Posted on 11/03/2018 5:29:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Totals for Florida early vote.
Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 67,540
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 10,638
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 56,902
At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 5,280
The REP lead has ranged from 53K to 75K over the past week.
Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.
Ballots have not been counted yet.
That is a huge x-factor. Unaffiliated turnout is also creeping up. Now up to 18% of all turnout.
That’s a lot to take in. What’s the gist of this?
“the ‘experts’ may be in for a surprise Tuesday night”
As Ravi says, I have to pinch myself. The EV numbers look good in so many states, basically nationally.
The Senate is being fought out in R friendly states. The House is being fought out in D friendly states (NJ, VA, CA, PA - redistricting).
I’m sticking with my predictions. Republican House: 224-211, Republican Senate: 54-46. With Senate potential for even more.
The numbers seem fairly good for the GOP, but I fear all the main races will be hard to win.
Sarasota is not that Red anymore.
I was born there .
its was a midwest retirement place.
But the Citrus and tomatoe farmers dragged in tons of Mexicans in the 80s and NYC lefties discovered the place in the 90s along with the NY Boca Raton crowd .
They have destroyed the place.
The city is blue while the south county red .
Thank you for the update. Speedy, would you venture a guess on what you think happens this weekend with the numbers in Florida? Thanks again for your good work.
if all these republicans that already won in districts that Clinton won, why would they now lose after 2 years of great success with Trump, especially with their own personal economy. he has had great results. it makes no sense that most of them would now lose. am I right to think that????
I have heard that some of the panhandle counties have been extended thru Monday because of the storm damage.
That is correct but Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Will be open Sunday while many Trump leaning counties end their early vote Saturday. Churches will be bussing people to the polls in Democrat rich areas.
2012 Florida Gary Johnson only got 44,726 votes
That means TRUMP has alot of WOKE #NeverTRUMP votes to come
Folks...you cannot estimate any voting outcomes in Florida or any other state, for that matter, unless you take into account all prior to election day types of voting. You must roughly calculate the Republican, Democrat, Other & No Party affiliation (Independent) votes.
That means guessing and I for one believe that the breakdown on Election Day evening after all the Florida votes are counted will show “roughly” this outcome of results.
Republicans will give 95% of their votes cast to Republicans, Democrats will split their voting pattern, giving 60% of their votes to Democrats and 40% of their votes to Republicans, Others & Independents, will give 60% of their votes to Republicans and 40% of their votes to Democrats.
The Republicans will have a very successful Election Day...across the board. IMHO....The Democrat Party was “insane” to go with someone like Andrew Gillum for Governor. I just believe the overwhelming number of Florida voters will reject this gent...big time. Bill Nelson will go down to defeat with Gillum, mainly because Nelson is an extremely weak candidate to begin with.
With all the pollster, Media & pundit rambling about “Texas, Florida & Georgia”...I believe Election Day will deliver Texas, Florida & Georgia handily to the Trump Republicans...across the board!!! We shall soon see!!!
Tomorrow will probably be a big day for the Rats it’s the day the black churches have the big vote push so let’s see where we are Monday.
The numbers don’t lie. They really don’t...
The numbers don’t lie. They really don’t...
The numbers don’t lie. They really don’t...
Because at the same time in 2016, the Dems had a 72k in person vote lead and Trump still won by > 100k votes and Rubio by > 700k votes. So unless Scott/Desantis do far worse with Is than Trump did in 16 (doubtful), we’re in a very good spot relative to 2016 when we already won.
It’s so typical of what happens when leftist northerners move south to take advantage of the nice weather and lower cost of living. They end up infecting the places to where they move, pushing their progressive will and agendas on local municipalities, diluting the conservatism of the area. I live in very conservative upstate SC, and I can only imagine how changed this area will be one day, saturated with progressivism, once the northern lefties find out what a great place it is to live here.
The churches, non-partisan (cough, cough) are allowed to help transport people after church to the polls.They call it Souls to the Polls.
I like the 3rd chart. The 2018 early vote vs 2016.
The line through the chart appears to be a “best fit equation”.
Notice how the counties that didn’t support Trump (Miami, Broward, Orange) are in the 50-60% turnout range vs 2016.
The counties that supported Trump are turning out at a higher percentage.
Couple of outliers. Bay supported Trump but is only at 50% turnout. On the other hand Sumter supported Trump but is at 85% ev turnout compared to 2016.
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