[Ravi]

That’s a lot to take in. What’s the gist of this?

[SpeedyInTexas]

I like the 3rd chart. The 2018 early vote vs 2016.

The line through the chart appears to be a “best fit equation”.

Notice how the counties that didn’t support Trump (Miami, Broward, Orange) are in the 50-60% turnout range vs 2016.

The counties that supported Trump are turning out at a higher percentage.

Couple of outliers. Bay supported Trump but is only at 50% turnout. On the other hand Sumter supported Trump but is at 85% ev turnout compared to 2016.

[TrumpCoat]

That’s a lot to take in. What’s the gist of this?

Dots in upper right & lower left quadrant good. Dots in upper left & lower right quadrant bad. Many "bad" dots have an extenuating factor that would make a more positive trendline if extrapolated to rest of country.

Here is the 2014 overall turnout with the worst impacted counties removed (Bay hit by Michael; Osceola had disproportionate amount of Maria refugees; Alachua is predominantly college students - FL passed early voting law for colleges). Now, we still have to factor these impacts in for FL, but maybe they provide an accurate guess for where the rest of country is going.



However this didn't change I turnout relative to 2014. See rest of graphs here (this is with the 3 counties removed): https://imgur.com/a/vXwSEEu