroying itself.'
Trump understands both observations perfectly.
Forget the hype. The Democratic Party is divided as never before and Nancy Pelosi is right in the middle of it. If Pelosi was as strong as her FakeNews proxies were making her out to be, she would be able to respond with some force. But as we have seen, she simply has no answer to the chaos in her own camp.
Trump knows that Pelosi is the Party's weak link and by exploiting her weakness, is masterfully splintering and toxifying the Democratic Party. This will continue in intensity and complexity, all the way to November 2020. And the best part? The Democrats, arrogant as ever, simply can't see it.
As we have observed many times, once you see Trump's genius, you can't not see it. Hardened over decades of negotiating thousands of deals with far more strategic opponents than the 2019 Democrats, Trump is far better able to outsmart them, using complex, well planned campaigns that they're simply unable to cope with.
Have no fear. POTUS Trump will have his Wall. Or should I say, his Walls. One of them he has already built, in the Democratic Party itself. And the best news of all? If the above is correct, we get to watch them divide, fight, fall and destroy themselves, until the lights go out in their wipeout at the hands of POTUS Trump on November 3, 2020.
