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Nate Silver: I'm not at all convinced there's movement nationally toward Democrats
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| Nov 3, 2018
| Nate Silver
Posted on 11/03/2018 6:21:46 PM PDT by 11th_VA
I'm not at all convinced there's movement nationally toward Democrats—the generic ballot has been very flat. But, they may be closing well in swing districts because of their big spending advantage, which ought to be a bit scary for R's...
But to bring this back: When people look at 538 and ask "what if the polls are wrong?", that's *the question our model is trying to answer*. The polls say Ds will win the House. Our model says, based on how accurate polls have been in the past, there's a 15-20% chance they won't...
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018election; 2018midterms; 2020election; bluewave; election2018; election2020; natesilver
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His Polls have never been wrong ... BTW Nate, I'm not scared ...
1
posted on
11/03/2018 6:21:46 PM PDT
by
11th_VA
To: 11th_VA
2
posted on
11/03/2018 6:22:38 PM PDT
by
Paladin2
To: 11th_VA
LOL Last week he said the Dems had a 90 percent chance of winning the House I knew that bag of poo as we got closer to the election would backtrack to save his own ass
To: 11th_VA
What the cuck happened? Just last week Nate Silver was telling us 85% chance Democrats take the House.
Now he’s saying election movement not towards them. Geez... LOL!!!
4
posted on
11/03/2018 6:24:03 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: 11th_VA
But but... 86% take the house... if that’s not a move towards democrats...
5
posted on
11/03/2018 6:24:12 PM PDT
by
Skywise
To: 11th_VA
Nate Silver should consider going back to baseball...
6
posted on
11/03/2018 6:24:35 PM PDT
by
TaxPayer2000
(The United States shall guarantee to every state in this union a republican form of government...)
To: 11th_VA
His average in polling is worse that an a “Double A” batting average. Yet, he keeps making money!
7
posted on
11/03/2018 6:24:36 PM PDT
by
Baynative
( "If you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu.")
To: 11th_VA
Now is when Silver turns to lead.
8
posted on
11/03/2018 6:24:51 PM PDT
by
COUNTrecount
(If only Harvey Weinstein's bathrobe could talk.)
To: 11th_VA
9
posted on
11/03/2018 6:25:50 PM PDT
by
dontreadthis
(A TIMELINE OF TREASON on Profile Page)
To: 11th_VA
Wednesday is going to be awesome.
L
10
posted on
11/03/2018 6:25:54 PM PDT
by
Lurker
(President Trump isn't our last chance. President Trump is THEIR last chance.)
To: Skywise
So there’s never been a Blue Wave? We’ve been rick rolled all along!
11
posted on
11/03/2018 6:26:14 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: Paladin2
"Serious back-pedaling?" Well..it would seem so... If that's the same Silver that Drudge is always touting..
12
posted on
11/03/2018 6:27:10 PM PDT
by
unread
(Joe McCarthy was right.......)
To: Baynative
I don’t think Silver does any polling. He just analyzes bogus polls done by others.
13
posted on
11/03/2018 6:27:24 PM PDT
by
KevinB
(If I'm ever arrested, I'm switching parties.)
To: 11th_VA
He is saying the spending in House races is way in favor of the Democrats.
Essentially Soros and Bloomberg and Steyer are trying to buy an election...
The stakes are very high.
14
posted on
11/03/2018 6:27:35 PM PDT
by
marktwain
(President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
To: 11th_VA
The blue wave narrative is strictly a MSM creation based on nothing but their wet dreams,
Nat Silver finally figured that out....?
Give the man a gold star!
15
posted on
11/03/2018 6:27:53 PM PDT
by
Popman
("GOD´S NOT LOOKING FOR PARTNERSHIP WITH US, BUT OWNERSHIP OF US")
To: Lurker
I can’t wait for the meltdown... should it happen - yuge manatee!
16
posted on
11/03/2018 6:27:59 PM PDT
by
goldstategop
(In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
To: 11th_VA
BTW - Nate has Dana Rohrabacher trailing by 1.2%, latest poll has Dana Rohrabacher up by 9% I believe ...
17
posted on
11/03/2018 6:28:20 PM PDT
by
11th_VA
("When passions are most inflamed, fairness is most in jeopardy." - Susan Collins)
To: KevinB
Yep. Nates model is based on polls, just like it was in ‘16.
GIGO
18
posted on
11/03/2018 6:29:57 PM PDT
by
dynoman
(Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
To: goldstategop
He is right about one thing, Democrats have a big advantage in spending. If the wacked out anti America neocommunist billionaires weren’t pumping untold millions into these races the Mob wouldn’t stand much of a chance of winning any of them.
To: hardspunned
So did Jeb Bush.
Please clap.
20
posted on
11/03/2018 6:32:30 PM PDT
by
Skywise
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