Posted on 11/17/2018 5:04:50 AM PST by reaganaut1
Elections have a way of blowing up partisan conceits—see what happened to the Democratic Party’s Electoral College “lock” in 2016. This year Democrats busted one of their own cherished myths by proving that Republican gerrymanders weren’t preventing them from retaking the House of Representatives. There’s a lesson here for voters and judges.
State legislatures have been drawing congressional boundaries to favor one party or another since America’s founding. During the 40 years of sustained Democratic control of the House in the late 20th century, this worked in the Democrats’ favor. As political scientist Matt Grossmann has shown, Democrats sometimes enjoyed congressional majorities nearly 10 percentage points larger than their share of the House popular vote.
Then came the Republican romp of 2010, followed by the Census and the regular 10-year redistricting to reflect population ebb and flow across the U.S. The new GOP majorities in several states drew districts that increased their representation in the House, as Democrats also did where they had a partisan advantage.
For many commentators the post-2010 redistricting created a crisis of democracy by supposedly locking Democrats out of power. Days before the 2018 election the New York Times’ David Leonhardt cited Republican gerrymandering as evidence that the U.S. could “slide toward Hungarian autocracy.”
Well, so much for that. Democrats last week made their largest gain in House seats since 1974 and appear to be closing in on a 233-seat House majority with several races still not called. This means Democrats will hold about 53.6% of seats—a 7.1% edge. And, what do you know, Democratic House candidates nationwide have 52.8% of votes—7.3% more than Republicans, according to the latest Cook Political Report tally.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Ask Dave Brat about gerrymandering.
Didn’t democrats gain house seats in Pennsylvania by gerrymandering? Gerrymandering is just fine and dandy when they do it.
I suspect he’ll have some company from NY after the next census. I have a feeling NY-23’s days may be numbered.
Re-districting will bare bad news, I hear, since the state house is ALL blue now. 2 years to correct it.
I left NY in 1980 for good, but, like CA, NY had some Republican Statewide office holders until around 2000.
Now, being Republican in either state is like having leprosy.
That’s a very interesting transformation. Theories welcome.
At least one is what I’m hearing. And I’m betting Reed’s district in high on the list to screw over.
And given that NYS is circling the bowl, look what’s first on the priority list...
http://www.wrvo.org/post/abortion-rights-likely-first-order-business-nys-senate-january
You won’t change the Southern Tier voters to liberals and the district already includes Ithaca, so They will need a bigger city in the new district. Look for Reed’s district to be combined with Binghamton.
New York State is dominated by New York City, which has always voted Democrat. New York and California enact policies which are hostile to business and wealth accumulation. Concurrent with that, their policies are attractive to those elements of society that are less productive and gravitate toward public assistance. Over time, businesses and affluent people who tend to vote Republican leave the state. Attracted to the state are people who come for the hand outs. Mathematically, you would think that eventually there would be a tipping point. (Damn the Federal Government if it ever bails them out). But in the meantime, both states just get bluer and bluer.
I left NY after I kih’d me sum mufus.
New York is lost. I grew up in Orange County, which was reliably Red for generations. Then as people from NYC were priced out of LI and Westchester, they kept coming North. Now the County is Purple and headed Blue. We used to be able to overcome the huge minority vote in Newburgh and Middletown with overwhelming votes in the other towns and cities, but as they get less Red, that stops. I got out and moved to North Florida in 2013, my Brother and his family moved to NC earlier this year, couldn’t take the taxes anymore.
Both houses of the legislature remain firmly in GOP hands and word is that the PA Supreme Court will be elected by district rather than at large in the very near future.
We lost 4 seats in PA alone.
And 3 of them in Eastern PA, I think we’d have lost under the old map anyway, given the results.
Lambchop would be gone though, losing to Reschenthaler in his original district, and Keith Rothfus would still be there.
I worried the rodents would steal 5 seats out of that illegal PA map, instead of 2 (getting a tie). They just stole the 5 elsewhere (and 35 more).
Argh ! Disregard that last post. I added up the figures wrong, it was 4 seats stolen, not 2.
By my calculation we’d be only one better (Rothfus still there) under the old map, not 2.
Dent, Costello, Meehan seats likely gone anyway. No? I know the old Dent seat voted Trump by a bit but the rat won by enough I think she’d have taken it anyway. I forgot how the Meehan and Costello seats were.
One good thing, Barletta carried Luzerne county and Wolf’s margin there was unimpressive (Lakawanna sucked though). Matt Cartright should be high on our target list, I’d like to see Chirin run again.
I’m less bullish on gettting rid of damn Lambchop, I hate that new district.
Of course the Meehan seat is now unwinnable and the Costello one is unlikely to return.
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