Posted on 10/15/2018 5:15:54 PM PDT by dontreadthis
Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide. But the GOP still has the early advantage when in comes to the 2018 General Election. As of 8:00 AM this morning, over 327,000 people have voted in Florida, a 2.5% overall turnout rate. The Republican turnout rate 3.22%, while Democratic turnout rate is only at 2.44%. NPAs and minor party voter turnout is only at 1.65%. The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’, which was mentioned in the last projection model article, is -11.16, heavily favoring the Republicans.
As far as the state projection, the generic Republican vote is at 51.69% statewide, and the generic Democratic vote is at 44.8%. This represents a .39% loss in GOP vote overnight, and an increase of .5% for the Democrats. The reason for this is probably the increase in votes being reported in South Florida. As for the reason the Republicans are leading, a disproportionate amount of the current vote is still coming from Southwest Florida.
Today’s projection map is the first map that we have introduced that replicates the 2016 presidential election (edit: with the exception of Sarasota County). With that, we can probably assume that there might not be much of a difference when it comes to the look of the map. However, we might see some changes. Some of it is good news for Republicans, and some of it good news for Democrats. For Republicans, the “Big Three” counties in South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach), are under-performing for Democrats compared to VBM numbers in 2016. Duval County is also under-performing for the Democrats. As for the Democrats, they are seeing some of the margins that Republicans ran up in the past starting to come down. Counties like Brevard, St. Johns, and Indian River in the east, and Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa in the west, are showing 2% – 5% swings in favor of the Democrats compared to 2016’s VBM numbers.
If we compare this to VBM totals at this point in 2016, it is not good news for Democrats. On October 14th, 2016, the composition of VBM ballots submitted was 42.4% for the Republicans and 40.15% for the Democrats. As of today, 45.58% of the ballots submitted have been Republican ballots, with only 36.32% being Democratic ballots. This explains the large enthusiasm gap as well as the commanding projected lead for Republicans. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the VBM vote by only 1.5%. This early deficit should be a major worry for any Democrat running, either statewide or locally.
hope this rubs off on DeSantis ‘cause he doesn’t seem to be doing anything for himself
https://mobile.twitter.com/PPDNews
“Overnight, Democrats were able to make some gains on the Republicans statewide.”
Overnight, many ballots can be created in a Rat ballot mill.
VBM = ?
vote by mail
Have you seen the new Attack ads or flyers ?
They are everywhere Now .
Gillum sued to stop them .
It appears poster keep reposting out negative stuff fhey read here weeks ago ?
please explain
business opportunity since Fla is big state
Baloney that the enthusiasm of the rallies is short lived!
Those people are going to vote.
GOP tends to get stronger as we get closer to the elections, so the momentum in on our side.
Desantis will win despite his poor campaign, it is a GOP year.
Very true .
ok. Perhaps my frustration.
It is my impression that Gillum’s commie pedigree has yet to be widely known which would account for his polling above DeSantis.
I realize that this is not a Senate race, but Gillum needs alot more trashing a la McCaskil and Sinema
Excellent!
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