Posted on 11/03/2018 5:29:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Totals for Florida early vote.
Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 67,540
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 10,638
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 56,902
At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 5,280
The REP lead has ranged from 53K to 75K over the past week.
Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.
Ballots have not been counted yet.
By election day, 2016, DEMs had a lead of 96,450. They appear to be well short of that number this year.
GOP is on track to win Florida statewide races.
ping
Methos8 spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/edit#gid=210512823
Is it correct that the only EV counties in Florida that will be open on Monday are the red panhandle counties?
That is my understanding.
How can you say that the GOP is on track to win in Florida, when the Dem in-person vote - the method by which most folks cast their vote - is more than 10 thousand in the Dems favor? I live in Florida and I’m seeing much more pro Gillum activity than that for DeSantis.
11/03/18: DEMs lead by 10,638
11/05/16: DEMs lead by 79,542
That’s why. Keep Calm and Vote On.
So he uses actual numbers to make an educated guess.
You use a personal observation of the one part of Florida you live in.
If you think it is so useless because of that, then dont vote.
That’s for in person early voting.
“then dont vote.”
Keep Calm and Vote On.
How can you say that the GOP is on track to win in Florida, when the Dem in-person vote -
IN 2016 the Dems were way ahead in the early vote like 65-100K (I don’t recall the exact number) but still lost Florida by over 100K votes
Nothing more to add.
Yes a small boost Monday.
Your personal experience does not reflect the state. It is actually amazing the Repubs are within 10,000 at this time in EV. Usually, Dems lead by over 100,000 in EV (Early In-Person Voting) at this time.
Republicans usually have to overcome a Dem lead on Election Day. This looks promising because Republicans will not start in a deficit, but have a decent lead.
More to add......Vote early and ofter if your a Rep......all Dem’s vote next Sunday.
I want to repost some thoughts from TrumpCoat. This was posted yesterday.
“Hi, I’ve been lurking your comments because I love crunching numbers from early votes as well. I predicted 48 out of 50 states on another forum - the other 2 were MI and WI which came up as a tie in my model so I gave to Hillary.
I’ve loved Methos8’s spreadsheet and analyzed it.
A few questions that have came up - which way do I’s vote? To answer that question, I did a little digging of my own. I took the early votes from 2014 and 2016 by county in FL, and assigned an estimated I percentage support for Trump by taking Trump’s final margin of victory for that county and multiplied that by the early vote totals, assigning all the R’s to the Trump side, and dividing the leftover number by the I early vote turnout.
These are the graphs I came up with, feel free to verify and reuse them. https://m.imgur.com/a/I4977Z6 As you can see, I support tends to lean with the county’s overall leaning. I also made 2 sets of graphs based on total turnout, not just I turnout, showing that counties that support Trump are coming out in force.
Anyway what the graphs say is we’re comfortably smack between 2014 and 2016 in “redness” and I’s probably leaning that way.
Wait, that’s not all! We have a few outlier counties in terms of high turnout relative to 2014. Here’s what I found: FL passed a law recently that all universities must have early voting stations. Alachua is a college county, so no surprise that. Also, Broward, Orange, and Osceola had the largest influx of Hurricane Maria refugees - but Osceola is the only majority Puerto Rico county. Take these counties out and Bay, and that’s a more accurate trendline for where the rest of the nation that isn’t so affected by hurricanes or college voting laws may be going. I’s might be just as red as 2014!”
also when Trump won by a little more than 100,000, Rubio won by 700,000 so there is potential there for Desantis and Scott to do better! We shall see
The Dems are ripping down Desantis signs everywhere so feel free to put them back up Or place them !
I do where everyone I see them rip down.
Steyer has hired paid people in places .
Go to Next door and read the ads .
Its fake !
Biscayne Bay will have numerous floating ballot boxes found in the nick of time to pull it out for the Dems.
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